Yahoo Contest Preview- Shell Houston Open

For the second straight week, the PGA Tour stays in Texas and the Golf Club of Houston, Tournament course for the Shell Houston Open and the player’s final tune-up before The Masters. Speaking of The Masters, be sure to check out our special section devoted just to the biggest tournament of the year, where we will be posting new material throughout the time leading up to the event. The Tournament course is a par 72, measures 7,441 yards long, and is carved out of woodlands lush with oak, pine, and cypress trees. Golf Club of Houston was formerly known as Redstone Golf Club and has been hosting the Shell Houston Open since 2003 with three years being played on the Member Course and since 2006 on The Tournament Course. There are a lot of trees on this course along with wetlands and many holes that are affected by water. This fact will make accuracy a key statistic that we analyze this week. There are four Par 5s and four Par 3s on The Tournament course.

The field this week will feature 14 of the world’s top 30 including last week’s winner Jimmy Walker. Patrick Reed, Jordan Spieth, Rickie Fowler, and Sergio Garcia will all be in attendance. It will be the last chance for many to try and qualify for The Masters, serving as extra motivation.

Last year Matt Jones won his first PGA Tour event in dramatic fashion – draining a 46-foot birdie to get into a playoff, then chipping in on the first extra hole to beat Matt Kuchar. Jones began the final round six shots off the lead, but used a 6-under-par 66 to catch Kuchar, who managed only a 72 after hitting his approach into the water for bogey on the 72nd hole.

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Every tournament the overall best statistical indicator of success is Strokes Gained (Tee-to-Green, Putting, and Total). In addition to Strokes Gained, the statistic that stands out as being important this week is greens in regulation. There is quite a bit of trouble surrounding the greens at The Tournament Course and accurate approach shots are vital. In analyzing past year’s statistics we found the following from last year: Below are the players and how they ranked in greens in regulation at the Shell Houston Open and their corresponding finish. 1. Matt Kuchar (runner-up), 2. Matt Jones (winner), 3. Ben Curtis (T12), 4. Shawn Stefani (5th), 5. Rickie Fowler (6th), 6. Brice Garnett (7th), 7. Nicholas Thompon (T24) , 8. Angel Cabrera (T43), 9. Chris Stroud (T12). Greens in regulation are clearly important here.
Tournament History is a key piece of information that we analyze every week to see what players have played well in this tournament and on this course in the past. A few players that stand out this week include Matt Kuchar, Phil Mickelson, and Ben Crane. Check out our complete Tournament History Page to see how every single player has performed at the Shell Houston Open in the past.

Our sportsbook odds vs daily pricing tool identifies those players that the sportsbooks like compared to how they are priced on the daily sites. A few players that stand out as great values this week include Carlos Ortiz, Robert Garrigus, and Jonas Blixt. Check out the complete list on our odds vs daily pricing page.

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Be sure to note that Henrik Stenson, Jimmy Walker, John Peterson, and Lucas Glover have all pulled out of the Shell Houston Open.

 

A-List Picks:

 

Sergio Garcia & J.B. Holmes- Sergio is not the most popular fellow here in the states, but a lot of people will own him this week in the Yahoo Contest. He has not played up to his ability yet this season with a T31 at WGC Cadillac, T31 at Honda, and a T4 at Northern Trust. He played really well here last year with a 3rd place finish. We think Sergio is due for a breakout this week and he will gain momentum toward the Masters. A real deleted group the A-List is this week. We are not going to try and be heroes, we just want the best players. If J.B Holmes screwed you over in the Arnold Palmer raise your hand. Wow half of the people reading this just raised their hand, including us. But as we have preached many times, if nothing is fundamentally wrong with a player’s game and it is just one bad performance let it go. Capitalize on others banishing them from their rosters because of how bad they screwed them the previous tournament. Before the Arnold Palmer, Holmes had been playing lights out with a runner up at the WGC Cadillac, T22 at Northern Trust, T10 at Pebble Beach, and runner up at Farmers. Holmes currently ranks 9th in Strokes Gained Tee-To-Green, 24th in Total Strokes Gained, and 11thin Driving Distance. He has also enjoyed some success in this tournament with a 12th last year, an 8th in 2012, 42nd in 2011, and runner up in 2009. Let go of the Arnold Palmer and let him make it up to you with a great finish in Houston.

A-List Others- Bill Haas and Matt Jones

 

B-List:

 

Jordan Spieth & Lee Westwood. Here is Spieth’s current Form-2nd last week at Valero, 1st at Valspar, T17 at WGC Cadillac, T4 at Northern Trust, T7 at AT&T Pebble Beach, MC at Farmers, and T7 at WM Phoenix Open. OK so one miss out of seven isn’t too shabby. We featured Spieth in our Fantasy Golf Crystal Ball article at the start of the season as one of the players we expected to break through with a big season and we were correct. This kid is the real deal and has made us a lot of money. He likes playing in Texas and we expect him to put up another Top 10 this week. He ranks 8th in Strokes Gained Tee-To-Green, 5th in Stokes Gained Putting, and 2nd in Total Strokes Gained. For those people who have questioned the impact of the Strokes Gained statistic, need look no further than Jordan Spieth. If you have not read Fantasy Golf Insider’s in depth analysis of this statistic, we encourage you to check it out. Do Statistics Really Matter in Fantasy Golf. Spieth is the real deal and despite his lofty price on DFS, he has performed up to it in most tournaments this year. Spieth did miss the cut here last year, but we believe he is on a run right now that trumps his tournament history. We are just really liking everything about Lee Westwood right now, which is weird because we faded him just about all of last season and we were correct. This season is different however as Westwood has found something in his game. Westwood sits atop our proprietary ranking system, Who’s Hot as he absolutely dominated on the European Tour over the past several months. During that time he had a T5 at the Malaysian Open, T9 at the Omega Dubai Classic, and won the Thailand Open. Since coming over to the PGA Tour, Westwood has a T17 at Valspar, T12 at the WGC Cadillac, and a T25 at Honda. He currently ranks 22nd in Strokes Gained Tee-To-Green and 9th in Total Strokes Gained. But we saved the best for last, his tournament history.17th last year, 10th in 2013, 21st in 2012, 30th in 2011, 8th in 2010, and 11th in 2009.

B-List Others- Martin Kaymer, Danny Willett, Will Mackenzie, and Justin Rose

 

C-List:

 

Brendon Steele & Shawn Stefani- For several weeks now Steele has been knocking on the doorstep of winning a tournament and one of these weeks he is going to. He has made the cut in all 11 of the events he has played this year, with 5 Top 25s and 2 Top 10s, including an T8 last week at Valero. He has played tough courses well and he has played easy courses well. He currently ranks 10th in Strokes Gained Tee-To-Green and 16th in Total Strokes Gained. He also ranks 13th in driving distance and 49h in Greens in Regulation. His tournament history here is not good as he has missed the cut two of the past three years. This is one of those cases where we disregard tournament history because he is clearly a different player than in the past. We like when guys are “in the zone” and Steele clearly is there right now so we are going to ride him. Shawn Stefani is a guy that is consistently in the Top 30, has made 10 of 12 cuts, and has 2 Top 10s, including a runner up at the OHL Classic at Mayakoba. Over his last three tournaments he has a T26 last week at Valero, T21 at Arnold Palmer, and T17 at Valspar.He ranks 18th in Greens in Regulation, 61st in Strokes Gained Tee-To-Green, and 44th in Total Strokes Gained. Last year he finished 5th in this tournament so we are expecting a real good performance this week for Stefani.

C-List Others: Patrick Reed and Russell Henley

 

As always, best of luck you this week and let us know how you do.

All the best!

Fantasy Golf Insider Staff