Yahoo Fantasy Golf Contest Tournament Preview- Greenbrier Classic

Welcome readers to another edition of our tournament preview for you playing in the Yahoo contest. This week the PGA Tour takes us to White Sulphur Springs, West Virginia and The Old White TPC Course for The Greenbrier Classic. It made its debut in 2010 when it replaced the long-standing Buick Open on the PGA tour schedule. The Old White course is a Par 70, measuring 7,287 yards long and features two Par 5s and four Par 3s. The average winning score over the past five years is 13 under par with the highest being -10 and the lowest being -22. The winners over the past five years have been Angel Cabrera, Jonas Blixt, Ted Potter, Jr., Scott Stallings, and Stuart Appleby. Not exactly elite talent is winning the Greenbrier Classic, so keep that in mind.

Much like last week there is not much depth of high quality players in the field as only six of the Top 30 in the world will be making their way to West Virginia this week. Bubba Watson, will play his second straight week and try and keep rolling after winning last week at The Travelers. Tiger Woods will also be playing this week and try and prove that he is still capable of competing on the PGA Tour after some embarrassing performances thus far this year. Tiger has played in this tournament once before in 2012 when he missed the cut.

The meaningful statistics this week just so happen to be very similar to those that were important last week. Next to strokes gained tee-to-green, the statistic that proves the most important in determining success this week is greens in regulation. Upon analyzing the past five years results, year after year the top finishers consistently are near the top in greens in regulation. As a matter of fact, last year Angel Cabrera and George McNeill finished first and second in greens in regulation as well as the standings. Another stat that we will be looking closely at this week is Par 4 scoring. Last year, of the 12 players who ranked the best in Par 4 scoring, nine of them finished in the Top 10. Prior year’s show the same importance of Par 4 scoring. One of the more surprising findings from last year was how little of a factor putting was in success. Last year of the Top 15 in the standings, eight of them were outside the best 25 putters. Cabrera and McNeill were tied for the 29th best putters on the week. In 2013, nine of the Top 15 were not in the best 25 putters, although the winner Jonas Blixt did finish as the best putter and in 2012 putting was a large factor as of the Top 6 players in the standings, five of them were amongst the seven best putters in the field. This week we will recognize strokes gained putting, but it will not hold as much weight as the other stats.

Last year Angel Cabrera won his first tournament that was not a major, by shooting a 64-64 over the weekend to hold off George McNeill’s closing 61 for a two-shot victory. Cabrera, had birdies on #11 and #12 and a hole-out for eagle at #13 to build a three-shot lead before a pair of late bogeys shrunk the lead a bit, but . But Cabrera reached the green in two on the way to a birdie at the 616-yard, par-5 17th and parred his final hole. McNeill finished runner-up and Webb Simpson in 3rd.

One of the factors that needs to be analyzed this week and every week is tournament history. When you look at our tournament history page you will see a lot of guys who have had success on this course in this tournament. For a complete tournament history for every player click here to go to our tournament history page.

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Brian Harmon and Mike Weir have both withdrawn from The Greenbrier and Will Wilcox and Partrick Rodgers are now in the field.

A-List:

The Favorites:

Bubba Watson
Webb Simpson
J.B Holmes
Bill Haas
Tiger Woods

Before we get started with who we like, we will just say flat out who we don’t like, Tiger Woods. Until he shows that he can legitimately compete on the PGA Tour again we are not going to consider him, despite how under-owned he may be. Now onto who we like, Bubba Watson- Last week he was one of our picks and we hit that right on the screws. We said that even though he would be a popular pick, we still needed him on the roster. This week he heads to the place where he has one of his vacation homes, Greenbrier. We think that is probably overdone the fact that he maintains a vacation home here. He looked really good last week at The Travelers and there is not much reason to think that he will not continue his solid play this week. Before his win, he missed the cut at The U.S Open, placed T42 at The Players, T38 at The Masters, and T29 at the Shenzhen Open on the European Tour. He has not had the same success in the past here at the Greenbrier as he has had at The Travelers. In his two appearances, he has a 16th last year and 30th in 2013. He ranks 4th in driving distance, 124th in driving accuracy, 100th in greens in regulation, and 8th in strokes gained tee-to-green. If you want to steer clear of Bubba this week take a look at Webb Simpson. On a course that benefits ball strikers and does not penalize as much poor putters, this place might as well be Mecca for Webb Simpson. 35th in greens in regulation, 34th in driving accuracy, 84th in driving distance, 7th in strokes gained tee-to-green, and 174th in strokes gained putting. Simpson has made 12 cuts in 14 events this season with 6 Top 25s and 4 Top 10s. He has a T46 at the U.S Open, MC at FedEx St Jude, runner up at Wells Fargo, and T66 at The Players in his last four tournaments. As if his stats were not enough to demonstrate how good of a course The Old White TPC Course is for Simpson, his tournament history does- 3rd last year, 41st in 2013, 7th in 2012, and 9th in 2011. Simpson looks like a great bet to finish near the top this week. Always steady, Bill Haas looks like a no-brainer pick this week. A solid tournament history with a 23rd last year, 9th in 2013, 33rd in 2012, and runner-up in 2011. He did miss the cut at Chambers Bay, but before then he had a T18 at The Memorial, T68 at Wells Fargo, and T4 at The Players. Haas ranks 105th in driving distance, 68th in driving accuracy, 42nd in greens in regulation, 32nd in strokes gained tee-to-green, 133rd in strokes gained putting, and 26th in Par 4 scoring. Finally, J.B Holmes who has been basically a boom or bust play all season long. His last ten tournaments resulted in T27 at the U.S Open, MC at Wells Fargo, T51 at The Players, T9 at WGC Match Play, MC at the Masters, won the Shell Houston Open, MC at Arnold Palmer, runner up at WGC Cadillac, T22 at Northern Trust, and T10 at Pebble Beach. He has had some decent, but not sensational results at The Greenbrier in the past with a 23rd last year, 27th in 2012, MC in 2011, and 16th in 2010. We all know that Holmes is a long-ball hitter, ranking 7th in driving distance, 102nd in greens in regulation, 11th in strokes gained tee-to-green, and 40th in Par 4 scoring. Holmes is not very accurate off the tee ranking 165th and not great putting either ranking 152nd. If you are feeling like taking a bit of a risk this week, Holmes would be your guy. This is not a week where we like any of the options other than the guys listed so we are not even going to mess around with a sleeper.

Our picks: Watson, Simpson, Haas, Holmes
Sleeper picks: None, stick to the top guys in this list

 

B-List:

The Favorites:

Paul Casey
Kevin Kisner
George McNeill
Graham Delaet

There are not too many guys in the world that have played as well as Kevin Kisner has over the past 3 months, thus we are making him our top pick. Since he missed the cut at the Shell Houston Open, he has strung together a runner up at RBC Heritage, T28 at Zurich, runner-up at The Players, T38 at Wells Fargo, T5 at Crowne Plaza, T8 at The Memorial, and T12 at U.S Open. The one concern is that he has three appearances here at the Greenbrier and has missed the cut all three times. We have to keep in mind that Kisner has never been on such an influencial run or played as good of golf as he has this season. Generally, we use current form as an overriding factor and we will in this case as well. There is nothing that this course features that Kisner’s game does not possess. He ranks 125th in driving distance, 18th in driving accuracy, 67th in greens in regulation, 50th in strokes gained tee-to-green, 52nd in strokes gained putting, and 26th in Par 4 scoring. It is tough to pass up on a guy who took runner-up the week before, so we are going to mention Paul Casey. After a bout with food poisoning, Casey seems to be back to where he was for a stretch earlier in the season where he had a T2 at Northern Trust, T3 at Honda, 9th in Houston, and T6 at the Masters. If you have followed Casey in the past you will know that he runs very streaky. We would recommend you take him before he falls off again into the abyss like he tends to do time to time. Chambers Bay proved to be too much for George McNeill to handle as he missed the cut for the first time in over three months. That is o.k. because The Old White TPC is not at all like Chambers Bay and much like a lot of the courses, McNeill has played so well on thus far this season. Since mid-March, he has recorded five Top 20s in ten events played, including a T12 at Zurich, T17 at The Players, T5 at Crowne Plaza, and T13 at The Memorial. McNeill ranks 121st in driving distance, 62nd in driving distance, 135th in greens in regulation, 65th in strokes gained tee-to-green, 38th in strokes gained putting, and 40th in Par 4 scoring. The last two years here at the Greenbrier, McNeill had a 17th in 2013 and runner-up last year. During the tournament last year, McNeill was dealing with the fact that his sister was in the final stage of her fight against cancer and actually passed away shortly after. McNeill currently ranks 9th in our Who’s Hot rankings showing just how great he has performed this season. And now for sleeper time and we have a couple for you. First is Daniel Berger. The last we saw of Berger, we were being disappointed by him blowing up at The Memorial. There is a decent chance he does the same this week at the Greenbrier, but there is also a decent chance he ends up in the Top 10. That is just Daniel Berger’s style, he is boom or bust. In his last six events played he has three missed cuts, a T10 at Byron Nelson, T28 at Wells Fargo, and T6 at Zurich. Berger also has a runner up at the Honda Classic, and T10s at Phoenix Open and Pebble Beach. He is an explosive player and he has the ability to score, which is important in this tournament. Berger has never appeared at the Greenbrier. He ranks 17th in Par 4 scoring, 15th in driving distance, 21st in greens in regulation, and 28th in strokes gained tee-to-green. The other guy we really like this week is Kevin Chappell. This seems like a pretty good spot for Chappell to break out. Over the past month and a half he has been in the mix, but not able to break through. A T46 at the U.S Open, T22 at FedEx St Jude, T49 at The Memorial, T19 at Crowne Plaza, T16 at Wells Fargo in his last five events following three missed cuts. His history in this tournament is much the same hovering but hasn’t broken through year with a 16th last year, 41st in 2013, and 17th in 2012, MC in 2011. He ranks 54th in driving distance, 80th in driving accuracy, 122nd in greens in regulation, 119th in strokes gained tee-to-green, 103rd in strokes gained putting, and 86th in par 4 scoring. He has missed eight cuts this season so he is a bit volatile, but if you look at our Who’s Hot rankings, you will see he is a streaky player and often strings together sold finishes. Everything seems to be lining up for Chappell to breakout one of these weeks and it could be this one. And finally, yes he made it into the field as an alternate, Patrick Rodgers. We really like him here at FGI. He was in the hunt at the beginning of Sunday’s round, but a final round 73 made him plummet in the standings. Rodgers finished runner-up at Wells Fargo. Since then he has finished T74 at Crowne Plaza, MC at Byron Nelson, T40 at The Memorial, and T29 at FedEx St Jude. He played the Greenbrier last year for the first time and finished 45th. He ranks 4th in driving distance, 185th in driving accuracy, 136th in greens in regulation, 71st in strokes gained tee-to-green, 91st in strokes gained putting, and 60th in total strokes gained.

Our picks: Casey, Kisner, McNeill
Sleeper Picks: Berger, Rodgers, and Chappell

 

C-List:

Favorites:

Keegan Bradley
Patrick Reed
Kevin Na
Louis Oosthuizen

The C-List, where we really like to go off the beaten path and find guys that are not as popular as the mainstream guys. This strategy has proved very beneficial up to this point in the season so we are going to stick to it. The list is so deep with quality guys that have the ability to make deep runs, that we like to identify them and allow you to make headway on the field. Keegan Bradley has been playing alright, but definitely not up to his potential. He faded over the weekend at The Travelers and finished T39. This on the heels of a T27 at the US Open, T8 at The Memorial, and T22 at Byron Nelson. If you like safety he is your guy this week on this list. Patrick Reed is just playing too poorly for us to get too excited about. Yes he could surprise and jump up, but he does not have a Top 10 since Valspar in early March. He took 26th here last year and missed the cut in 2013. We would be willing to use him here this week, but we would also be willing to hold off on him until he gets hot again. A guy we think might be sneaky this week is Brendon Todd. Outside of the majors, he has played pretty consistently making 14 cuts in 18 events played with seven Top 25s and three Top 10s. He has a 17th at The Memorial, MC at Byron Nelson, T43 at Crowne Plaza, T51 at The Players, and 4th at RBC Heritage. Last week he played very well shooting 67-70-67-67 to finish T15 at The Travelers. He has played in this tournament twice before and finished 46th in 2012 and 4th last year. Todd ranks 189th in driving distance, 10th in driving accuracy, 89th in greens in regulation, 43rd in strokes gained tee-to-green, 13th in strokes gained putting, and 67th in Par 4 scoring. The Old White TPC Course is a great fit for Todd’s game and he looks to be a great play in all formats this week with some momentum coming in from last week. Russell Henley is another guy we think could play well this week. He has a 30th in his only appearance here two years ago. He missed the cut at the U.S Open and Memorial, but had a T22 at Byron Nelson, T24 at the Players, MC at RBC Heritage, 21st at The Masters, and 4th at the Houston Open. We think he could surprise some people this week. Shawn Stefani is another possibility. A really solid season for a guy we have recommended quite a few times, Stefani has made 15 cuts in 19 events played with nine Top 25s and three Top 10s. He has now had a couple weeks of rest as his last appearance was FedEx St Jude, where he missed the cut. Before that he had a T40 at The Memorial, T19 at Crowne Plaza, and T9 at Wells Fargo. He has two appearances here at Greenbrier and had a 59th in 2013 and 35th last year. His strengths line up well with what it takes to succeed here ranking 35th in driving distance, 110th in driving accuracy, 31st in greens in regulation, 60th in strokes gained tee-to-green, 38th in strokes gained putting, and 22nd in Par 4 scoring. Finally, our old go-to-guy, Robert Streb. A T42 at the U.S Open was not an outstanding result, but it also was not horrible on that course with that strength of field. Streb has been on a bit of a roll again with a T18 at Memorial, T19 at Crowne Plaza, T4 at Wells Fargo, and T30 at The Players, after an early season slump. He has the game to finish high as he has shown with six Top 10s this season including a win at MacGladrey in the fall. He currently ranks 45th in driving distance, 126th in driving accuracy, 18th in greens in regulation, 36th in strokes gained tee-to-green, and 34th in strokes gained putting, and 17th in Par 4 scoring. His tournament history is not sterling, but then again he has never played as well in his career as he has this year. He took 71st last year and 41st in 2013. He fits the bill as a good high floor, high ceiling guy this week at The Greenbrier. Have you noticed we haven’t mentioned the guy who we seem to like every week, yes Kevin Na. Well last weeks performance was a bit concerning and we want to see if he can bounce back or if he is wearing down and becoming fatigued. Let’s hold off on him this week and see.

Our picks: Bradley (for a safe pick, but we like others to set yourself apart), Todd, Stefani, Henley
Sleeper Pick: Robert Streb

Best of luck to all of you in the Yahoo Contest and let us know how you are doing.

-Fantasy Golf Insider