Yahoo Fantasy Golf Contest Tournament Preview – The Barclays

Welcome Yahoo Contest players to the first leg of the FedEx Cup Playoffs with The Barclays. The Top 125 players (actually 120) in the FedEx points standings will be competing this week with their sights on cracking the top 100 in FedEx Cup points to gain a spot in the Deutsche Bank Championship next week. Typically, a half-dozen play their way into the second playoff stop from outside the top 100. As normal the cut-line is Top 70 plus ties.

The Barclays rotates courses and this year it lands at Plainfield Country Club in Plainfield, New Jersey. The course measures 7,030 yards long and is a par 70. Original design of the course was by Donald Ross in 1916 but over the past 10 years, has undergone an extensive restoration and renovation program under the direction of architect Gil Hansen, involving the removal of over 1,200 trees, the rediscovery of a number of lost bunkers covered in prior years, expansion of 16 greens and the lengthening of 12 tees to reflect the modern equipment and skills.

The Barclays was held at Plainfield CC in 2011, when Hurricane Irene shortened the tournament to 54 holes, and the tournament ended Saturday, hours before the storm would hit. That year Dustin Johnson was the 54-hole leader and thus ended up being the champion. Scoring should be abundant this week as in 2011 Johnson was -19 and thirty other players were -10 or better and that was through just three rounds.

We looked closely at the statistics for 2011 and what we found was that driving accuracy and greens in regulation were not indicative of success, which is unlike most tournaments. Driving distance was also not necessarily something that was necessary to succeed at Plainfield in 2011, but there are a couple of long holes so bombers will have an edge. Obviously Dustin Johnson used his length, ranking 2nd in driving distance in 2011 at The Barclays. We are going to look at total driving, strokes gained tee-to-green, strokes gained putting, and Par 4 scoring. We are also going to use birdie or better percentage and scoring average mostly for DFS purposes.

We are going to be weighting heavily this week current form. Most years those who have been successful at The Barclays had been trending upward in tournaments leading up the event. Last year Hunter Mahan posted a T15 at The WGC Bridgestone and then a T7 at The PGA Championship leading into The Barclays before winning it. In 2013, Adam Scott had momentum building with a T14 at the WGC Bridgestone and T5 at the PGA Championship before winning The Barclays. Be sure to check out our Who’s Hot page to see who has been trending positively over the past several events and has some momentum coming in.

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A-List:
The Favorites:
Henrik Stenson
Bubba Watson
Brooks Koepka
Adam Scott
Jim Furyk

Top Pick = Brooks Koepka. Absolutely lights out over the past three months, Brooks has not finished outside the Top 20 since the first week in June and has a T6 last week at Wyndham, T5 at the PGA Championship, and T6 at WGC Bridgestone in his last three events coming in. His length of the tee will be an asset as it will give him great birdie opportunites on the long Par4 and 5s. Plus he is outstanding tee-to-green overall and a great putter as well. Simply put, you need to have him this week. Henrik Stenson would be our second choice this week in the A-List. He usually is good for a Top 20 finish automatically, but he has not been able to close the deal this season. Like Koepka his length off the tee will be beneficial, plus he is a great irons player and solid putter. Stenson has a 38th, 43rd, and 54th finish in The Barclays the last three years and did not play in 2011 when it was at Plainfield. As we did last week we are fading Adam Scott as there is clearly something wrong with his game right now and we will wait until we signs of improvement. Our Sleeper this week is a complete swing for the fences and either hit a bomb or strikeout on three pitches. That sleeper is Ryan Palmer. As we discussed in the main preview, nobody in the world will choose him this week because of his lousy current form and the death of his father. Sometimes however tragedy sparks something in people and they produce unworldly results. Either that or he will play terrible, we are not sure which, but we are not afraid to take shots.
Our Picks: Kopeka, Stenson, Furyk
Sleeper Pick: Ryan Palmer

 

B-List:

The Favorites:
Jordan Spieth
Jason Day
Dustin Johnson
Justin Rose

We are going to assume you are out of usage for Jordan Spieth and Jason Day, but if for some reason you are not, do not hesitate use them RIGHT NOW. We are out of usage for both so we are going to go with a guy who has been playing just as consistently yet not getting near the headlines and that is Justin Rose. Since the first week in June, Rose has a 2nd at Memorial, T27 at the U.S Open, T6 at The Open, T4 Quicken Loans, T3 WGC Bridgestone, and 4th PGA Championship. Rose has had success in The Barclays in the past with a 30th last year, 2nd in 2013, 46th in 2012, 6th in 2011 (Plainfield), and 15th in 2010. Statistically he possess everything we are looking for this week including the ability to score. A close second to Rose this week or us is Matt Kuchar. How freaking funny are his Sketchers commercials by the way? I laugh everytime he says OMG. Just about everything is pointing favoratively to Kuchar having success this week. His current form has been trending upward since mid-July with a T7 at RBC Canadian, T25 at WGC Bridgestone, and T7 at the PGA Championship. Kuchar consistently plays well in this event with a 5th last year, 19th in 2013, 38th in 2012, runner-up in 2011 (at Plainfield), and won it in 2010. Being below average in driving distance will not hurt him on such a short course and he is one of the best in the game at scoring. He has the experience, temperament, and game to be able to win this week at Plainfield and if he performs as well on the course as he looks on paper, we will be very happy come Sunday night. For sleepers, we are going to offer a couple options. Kevin Kisner was on fire for a stretch in the spring but since then has not performed up to the lofty expectations he set. He was runner-up at RBC Heritage this year at Harbour Town which is the same length as Plainfield and requires the same skill set to succeed. We think Kisner gets back on track this week and puts up a Top 15. The other sleeper is Kevin Chappell. Now he is usually good for the first three rounds, then on Sunday he realizes he is Kevin Chappell and folds like a pup tent. His recent form is great with only one missed cut in two months. His stats lineup well this week and he took 32nd last time The Barclays was at Plainfield. If you are looking at taking a chance, make it a Kevin.

Our Picks: Spieth and Day (if you have usage left) Rose, Kuchar,
Honorable Mention: Paul Casey and Brandt Snedeker in case you don’t have Kuchar or Rose either.
Sleeper Picks: Kevin Kisner and Kevin Chappell

 

C-List:

The Favorites:
Kevin Na
Patrick Reed
Keegan Bradley
Justin Thomas

Now that special time each week where we get to tackle our favorite list, The C-List. There are a ton of good options as always this week, but we will try and narrow it down for you. First, our main man Robert Streb. Not a surprise that Streb finds his way into our recommendations, as he has most every week this year, but is there a reason that we should leave him out? In his last nine events played, Streb has eight Top 20s. Much of those finishes have come in elite fields including a T10 at PGA Championship, 5th at WGC Bridgestone, T18 at The Open (in his first appearance playing overseas), T2 at Greenbrier, T18 at the Memorial, and T4 at Wells Fargo. Streb’s only appearance at The Barclays resulted in a missed cut last year. One look at Streb’s statistics explains why he has had such a solid season, which includes 14 Top 25s and nine Top 10s. He is rock solid in every area. Outside of an unexplainable stretch between March-April, Streb has been one of the best players on the PGA Tour this season. Now, if you are out of chances to use Streb, we suggest you pivot to Russell Henley. Overall a tremendous year from Henley with 18 cuts made in 21 events played with 11 Top 25s and four Top 10s. The only think Henley is missing this year is a win, which is surprising with how many times he has been in the hunt late in tournaments this season. Henley is another guy coming into The Barclays on a roll with a 5th at Greenbrier, T20 at The Open, T17 at WGC Bridgestone, and T12 at the PGA Championship. Not much success at The Barclays in his two appearances with a 61st last year and missed cut in 2013. This however is by far Henley’s best season so we are going to weigh current form the heaviest for him. Another great option is Danny Lee. Our only hesitation on Lee coming into the PGA Championship was the fact that it was at Whistling Straits, a long, links style course, and Lee had missed the cut at both links style courses he played in the past month (Chambers Bay and St Andrews). Our hesitation proved somewhat correct as he made the cut, but only finished T43. Well this week is not a long, links style course and more similar to those courses that Lee has been carving up over the past two months, so we like him. A T6 at WGC Bridgestone, T4 at Quicken Loans, T3 at John Deere, and win at Greenbrier mark his last four appearances outside of links style courses, not too shabby. Finally, not sure if he would still be considered a sleeper, but I venture to say David Lingmerth doesn’t come to the front of most people’s minds when discussing options for great fantasy plays this week, yet maybe he should. His great current form began when he won the Memorial the first week in June. Since then he has a T64 at Travelers, T6 at Greenbrier, T74 at The Open, 3rd at Quicken Loans, T6 at WGC Bridgestone, and T12 at The PGA Championship. He only has one appearance at The Barclays two years ago when he missed the cut. Lingmerth does not stand out in any statistical categories, but if you segment his year, they have been a lot better the latter half of the year.

Our Picks: Streb, Henley, Lee
Sleeper Pick: Lingmerth

Best of luck to all of you in the Yahoo Contest this week
-Fantasy Golf Insider
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