Yahoo Fantasy Golf Contest Tournament Preview- PGA Championship

It’s the last major of the year, Yahoo Fantasy Golf fans and we are ready to give you some advice on who to select in this week’s contest.  The final major of the year is of course the PGA Championship held at Whistling Straits in Kohler Wisconsin. The Straits course hugs the coastline of Lake Michigan and replicates the seaside links courses in Ireland and the United Kingdom. The Pete Dye designed course opened in 1998 and has hosted the PGA Championship in 2004 and 2010. The Straits is home to bluffs, massive sand dunes, over 500 bunkers and 14 water hazards. The greens are composed of bentgrass, fairways are a blend of three fescues, the primary rough is the same fescue blend as fairways, but maintained at a higher cut, and the deep rough is a blend of four fescues. The Straights is a Par 72, has four Par 5s and four Par 3s, and measures will measure up to 7,790 yards long this week.

We mentioned the PGA Championship was played at Whistling Straits in 2004 and 2010, and we have included the results from 2010 on our tournament history page. We will also place a lot of importance on results from Chamber Bay (The U.S Open) because it is one of the most similar style courses to Whistling Straits that there is. In addition we will also look at results from other links style courses, such as St Andrews to see who excels on this type of terrain.

The statistics we are going to analyze this week are strokes gained tee-to-green, strokes gained putting, total driving (driving distance + driving accuracy), greens in regulation, and scrambling. The distance of Whistling Straits is extremely long and is one of the longest courses the players see all year. For this reason we want guys who can hit the ball long off the tee. However as we saw at Chambers Bay, bombing it off the tee without regard to accuracy will not work. Total driving is a great statistic because it will combine distance and accuracy and reflect who will be able to conquer the length but also avoid the unforgiving rough. Greens in regulation will also be important as difficult bunkers and rough will be tough to chip out of and scrambling will be hard. Those who can zero in on the greens with their approach shot will benefit greatly. Finally, as with all majors, putting will be crucial, greens will be fast, and as always those with the most effective flat stick will come out victorious.

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A-List:

The Favorites:

Rory McIlroy
Henrik Stenson
Adam Scott
Bubba Watson
Sergio Garcia
Jim Furyk

Last week we recommended Scott, Furyk, Watson, and Koepka from the A-List. Three of them finished in the Top 6 and Adam Scott sucked. So we hope you went with Furyk, Watson, or Koepka. This week the big question mark is around Rory McIlroy and his ankle. He says he is good and in watching extended coverage of his practice round (yes we have no life), everything looks to be good, which makes him our top pick. The ankle injury could actually help us as the uncertainty might dissuade people from taking him. He disappointed a little at The U.S Open finishing T9, but did make a late charge at the end. Rory also finished T4 at the Masters. Last year you will remember he finished the season strong with wins at The Open and PGA Championship. He also took T3 at Whistling Straits at the PGA Championship in 2010. What to do with Bubba Watson, he has been on a roll lately, but our problem with him is that he does not deal with adversity well. Anything besides 70 degrees and sunny with no wind on an easy course seems to get Bubba’s undies in a bunch. Whistling Straits will be hard and we could see a little wind. He has missed the cut at both the US and British Opens on this same style links course. To summarize, we like him but we do not love him. One of those guys we like a little is Henrik Stenson. It seems like he has recovered from the bizarre illness that plagued him for several months and is now back on track. A T6 last week was very encouraging although he had less than impressive finishes at The Open, T40 and The U.S Open T27. We recommended Jim Furyk as a good play last week and he delivered for us with a T3. He continues to defy father time and produce great results. His game is so solid that he overcomes his lack of length off the tee. Before last week’s 3rd, he had a 4th at RBC Canadian Open, T30 at The Open, T42 at the U.S Open, and T5 The Memorial. Furyk ranks 81st in Total Driving, 24th in Greens in Regulation, 7th in Strokes Gained Tee-To-Green), 115th in Strokes Gained Putting, 22nd in Par 4 Scoring, and 19th in Scrambling. In 2010 Furyk finished T24 at The PGA Championship at Whistling Straights. We think he can overcome the lack of length here like he did last week. Finally our favorite play week after week is Brooks Koepka and he continues to play well. A T6 last week at WGC Bridgestone, T18 at RBC Canadian, T10 at the Open, T22 at the Scottish Open, and T18 at the US Open mark his last five tournament results. Koepka’s statistics are outstanding ranking 8th in driving distance, 140th in driving accuracy, 14th in greens in regulation, 34th in strokes gained tee-to-green, 8th in strokes gained putting, and 37th in total driving. We anticipate another great finish for Koepka this week. We think you should stick to these guys but if you insist on a sleeper, we think Webb Simpson is a fine play. He finished T25 last week at The WGC Bridgestone, T40 at The Open, and T46 at the U.S Open. He is the epitome of a good ball striker and terrible putter as he ranks 8th in strokes gained tee-to-green and 165th in strokes gained putting. If he can putt just average this week, he will be able to crack the Top 20.

Our picks: McIlroy, Watson, Stenson, Furyk, Koepka
Sleeper Pick: Webb Simpson

 

B-List:

The Favorites:
Jordan Spieth
Jason Day
Dustin Johnson
Justin Rose
Rickie Fowler

Last week we had Spieth, Day, Fowler, and Rose all of who finished in the Top 12, not too shabby. This week we assume you are all out of your Jordan Spieth usage, but if you happen to have been storing a couple in your back pocket snatch him up as we like him a lot to win. He ranks 82nd in driving distance, 69th in driving accuracy, 40th in total driving, 33rd in greens in regulation, 3rd in strokes gained tee-to-green, and 6th in strokes gained putting. We obviously know he won The Masters and the U.S Open at Chambers Bay, and narrowly missed the playoff at The Open Championship, so there is no reason to believe he will not contend. He finished T10 last week at The WGC. If you do not have Spieth usage left our next choice is a tie between Justin Rose and Jason Day. Rose is a guy who has been absolutely on fire lately with a T3 last week at the WGC Bridgestone, T4 at Quicken Loans, T6 at The Open, 74th at the Scottish Open, T27 at the U.S Open, and 2nd at The Memorial. Rose ranks 7th in total driving, 18th in greens in regulation, 17th in strokes gained tee-to-green, 87th in strokes gained putting, and 83rd in Par 4 scoring. Rose missed the cut here in 2010 for the PGA Championship. Day has had a great season with a win at the RBC Canadian, T4 at The Open, T9 at the U.S Open, and a win at the Farmers. If it were not for a bout of vertigo at Chambers Bay he might have been able to win that elusive major, but on a similar track he can do it this week. He ranks 67th in total driving, 28th in greens in regulation, 27th in strokes gained tee-to-green, 20th in strokes gained putting, 2nd in Par 4 scoring, and 10th in scrambling. Last week Day didn’t seem to have his A-game, but he was still able to muster a T12. Alright gun to our head, we take Day. Our sleeper pick is Danny Willett and we like him a lot! Having won the Omega European Masters and taking T6 at The Open Championship on his last two links style courses he played, we are expecting Whistling Straits to set up nicely for him. Willett came out on Friday and said he had been taking an antibiotic for some sickness, so maybe that was the reason he had shot a 70 and 71 in the first two rounds and then bounced back with a pair of 69s on the weekend. At any rate, that will be good for us, as most people will not know about that and thus his popularity will be even lower than it would have been in the first place. Willett’s European Tour rankings include 23rd in greens in regulation, 75th in driving distance, 146th in driving accuracy, 4th in scrambling, and 39th in putting. He did miss the cut at Chambers Bay, but has clearly started playing better recently.
Our Picks: Spieth, Day, Rose (Basically stick with these guys this week, it will pay off)
Sleeper Pick: Willett

 

C-List:

The Favorites:

Keegan Bradley
Patrick Reed
Louis Oosthuizen
Kevin Na

Now onto our favorite list and it has so many options, it will be difficult to narrow it down. We are going to steer clear of the favorites as we normally do with the C-List, because we like to find lower used guys to create separation, and we have done that nicely so far this season. This week we recommend going with our guy Robert Streb. Last week he paid off huge for us with a 5th and before that a T18 The Open, T14 John Deere, and T2 at Greenbrier. Streb ranks the following: Total Driving (41st), Greens in Regulation (10th), Strokes Gained Tee-To-Green (32nd), Strokes Gained Putting (28th) Par 4 Scoring (13th), Scrambling (72nd). He also finished a respectable T42 at Chambers Bay for the U.S Open. Branden Grace is another great option as he plays so well on links style courses like Whistling Straights. He had a T20 at The Open at St Andrews, T17 at Scottish Open, and T4 at The U.S Open. Grace has shown this season that he is capable of winning tournaments as he has wins at the Qatar Masters and Alfred Dunhill Championship on the European Tour. His stats do not register on the PGA Tour, but on the European Tour he ranks 8th in greens in regulation, 24th in driving distance, 197th in driving accuracy, 18th in scrambling, and 36th in putting. Last week he finished a solid T17 at the WGC Bridgestone, but that was not on a links style course and this week is. He will most likely be overlooked this week with such a deep field and so many options, so we like him even more. You might ask, is Shane Lowry a good play this week? Well if you have read our aricle The Dangers of Recency Bias, looked on our homepage you will know that there is mostly a negative correlation between winning a tournament and playing well the following week. That combined with the fact that a lot of people will probably choose him leads us to fading him this week. Another guy we do like is Jason Bohn. This is not Bohn’s first rodeo so we do not have to worry about him being wide-eyed under the bright lights of major championship. As a matter of fact, Bohn has played in four PGA Championships and has missed two cuts, but also has a T34 in 2005 and T40 last year. Bohn has found something in his game this year and is playing better than ever before. In his last three events played he has a T4 at Quicken Loans, T12 at John Deere, and T13 at Greenbrier. Bohn is one of the best in the game in Par 4 scoring ranking 4th on the PGA Tour. In addition he ranks 82nd in Total Driving, 25th in Greens in Regulation, 41st in Strokes Gained Tee-To-Green, 37th in Strokes Gained Putting, and 30th in Scrambling. We like the combination of current form with experience and think he will make the most of this opportunity. Although they all seem to be kind of sleepers we will offer a guy that virtually nobody will own and that is Emiliano Grillo. Take a look at his season in our Whos Hot Rankings and you will see he is playing really well this season including a T22 at the Canadian Open, T10 at Barbasol, T41 Scottish Open, T21 at Nordea Masters, T30 at the Irish Open, and 6th at Espana. A really solid season for this Argentian, and you will be the only one with him if you decide to pull the trigger.

Our picks: Streb, Grace, Bohn
Sleeper Pick: Grillo

 

Best of luck to all of you in the Yahoo Contest, and be sure to let us know how you are doing.
-Fantasy Golf Insider

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