Yahoo Fantasy Golf Contest Tournament Preview- RBC Canadian Open

Welcome Yahoo players to the preview of the RBC Canadian Open. Despite all the weather issues they had over in Scotland, The Open Championship turned out to be ultra-exciting in the end where no fewer than 10 guys had an opportunity to win the tournament. In the end though Zach Johnson came out victorious over Marc Leishman and Louis Oosthuizen in the three-man playoff.

This week our focus turns to Oakville, Ontario Canada and Glen Abbey Golf Course for the RBC Canadian Open. Glen Abbey was designed by Jack Nicklaus and has hosted The Canadian Open 26 times with the first being in 1977. It is a par 72 course and measures 7,273 yards long. One main feature of the Glen Abbey course are the “Valley Holes”, (holes 11 through 15). On number 11, a par 4, players tee off a cliff to a fairway that is approximately 60 feet below on the valley floor. The second shot must clear Sixteen Mile Creek to the green. Holes 12, 13 and 14 all use Sixteen Mile Creek as a hazard of one form or another. Number 15 is a short par 3 with a sharply-sloping green, after which players climb out of the valley to the 16th hole.

With The Canadian Open coming directly after The Open Championship, you can imagine not many of the top players in the world will be in attendance. The one saving grace for The Canadian Open is its sponsor, RBC brings its players who are contractually obligated to show up including Matt Kuchar, Jim Furyk, Luke Donald, Hunter Mahan, Ernie Els, Brandt Snedeker, and Graeme Mcdowell. This helps at least bring some name value to a pretty soft field. Overall five of the Top 15 players in the world are in the field as of now and 27 players who played in The Open Championship, including those RBC guys. One concern that we have is that those players will be exhausted from The Open and their effort will be lacking for this event. We wanted to see if this might be a trend over the past several years, and to our surprise it is actually not the case at all. Last year 5 out of 7 RBC guys placed in the Top 25 including Kuchar (4th) and Furyk (2nd). In 2013 4 of the 7 placed in the Top 25, including Kuchar (2nd) and Snedeker (1st). In 2013, only five of them played and none of them were in the Top 25. So our conclusion is that, we are not really concerned that much with the “hangover” and it will not dissuade us from recommending those players strictly based upon that fact that they played in The Open Championship. 13 and 14 all use Sixteen Mile Creek as a hazard of one form or another. Number 15 is a short par 3 with a sharply-sloping green, after which players climb out of the valley to the 16th hole.

Last year at The Canadian Open Tim Clark birdied five of his last eight holes and won by one stroke at Royal Montreal. Clark’s 5-under-par 65 was enough to overcome a three-shot gap to start the day. A birdie at the par-4 11th started his run, moving in front with a birdie at No.16 following a short rain delay. Another birdie followed at No.17, and Jim Furyk could only match Clark’s par at No.18 in his hopes to force a playoff. Clark won for only the second time on tour with his last being THE PLAYERS in 2010.

Every week we use tournament history as an important variable to analyze, but the Canadian Open rotates locations every year, so we need to focus on years in which it has been played at Glen Abbey. The most recent years include 2013, 2009, and 2008 so be sure to focus on those years. Check out our Tournament History Page for records for every golfer who has played in this event and we have highlighted those three years where Glen Abbey was host.

Also keep in mind that scoring usually goes low at Canadian Open events, (-17 in 2014, -16 in 2013, -17 in 2012, -4 in 2011, -14 in 2010, -18 in 2009, and -17 in 2008), so choosing hose players that can go low as opposed to plodding along and hovering around par. The statistics that we will be favoring this week include strokes gained tee-to-green, greens in regulation, and approach shot proximity to the hole. Historically at Glen Abbey these are the statistical areas in which those who succeeded did well in. In 2013 Brandt Snedeker was 9th in strokes gained putting and finished in 1st and Aaron Baddley was 1st in strokes gained putting and finished in 9th place, but most of the rest of the leaderboard was very mediocre in putting.

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A-List:
The Favorites:
Bubba Watson
Jim Furyk
Brooks Koepka
Ryan Palmer
J. B Holmes

Since there should not be one ounce of adversity this week at Glen Abbey, Bubba Watson should be able to do well. As we have seen time after time, if the course is tough or the weather anything but 70 degrees and sunny, Bubba has a hard time coping with it. Give him a familiar course, with warm weather and no wind and he becomes a legit contender. This week he looks to be a decent option even though he has not played in this event before. Bubba has played well this season with 10 cuts made in 12 events played with 8 Top 25s, and six Top 10s. He ranks 7th in driving distance, 73 in greens in regulation, 4th in strokes gained tee-to-green, and 30th in strokes gained putting. He should have gotten there earlier than most others playing in The Open since he missed the cut, so we like him to play well this week. We also like Jim Furyk this week. So far this year Furyk has made 11 cuts in 13 events, with six Top 25s and four Top 10s including a win at RBC Heritage. He took T30 last week in Scotland and T42 at Chambers Bay. His history at the Canadian Open is very strong with a 2nd last year, 9th in 2013 (at Glen Abbey), and 14th in 14th in 2008 (at Glen Abbey). Per usual, his tee to green game is top notch ranking 9th in driving accuracy, 15th in greens in regulation, and 7th in strokes gained tee-to-green, and 1st in proximity to the hole. His putting has been lacking overall this season, but for stints he putts outstanding and then is when he tends to get into the Top 10. He should be able to put at Glen Abbey as the greens are beatable. The only hesitation we have is the late trip over from St Andrews and whether he will respond. It has not been an issue in the past (although this year a day later) so we are not going to consider a problem. Brooks Koepka is an absolute monster, Koepka took T10 last week at The Open and looks to be one of the biggest talents in this field. The only concern is that he is tired from the trip over from Scotland, but he since he is showing up, we have to think he is out to win it. He now has nine Top 25s, five Top 10s, a third place finish and a win in his 15 events played? Statistically he is outstanding ranking Stroke Gained Tee-To-Green (42nd), Total Driving (32nd), Greens in Regulation (30th), Scrambling (163rd), Par 4 Scoring (30th). Unless he shows up disinterested, he should be worth a Top 10. Not a sleeper per se, but more of a sneaky pick might be Luke Donald who is playing excellent golf right now. His last four tournaments have produced a T12 at The Open, T7 at Travelers, T58 at the US Open, and T29 at St Jude. He has missed the cut the last two years in the Canadian, but he had a 17th in 2011 and 3rd in 2010. He is playing better than he has played in a long time and now might be the time to take advantage of that.

Our Picks: Watson, Furyk, Koepka, J.B Holmes
Sleeper Pick: Donald

B-List:

The Favorites:
Jason Day
Matt Kuchar
Hunter Mahan
Graham Delaet
Graeme Mcdowell

Outside of Jason Day and Matt Kuchar, the B-List is a bit stinky this week. Jason Day has not withdrawn from this event as of the writing of this preview, which frankly shocks us, but do you really think he is that motivated after being so deflated after missing a chance on the 18th hole to make it into the playoff at The Open? When he is healthy he is easily one of the most talented players in this field and if we knew he was going to come into it motivated, we would pick him without hesitation. He has six Top 10s in the 13 events that he has played this season including the T4 at The Open and T9 at The U.S Open. He ranks 3rd in driving distance, 23rd in greens in regulation, 31st in strokes gained tee-to-green, 41st in strokes gained putting, and 23rd in total strokes gained. Matt Kuchar has had quite a bit of success in the Canadian Open in the past which is the main reason we like Kuchar this week. A 4th place finish last year and in 2010, plus a runner-up finish in 2013 when it was at Glen Abbey. Kuchar has not had the type of great season that he had last year, as he only has three Top 10s in 17 events played as opposed to last year when he had 12 at this same point in the season. He finished a disappointing T58 last week at the Open Championship mainly due to a few blowup holes including a triple bogey in the second round, which almost cost him the cut. Kuchar ranks 134th in driving distance, 107th in driving accuracy, 107th in greens in regulation, 59th in strokes gained tee-to-green, and 7th in strokes gained putting. Despite the lack in current form, Kuchar still remains amongst the best players in this weakened field this week so he cannot be ignored. Plus he tends to shine in RBC events (see RBC Heritage as well). If you want to bank on those two guys being tired from their trip across the ocean, may we suggest Kevin Chappell. Riding a consecutive made cut streak of seven, Chappell had a bit of a breakthrough with a T8 at John Deere. During that made cut streak he had four Top 25s, so he is playing really good golf. Chappell ranks 62nd in driving distance, 68th in driving accuracy, 102nd in greens in regulation, 118th in strokes gained tee-to-green, 37th in proximity to the hole, and 62nd in strokes gained putting. Chappell took 20th in this event last year and 68th when it was played at Glen Abbey in 2013. In a weak field and with some momentum coming in, we like Chappell to put up a nice finish. Another decent option we think is Chris Stroud. As the summer goes along, Stroud has begun to heat up a little bit. In his last four events, he has a T32 last week at Barbasol, T5 at John Deere, T37 at The Greenbrier, and T10 at Travelers. Statistically he doesn’t do anything really well ranking 67th in driving distance, 134th in greens in regulation, 101st in strokes gained tee-to-green, an 102nd in strokes gained putting. Stroud has a mediocre tournament history making the cut three times, but the two missed cuts being at Glen Abbey. We think his current form is going to be enough to propel him to a Top 20 finish this week. Graham Delaet obviously is the home country boy, but he is so erratic and frankly we just do not normally like him that much and think taking one of the sleeper options we mentioned would give you more bang for you buck.
Our Picks: Day, Kuchar, Chappell, Delaet (only if the others withdraw or you are down on usage)
Sleeper Pick: Stroud

C-List:

The Favorites:

Tony Finau
Pat Perez

Everybody Else

This is always our favorite list, but this week how in the world do you pick from it? There are so many guys about the same level that it is going to be razor thin who we like over the others. First lets start with Tony Finau who is leaps and bounds more talented than most everybody on this list. A week off after barely missing the cut at The John Deere will hopefully get Finau back on the torrid pace he had been on prior to that. That hot stretch includes a T13 at Greenbrier, T25 at Travelers, T14 at the US Open, T8 at the Memorial, and T10 at Byron Nelson. His talent puts him at the top of the field for this event and statistically he ranks 6th in driving distance, 184th in driving accuracy, 63rd in greens in regulation, 34th in strokes gained tee-to-green, and 135th in strokes gained putting. This will be Finau’s first appearance at the Canadian Open and we expect a Top 20 out of him. Pat Perez has been dynamite this season with 17 cuts made in 20 events and eight Top 25s and two Top 10s. His lack of success in the Canadian Open is a bit concerning with four missed cuts in his last six appearances. Still his current form trumps that and we look for him to compete and finish in the Top 20 this week. Chad Campbell is rarely a name mentioned within our recommendations, but he has now made five consecutive cuts including a T48 last week at Barbasol, T28 at John Deere, T37 at Greenbrier, T25 at Travelers, and T8 at FedEx St Jude. He missed the cut at the Canadian Open last year and in 2012, but took 16th in 2013 here at Glen Abbey and 22nd in 2011. Statistically, Campbell excels in accuracy where he ranks 52nd in driving accuracy and 42nd in greens in regulation. He also is 150th in driving distance, 68th in strokes gained tee-to-green, and 112th in strokes gained putting. We like the way he is playing and the fact that he has had some success in this tournament and on this course. Austin Cook was a late entry into this field and he has looked great this year with a T6 last week at Barbasol, T22 at FedEx St Jude, and T11 at Shell Houston Open. He is a guy not too many people will be choosing, since not many know about him and it might separate you from the field a bit. Our sleeper pick is Andres Romero. He has three Top 15 finishes in his past four appearances with a T10 at Barbasol last week, T6 at Greenbrier, mc at Travelers, and T14 at the U.S Open. He has also had a bit of success in the Canadian Open with a 20th last year, 21st in 2013(at Glen Abbey), and 3rd in 2011. Romero ranks 44th in driving distance, but is brutal in greens in regulation ranking 195th on Tour, although it has been better over the past month.

Our Picks: Finau, Cook, Perez, Campbell
Sleeper Pick: Andres Romero

 

As always best of luck this week, and please continue to let us know how you do.
-Fantasy Golf Insider

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