Yahoo Fantasy Golf Contest Tournament Preview – Deutsche Bank Championship

Welcome Yahoo Fantasy Golf Contest Players to the second leg of the FedEx Cup Playoffs, The Deutsche Bank Championship which is held at TPC Boston, which is in Norton, Massachusetts, approximately 25 miles south of Boston. Because it is Labor Day weekend the tournament will not start until Friday and will wrap up on Monday.

We are now down to the top 100 players in the FedEx Cup standings and will reduce down to 70 following this week in preparation for the BMW Championship. Per usual the top 70 players in the field, plus ties will make the cut. After a brief hiatus Rory McIlroy is back to #1 in the world and will return to action this week.

TPC Boston is a Par-71, measures 7,242 yards long, and was originally designed by Arnold Palmer, but was re-designed in 2007 by Gil Hanse, with PGA TOUR player Brad Faxon serving as a consultant. The course features three Par 5s and four Par 3s.

The key statistics that need to be analyzed this week include Par 3, 4 and 5 scoring, Strokes Gained Tee-to-Green, Strokes Gained Putting, Proximity to the hole, and birdie or better %. For DFS last week it was technically a bit easier to get guys through the cut because there were only 119 players in the field as opposed to the normal 156. This week it becomes even easier with 100 players in the field, and getting six guys through should not be your focus as much as getting high place finishers. This will allow us to take a few more chances on guys who usually run the risk of missing the cut. Selecting six cut makers just to get through and accumulate points will not be enough this week to do any damage in GPPs so keep that in mind.

We are back to a tournament that has been held at the same course over the years, so tournament history becomes much more important than last week. There are several players who stand out as having tremendous success over the years at TPC Boston. Be sure to check out the Tournament History Page to see the results for every field over the last seven years.

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A-List:

The Favorites:

Rory McIlroy
Henrik Stenson
Bubba Watson
Brooks Koepka
Jim Furyk

The guy who we think is the best play in the A-List this week is Rory McIlroy. There are still questions surrounding his health and effectiveness as he was only able to muster a 17th at the PGA Championship. An interesting thing to take note of is that he started out shooting a pair of 71s on Thursday and Friday, but then proceeded to fire a 68 on Saturday and 69 on Sunday. This indicates to us that it took him a bit to knock the rust off, but when he did, he was back to his old form. The week off last week should put him at an advantage over others who played four tough rounds at The Barclays and we look at that as a positive for Rory. He has proven that he can conquer TPC Boston as he had a 5th last year and won in 2012. McIlroy is going to be charged up to try and take the spotlight off of Day and Spieth, who have been the talk of golf all season, not Rory, which has to be bugging him. All of these reasons make us like him the best out of the group. It is also hard to ignore what Bubba Watson is doing (excluding links style courses) as he has recorded a 3rd last week at The Barclays, 2nd at WGC Bridgestone, 2nd at RBC Canadian, and win at Travelers. He has far from dominated TPC Boston in the past however with his best finish being a 16th. This year however, Bubba’s short game and putting are vastly improved. We think he utilizes his length on the Par 5s here and keeps his hot streak going. Finally we think Brooks Koepka rebounds from his missed cut last week at The Barclays and finishes well this week. He missed the cut for the first time in months, big deal, we knew he would eventually. While some will desert him, we will not. Before his missed cut last week at The Barclays, Koepka was on an unbelievable run with seven straight Top 20s including a T6 at Wyndham, T5 at the PGA Championship, and T6 at WGC Bridgestone in his last three. This will be his first appearance at The Deutsche Bank, which is a bit of a negative. Finally, the tournament that Koepka won this season was the Waste Management Phoenix Open at TPC Scottsdale, which measures 7,266 (within 20 yards of TPC Boston) Koepka has been playing too well and we are going to take stay on board. The A-List sleeper of the week is Jason Dufner. If you look at Dufner’s results over the past month, he is basically one bad round per tournament away from some great finishes. Last week he shot a 66, 68, and 69 in the first three rounds only to put up a 75 on Sunday and drop him to T30. We think he can string together four rounds this week and crack the top 10. Skinny Duf has had a lot of success here at TPC Boston in the past with a 9th in 2013, 18th in 2012, 31st in 2011, 18th in 2010, and 2nd in 2009. (He did not play here last year. Not too many people will be on Dufner this week with all the other big names in this group, which presents us an excellent opportunity to gain ground.

Our Picks- McIlroy, Watson, Koepka
Sleeper Pick- Dufner

 

B-List:

Jason Day
Jordan Spieth
Justin Rose
Dustin Johnson
Rickie Fowler

There is not player in the field this week with a better combination of current form, tournament history, and statistics than Jason Day, thus he is our top pick. Coming in red hot with a dominant win last week at The Barclays, win at The PGA Championship, T12 at WGC Bridgestone, and win at RBC Canadian. He has owned this course in the past with a 7th last year, 13th in 2013, 51st in 2012, 3rd in 2011, and 2nd in 2010. Our second choice is Jordan Spieth-, but we realize you are probably out of usage by now so we will include several other options. If for some reason you have another use, do not hesitate, lock him in, enough said. Our third option is Justin Rose who sported some of the most resiliency we have seen in a long time ;last week, as he struggled mightily on Thursday at The Barclays with a +7, 77. He bounced back with a 65 on Friday to make the cut, posted a 63 on Saturday, and ended up finishing T16. He has been absolutely amazing the past two months with a 4th at the PGA Championship, T3 at WGC Bridgestone, T4 at Quicken Loans, and T6 at US Open. The one hiccup this week for Rose is his lack of good tournament history with two missed cuts in his past five appearances and only a 16th as his best finish in that span. We like Day and Spieth more this week, but since usage is an issue we pivot to Rose. Next player we like is Matt Kuchar. A T39 was not the result we were expecting for Kuchar last week at The Barclays. Up to that point he had been trending upward since mid-July with a T7 at RBC Canadian, T25 at WGC Bridgestone, and T7 at the PGA Championship. Just like with The Barclays, Kuchar has a solid tournament history at The Deutsche Bank with a 29th last year, 4th in 2013, 35th in 2012, 25th in 2011, 11th in 2010, and 15th in 2009. We think he has the opportunity for a Top 10 in this field however. Zach Johnson is out next choice. In the past at TPC Boston he has a 16th last year, 27th in 2013, 47 in 2012, 16th in 2011, 30th in 2010, and 19th in 2009. He played great last week and finished T4, following up a mc at PGA Championship, 33rd at WGC Bridgestone, and win at The Open. We have two sleeper picks for you this week in the B-List and we will start with Kevin Kisner, who was a victim of Chambers Bay and Whistling Straits, but has not missed a cut outside of those two since mid-April. A T20 last week at The Barclays, T37 at WGC Bridgestone, T35 at John Deere, and runner-up at The Greenbrier mark his most finishes outside of the long links style courses that clearly do not fit his game. This will be Kisner’s first appearance at TPC Boston. Very solid in most every statistical category including scoring, especially Par 5 where he ranks 20th. Finally, Chris Kirk. Last week was his first tournament coming off of a broken hand. He came out rusty shooting a 76, but responded with a second round 68 and barely missed the cut. He is the defending champ and also had a 16th two years ago. Nobody will be picking him, which makes us like him even more. He is a top level talent when everything is going right for him, and if this is as good of a week as any for him to prove it.

Our Picks: Day, Spieth, Rose, Kuchar, Zach Johnson
Sleeper Picks: Kisner and Kirk

 

C-List:

Patrick Reed
Justin Thomas
Robert Streb
Russell Henley
Tony Finau
David Lingmerth

Time for our favorite list and our favorite player this week is a real close call between Justin Thomas, Tony Finau, and Robert Streb. After leading the tournament after day 2, a T16 finish for Tony Finau isn’t exactly stellar. However his consistency is outstanding over the past two months. The guy has been locked in recently with ten Top 25s in his last twelve events. His Par 4 and 5 scoring is really good as well as his birdie or better, which all make him a really solid pick again this week. The fact that he had a lousy three over par Sunday dropping him back to T39 actually is ok with us, because the attention will not be on him nearly as much as if he would have held in the Top 15, like he was the first three days. Before last week Streb had a T10 at the PGA Championship, 5th at WGC Bridgestone, T18 at The Open, T14 at John Deere, and T2 at Greenbrier. The guy is playing rock solid and we really like him this week. Last year was his first appearance at The Deutsche Bank and he too 9th. Streb has been a staple for us all year and will remain one this week. Justin Thomas had another very solid performance last week at The Barclays finishing T16. Before last week Thomas had a T56 at Wyndham, T18 at the PGA Championship, T4 at Quicken Loans, and T5 at John Deere. Much like Finau, Thomas is very good in accumulating birdies and actually ranks 2nd on tour in Par 4 scoring, one of our key stats this week. There are not any guys that we would consider sleepers necessarily in the C-List this week, so we will just add a couple other players that we think will finish the best out of everybody in this list. Although he made the cut last week at The Barclays, Russell Henley combusted on Saturday posting a 6 over 76, which destroyed any hope of a quality finish and ended up T72. He has now made 19 cuts in 22 events this season with 11 Top 25s and four Top 10s. His last previous tournaments before last week have produced a a T12 at PGA Championship, T17 WGC Bridgestone, T20 at The Open, and a 5th at Greenbrier, T20 at The Open, T17 at WGC Bridgestone, and T12 at the PGA Championship. Two appearances at The Deutsche Bank he has a 62nd in 2013 and runner-up finish last year. He is a streaky player, who can get hot with the putter, and we expect him to play well this week at TPC Boston. Finally, Danny Lee was a bit of a disappointment last week taking T30 at The Barclays, but definitely not a disaster. His current form is a T6 at WGC Bridgestone, T4 at Quicken Loans, T3 at John Deere, and win at Greenbrier mark his last four appearances outside of links style courses. Lee took 35th last year at Deutsche Bank in his first and only appearance.

Our Picks: Streb, Thomas, Finau, Henley, Lee
Sleeper Picks: None, just use the guys above, no sense in taking guys we do not like just to have a sleeper.

 

Best of luck to all of you in the Yahoo Contest!

-Fantasy Golf Insider

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