Yahoo Fantasy Golf Contest Tournament Preview- The Open Championship
Welcome Yahoo Contestants to this week’s preview of The Open Championship (also referred to as The British Open and The Open). The big news is obviously the injury to Rory McIlroy that will prevent him from playing, which leaves the door even more wide open than it already was for Jordan Spieth to win the third leg of the grand slam.
Now without further ado, let’s dive into The Open.
The host of this year’s Open Championship is the Old Course at St Andrews, which many people consider the “home of golf”. The Open Championship has been held at the Old Course at St Andrews 28 times with the most recent being in 2010, when Louis Oosthuizen shot 16 under par and won by seven strokes over runner-up Lee Westwood. The Old Course houses 112 bunkers which are all individually named and have their own unique story and history behind them. The two most famous are called the “Hell Bunker” on the 14th hole and the “Road Hole Bunker” on the 17th hole. The Swilcan Bridge, spanning the first and 18th holes, has become a famous landmark and captured on just about every portrait of the Old Course. 156 players will be fighting for the championship and the Claret Jug this week and the Top 70 players (plus ties) will make the cut and battle over the weekend. The Old Course measures 7,305 yards in length and is a Par 72, featuring two par three holes and two par five holes.
One of the major metrics we look at for every tournament is tournament history. Since The Open alternates courses each year we have to go back to 2010, when it was last held at The Old Course. However, every year another tournament called the Alfred Dunhill Links Championship is held at St Andrews. One of the first three rounds plus the final round are played at the Old Course (the other two rounds alternate between two other courses). We will look closely at who has had success in that tournament and plays well there. We will also be looking at tournament history from The Open Championship over the past five years. 2010 was actually played at St Andrews so we have an exact comparison there, but other years were not. However, all of the courses played for The Open are set up similarly, plus the terrain is comparable with a links style. Obviously there is a tremendous amount of pressure on the players at The Open and some players have shown a propensity to shine and others to fade. By studying the historical results of The Open, it is obvious certain players tend to play well year after year despite the fact that the venues are different. Finally, we need to analyze the results from this year’s U.S Open, which took place three weeks ago. Not only will this show us who is playing well currently, but the host course for that event was Chambers Bay, which is also a links style course, and similar to St Andrews.
Statistically we will be analyzing several key statistics including strokes gained tee-to-green, total driving (driving distance plus driving accuracy), greens in regulation, scrambling, and par 4 scoring. Players who have excelled in those categories have had the most success in The Open Championship and The Alfred Dunhill Links Championship in the past. One interesting note is that the last five winners of the British Open have played in the Scottish Open the week before. This is not an end all be all stat, but just a point of interest that we thought we would mention.
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The A-List:
The Favorites:
Henrik Stenson
Adam Scott
Bubba Watson
Sergio Garcia
Tiger Woods
First off, we are taking the stance of fading Tiger Woods. We have not recommended him this season one time and he has not burned us yet. We just do not think the upside is great for Tiger and need to see him actually perform before we get on board. People have made a big deal about him being “back” after his opening round at Greenbrier, but he finished T32, big deal. We like three guys on this list to really take a run at The Claret Jug. First is Henrik Stenson, who is not being talked about throughout the fantasy golf world and we are ok with that. As you know Stenson started the season on fire, then suffered from a mysterious virus causing him to lose nearly 20 pounds, which affected his play tremendously. Recently he has looked healthier and heading back to his normally dominate play including a runner-up finish two weeks ago at the BMW International Open on the European Tour. His British Open History includes a T39 in 2014, 2nd in 2013, DNP in 2012, 68th in 2011, and T3 in 2010 at St Andrews. Statistically he is the cream of the crop ranking in Total Driving (2nd), Greens in Regulation (1st), Strokes Gained Tee-To-Green (7th), Strokes Gained Putting (16th) Par 4 Scoring (13th), Scrambling (71st). Recent Alfred Dunhill History – MC in 2012, MC in 2011. We are expecting a great tournament out of Stenson this week and look for him the final group on Sunday. The other guy we like a lot and you will not ever have to worry about your usage of him being too high is Adam Scott. Like Stenson, there is not a lot of buzz around him, mostly because he started the season so poorly. Scott has absolutely owned British Open events lately placing 5th last year, 3rd in 2013, and 2nd in 2012. Much of his struggles early in the season were involving a long layoff due to family reasons, his change of caddie, and his putting struggles due to his change from the anchor putter. Those factors seem to be behind him as he has Steve Williams back on his bag for the rest of the season and he has gone back to his anchor putter for the time being and he actually putted a lot better en route to his great T4 finish at Chambers Bay at the U.S Open. Outside of putting (189th in strokes gained putting), Scott has been solid in most statistical categories: Total Driving (7th), Greens in regulation (88th), Strokes gained tee-to-green (6th), Par 4 scoring (35th). Our affinity for Brooks Koepka has been apparent this year as he has been included in our recommendations most every week. How have we done? How is eight Top 25s, four Top 10s, a third place finish and a win in 14 events sound? Although he is a volatile player within tournaments he has been extremely consistent in making cuts with 13 made cuts in 14 PGA Tour events this season. Statistically he is rock solid: Stroke Gained Tee-To-Green (42nd), Total Driving (32nd), Greens in Regulation (30th), Scrambling (163rd), Par 4 Scoring (30th). Koepka has spent some time playing on the European Tour which gives him a lot of experience on links style courses. Koepka placed T22 last week at The Scottish Open. He only has two British Open appearances and took 67th last year and MC in 2013. He did place 9th at The Alfred Dunhill last year at St Andrews and 50th in 2013. The final stud we like in the A-List is another out of favor guy with the public and that is Sergio Garcia. Generally, Americans just do not like this guy, but for The Open Championship he has been an absolute monster. Garcia has eight career Top 10s in The Open Championship and a runner-up to McIlroy last year, plus a T21 in 2013, MC in 2012, T9 in 2011, T14 in 2010. His stats break down like this: Total Driving (19th), Greens in Regulation (26th), Strokes Gained Tee-To-Green (4th), Strokes Gained Putting (135th), Par 4 Scoring (13th), Scrambling (126th). In his last five appearances, he has finished T25 at The Travelers Championship, T18 at the U.S Open, MC at the Irish Open, T22 at The Espana Open, and T2 at The Players. For our sleepers, we are going to give you two, Tommy Fleetwood and Marc Warren. Fleetwood has been playing well with a T10 finish last week at the Scottish Open, T27 at the U.S Open, MC at the Memorial, T21 at The Irish Open, T6 at BMW PGA Championship, T33 at Open de Espana, and T5 at WGC Match Play. We love the success he has had on the Old course at The Alfred Dunhill with a 2nd in 2014, 5th in 2013, 55th in 2012, and 5th in 2011. He has not played in enough events to rank on the PGA Tour, but on the European Tour he ranks 11th in greens in regulation, 70th in driving accuracy, and 27th in driving distance. The big downfall to his game is his awful putting in which he ranks almost dead last on the European tour at 201st. This will be his downfall in a major championship as you absolutely need to hit big putts. Marc Warren took T4 last week at The Scottish Open. His most recent appearances before that resulted in a MC at Alstom de France, T27 at the U.S Open, MC at the Irish Open, and T18 at the BMW on the European Tour. Warren is very good at St Andrews placing at The Alfred Dunhill 25th in 2014, 35th in 2013, 34th in 2012, 5th in 2011, MC in 2010, 19th in 2009, and 13th in 2010. He placed 39th at The British Open last year and missed the cut the year before.
Our Picks: Stenson, Scott, Garcia, Koepka,
Sleeper Picks: Fleetwood and Warren. We also kind of like J.B Holmes as well.
The B-List:
The Favorites-
Jordan Spieth
Dustin Johnson
Justin Rose
Jason Day
Rickie Fowler
We are going to be fading Jason Day as his health is just too big of a concern, and we are unsure as to whether he will be able to fight through it like he did at Chambers Bay. We are not going to do anything fancy with the B-List this week, as we like the favorites the best. How much does Rory’s injury help Jordan Spieth’s chances of winning the third leg of the grand slam? The answer is a ton. After the first round of the John Deere Classic last week, people were ready for Spieth to be making his trip over to Scotland early on Saturday, but Spieth showed his moxy and fired a stellar second round 64 to not only make the cut, but to get back into contention and followed it up with a personal best 61 on Saturday and then closed it out for the win on Sunday. The kid is absolutely unbelievable. The last two years at The Open Spieth had a 44th in 2013 and 36th last year. We don’t need to tell you that he is on a different planet this year than in the past. He obviously looked good on the links style, Chambers Bay, so there is absolutely nothing that we can see that would make us not think he will compete for the Claret Jug. His statistical rankings include: Total Driving (42th), Greens in Regulation (48th), Strokes Gained Tee-To-Green (3rd), Strokes Gained Putting (21st), Par 4 Scoring (1st), Scrambling (5th). If you still have him available in the Yahoo Contest, go ahead and use him, if you do not look to the second best option, Dustin Johnson Outside of the final hole at Chambers Bay, Johnson played brilliantly throughout the U.S Open and the entire year so far with seven Top 10s and a win at the WGC Cadillac Championship. He ranks as follows in the key statistical categories: Total Driving (47th), Greens in Regulation (84th), Strokes Gained Tee-To-Green (10th), Strokes Gained Putting (123rd), Par 4 Scoring (46th), Scrambling (42nd). Johnson has had quite a bit of success on links style courses and in British Opens. He took T12 in 2014, T32 in 2013, T9 in 2012, T2 in 2011, and T14 in 2010 at St Andrews. Justin Rose is also an excellent choice in the B-List. He has not had the best results in the British Open with a 23rd last year, MC in 2013 and 2012, 44th in 2011, MC in 2010, 8th in 2009, and 16th in 2008. He has been playing well this year however with a win at the Zurich Classic and runner-up at Memorial. He also took T27 at The U.S Open. Hideki Matsuyama has been playing exceptional golf this season making 16 of 17 cuts, with an incredible 14 Top 25s and 8 Top 10s. He does not have any wins this season, but it is only a matter of time as he is in contention most every week. We are not sure if he can win The Open this year, but at this price anywhere in the Top 10 would be alright. He currently ranks in Strokes Gained Tee-To-Green (2nd), Total Driving (4th), Greens in Regulation (9th), Scrambling (10th), Par 4 Scoring (2nd). He has two appearances at The Open –where he finished 39th in 2014 and 6th in 2013. Matsuyama finished 18th at the US Open a few weeks ago at Chambers Bay. His ownership in the millionaire maker will most likely be between 15-20% because his price is so low and he presents such a value. An under the radar guy we like is Martin Kaymer. He has had a really poor start to the season, which came unexpected as he was one of the top players all of last year with his U.S Open and The Players victories. Only one Top 25 finish in nine events on the PGA Tour and four missed cuts this season so far. In his most recent appearance at the Alstom Open de France, Kaymer looked impressive taking 4th. We mentioned the Alfred Dunhill Links Championship as a good comparison for this week since it is played on the Old course, Kaymer has had some success in there in the past with a 7th in 2013, a win in 2010, and 2nd in 2008. As far as the British Open his highlight is a 7th place finish which was in 2010 right here at St Andrews. We know that St Andrews is one of Kaymer’s favorite courses in the world and his track record here backs that up. Rafael Cabrera-Bello is our sleeper in the B-List and if you haven’t heard of Cabrera Bello, don’t feel too bad he only has two appearances on the PGA Tour in which he finished T10 in Puerto Rico and T44 at Valspar. Fear not, that is why you come to Fantasy Golf Insider, to dig up guys like this. The Spaniard is currently ranked 86th in the World and over the past two months, he has finished T41at the Scottish Open last week, 5th at Alstom Open de France, T11 at BMW International Open, 2nd at the Lyoness Open, T13 at Nordea Masters, and T4 at the Irish Open, all of which were on the European Tour. His stats on the PGA Tour are useless since he only has two events played, but on the European Tour he ranks 7th in greens in regulation, 78th in driving accuracy, 55th in driving distance, and 190th in putting. So putting clearly is not his strong suit. At the British Open the past three years he has a MC last year, 21st in 2013, and MC in 2012. At the Alfred Dunhill he has missed the cut four out of the past 5 years, but did have a 4th in 2009.
Our picks: Spieth, Johnson, Rose, Kaymer, Matsuyama, Snedeker
Sleeper Pick: Cabrera-Bello
C-List:
The Favorites:
Patrick Reed
Keegan Bradley
Brendon Grace
Shane Lowry
We are going to use the C-List as we usually do as a way to get guys that most people do not choose and set us apart from the field. This has been an extremely valuable strategy, especially over the past several weeks as we have identified guys who have performed really well. Thus we are going to bypass Patrick Reed and Keegan Bradley this week. Instead we are going to recommend Branden Grace. He is one of the guys who absolutely shined at The U.S Open a few weeks ago and might have won it if not for a stray shot out of bounds on the 16th hole. Nevertheless he finished T4 and has played well in other events recently as well (outside of a MC at Travelers). A T17 last week at The Scottish Open, T11 at the BMW PGA Championship, T42 at The Players, T9 at WGC Match Play and T7 at RBC Heritage. He has had good success on the Old Course at St Andrews finishing 25th in 2014, 59th in 2013, and 1st in 2012. He also has played alright in the British Open in the past with three straight made cuts including a 36th last year, 64th in 2013, and 77th in 2012. Statistically he ranks in Stroke Gained Tee-To-Green (102nd), Total Driving (41st), Greens in Regulation (145th), Scrambling (34th), Par 4 Scoring (104th). Another guy we like is Shane Lowry. He looked outstanding at The U.S Open at Chambers Bay finishing T9, then followed that up with a T29 at The BMW International, and a T31 last week at the Scottish Open. He also had a 6th at the BMW PGA Championship in May. His PGA Tour rankings are as follows: Stroke Gained Tee-To-Green (57th), Total Driving (13th), Greens in Regulation (130th), Scrambling (171st), Par 4 Scoring (159th). What we love the most is Lowry’s success in British Open events and at the Alfred Dunhill on The Old course. In the British Open he finished 9th in 2014, 32nd in 2013, and 37th in 2010. In the Alfred Dunhill he finished 6th in 2014, 3rd in 2013, 34th in 2012, 45th in 2011. On the sleeper end of things, we are going to stay with our bread and butter, Robert Streb. He is our guy and he has been paying dividends again often lately. A T14 last week at The John Deere, T2 at the Greenbrier, T18 at the Memorial, T19 at Crowne Plaza, and T4 at Wells Fargo mark his last two months of work. He did not finish outstanding at the U.S Open with a T42 albeit was respectable. Streb ranks as the following: Stroke Gained Tee-To-Green (32nd), Total Driving (54th), Greens In Regulation (15th), Scrambling (83rd), Par 4 Scoring (22nd). Finally a deep, deep sleeper for your enjoyment, David Howell. Before you laugh, hear us out. Howell has had success on St Andrews finishing at the Alfred Dunhill 14th last year, 1st in 2013, 34th in 2012, MC in 2011, and 8th in 2010. He finished 15th last year in the British Open. Recently he has a T10 last week at the Scottish Open, T49 at Alstom Open De France, T9 at BMW International Open, missed three straight cuts, T2 at Open de Espana, 2nd at Volvo China, and T4 at Shenzhen International. On the European Tour he ranks 110th in greens in regulation, 115th in driving accuracy, and 6th in putting.
Our picks: Grace, Lowry, Streb, and Francesco Molinari is a bit intriguing as well.
Sleeper Pick: David Howell
Best of luck to you this week in the Yahoo Contest and enjoy The Open Championship!
-Fantasy Golf Insider
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