Tournament Preview- WGC Cadillac Championship

From one tough course to another, the PGA Tour heads to Doral, Florida for this week’s World Golf Championships Cadillac Championship. The top 50 players in the world plus top money-winners from various world tours converge on the TPC Blue Monster at Trump National Doral. The course is an extremely challenging par 72 course measuring 7,528 yards, which ranks as the second longest track on tour and last season was the third toughest. The Monster gets its name from its famed 18th hole, where water along the entire left side torments golfers both off the tee and with the approach shot. Donald Trump plowed over $250 million dollars into renovating the course in 2013 and the renewed Blue Monster gets its second test from the world’s best golfers. The new design brought a tremendous amount of water into play and last year was proof of that with 318 balls reaching the water over the four day event. Last year was also complicated by nasty winds, which looked a lot like last week at The Honda Classic. We will pay close attention to the weather reports and see if wind and/or rain is in the forecast for this week and plan accordingly with those players who have shown the ability to overcome nasty conditions.

Last year Patrick Reed came away victorious as the youngest winner of a WGC title, going wire-to-wire in the final round for a one-shot triumph over Bubba Watson and Jamie Donaldson. He finished with an even-par 72, and his four-day total of 4-under 284. Of course you will remember the headlines focused on Reed’s comment that he is one of the best five players in the world. People were up in arms about the comment, but we actually really liked it. What is wrong with some confidence and swagger, especially when you can back it up like Reed has done over the past two seasons. He is currently ranked in the Top 20 and it won’t be long until he cracks the Top 10.

This tournament brings back great memories for Fantasy Golf Insider’s own Jeff Bergerson, who claimed second place in Draftking’s tournament last year for a cool $7,500. We will utilize his insight, along with our other experts to help our member’s cash some big paydays this week!

As far as statistics go, this week we are going to focus on driving distance and Par 5 scoring. The course features four par 3s and four par 5s, but the par 5s are not just any par 5s, they are mammoth. Hole #8 is 549 yards, #1 is 590 yards, #12 is 601, and #10 is 614 yards. Last year three out of the four leaders in driving distance were Dustin Johnson, Bubba Watson, and Patrick Reed, who finished T4, T2, and winner respectively. As for par 5 scoring the two leaders in that stat were Patrick Reed and Bubba Watson. In addition, out of the Top 14 players ranked in par 5 scoring, seven of them placed in the Top 10. Those are powerful statistics and ones that we need to factor into our strategy this week.

Last week was one of the weirdest tournaments any of us has ever seen from a fantasy golf perspective. It continued the streak of tournaments, where the task of getting every player through the cut has become next to impossible. Here are some examples: In the Draftkings $300 buy-in exactly two entrants out of 370 had all six players make the cut. In that same tournament only 35 entrants had 5 guys make the cut. Every other entrant lost at least two players to the cut, which is astounding. In the $20 Draftkings contest 47 entrants out of 5,457 had six golfers make it through the cut. That is less than 1%, absolutely staggering.

Considering the carnage, we came out of it alright. The highlights included our value plays like Daniel Berger who finished with a flurry and a 2nd place finish, which was amazing considering his price throughout the DFS industry. We also nailed Russell Knox who took T3. Those are two amazing picks and if you rostered both of them you are extremely happy. Obviously Rory’s performance was an absolute mystery. We predicted he would be heavily owned and we were correct. On Draftkings he was owned by 25% of entrants in most every contest across the board for GPPs. What we could never have predicted was that he would miss the cut. It is just one of those tournaments that we have to have a short memory about. Rory is still the best and will contend in a lot of tournaments this season. Freddie Jacobson and Keegan Bradley, who both had the best tournament histories of anybody at the Honda Classic inexplicably choked late, missed the cut and hurt us dearly. These are all examples of why we preach lineup diversification and bankroll management. Anything can happen in golf and if you owned one of these guys across all of your lineups you took a beating, but if you spread the risk, you were probably profitable. All in all, a solid week, but we look to crush the Cadillac this week.

We will continue to out-work everybody in the industry to make our members successful and profitable in season long and daily fantasy golf. As always, stick to solid lineup building ,diversification, smart game selection, and disciplined bankroll management. See: How to win playing daily fantasy golf.

This week we do not have to deal with a cut as there are only 70 players and there is no cut as all of them will play all four rounds, barring a withdrawal. The pricing on Draftkings is extremely soft, meaning salary cap does not need to be stretched very hard to fill your roster with  great players. In trial lineup building we were able to construct lineups with the likes of Graeme Mcdowell and Bill Haas as our worst players. That is soft pricing.

A key factor that we analyze every week is Tournament History. Check out our Tournament History page to see exactly who has had success in the past in this tournament. Overriding importance will be on last year’s performance as it was the only year we have seen after the renovations to Doral.

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Top Stud Plays-

 

Rory Mcilroy- The obligatory mention because he is the best golfer in the world. No matter how we try and figure out what happened last week, we cannot come up with any rationale. So we will turn the page and look for him to rebound this week. Before the missed cut, Rory won the Omega Dubai Classic, finished runner up at the Abu Dhabi HSBC, T15 at the Australian Open, and T2 at the DP World Championship. So his current form is great. Plus he is a long hitter, which will set up well at Doral. We look for him to bounce back this week. However we will be very wary of spending on him in DFS as there are so many other great alternatives for quite a bit less money.

Bubba Watson- A great fit to play well at Doral this week. Bubba is playing really well lately with a T14 at the Northern Trust, T2 at WM Phoenix Open, a 10th at Hyundai, and the winner at the WGC HSBC in November. In addition, his last three years at this tournament have been outstanding with a runner up finish last year, 18th in 2013, and a runner up finish in 2012. Bubba is currently ranked 14th in driving distance on the PGA Tour, 9th in strokes gained tee-to-green, and 4th in total strokes gained. All of these things add up to what should be a great performance again at Doral.

Matt Kuchar– There are several great things about Matt Kuchar this week. 1. His current form- T30 at Phoenix Open, T2 at Humana, T3 at the Sony Open, T17 at Hyundai. 2. His tournament history here at Doral- 13th last year, 35th in 2013, 8th in 2012, 5th in 2011, an 3rd in 2010. His statistical rankings- 15th in scoring, 32nd in strokes gained tee-to-green, 24th in total strokes gained. 4. He is extremely consistent, which makes him a great cash game player or GPP player. 5. His pricing this week- He is not one of the top priced studs this week, yet a Top 10 finish is likely. It will not cripple your salary cap as bad as a Rory or Bubba.

We also like Jason Day a lot based upon his current form although his performance in the past at Cadillac has been below his standards.

 

Top Value Plays-

 

Jamie Donaldson- Here is a guy who fits all of the criteria this week. His current form is great with a 6th place finish last week at The Honda Classic, T19 at Farmers, T46 at Phoenix Open, and a T24 at the WGC HSBC in November. He has two years of experience in the Cadillac with a T2 last year. He also fits the statistical criteria this week as he ranks 8th in Par 5 scoring and 31st in Total Strokes Gained. He is currently ranked in the middle of the pack in driving distance on the PGA Tour. He however shines in putting as he is currently ranked 4th in Strokes Gained Putting. He has been consistently good so far this year and fits all the criteria we are looking for this week so we look for him to perform nicely. The only problem we can see happening is that he becomes this week’s Freddie Jacobson as far as ownership goes. We think he is going to be heavily owned, which is a bit discouraging for GPPs, but we still will probably roster him in some of our lineups.

Greame Mcdowell– Mcdowell let us down last week with a missed cut, but he had been playing well before last week and he has a good track record at Doral. Before the Honda Classic he had a T36 at the Malaysian Open, T9 at the Omega Dubai Classic in 2015 and a T3 at the WGC HSBC and T16 at the BMW Masters in the fall. Last year Mcdowell placed 9th, in 2013 he placed 3rd, and in 2012 13th. He also had a 6th in 2010. His price is real juicy this week and people who owned him last week will be bitter so we look for ownership levels to be down. He looks as though he is the definition of VALUE this week.

J.B Holmes– A long hitter who will cut down the length of these long holes as he is currently ranked 23rd in driving distance on the PGA Tour. Holmes has been playing outstanding lately with a T22 at the Northern Trust, T10 at Pebble Beach, and T2 at Farmers, The only thing that Holmes does not have is much tournament history as he has only played here twice, but it has been a while (18th in 2010 and 40th in 2008). Holmes is also ranked 15th in Strokes Gained Tee-To-Green.

Branden Grace is also an intriguing value play as well. Take a look at his current form, as he has two wins in the last couple of months on the European Tour. He looks underpriced on most DFS sites.

 

Top Sleepers-

 

Anirban Lahiri– Ladies and gentleman the hottest golfer in the world. Will it translate into success this weekend? We will see. Lahiri is a 27 year old from India. His last 4 events played he has a 1st in the Hero Indian, T21 in the Thailand Classic, 1st at the Malaysian Open, and T50 in Abu Dhabi. He has never played in the WGC Cadillac Championship, which is a negative. He does not rank real high in any statistical categories except wins, which is all that matters to us. This tournament will be a great test to see if he can hang with the big boys.

Thongchai Jaidee– Who, you say? Jaidee plays mainly on the European Tour and in the majors. He has been playing really well lately with a T2 in Thailand a couple of weeks ago, T20 in Malaysia, T35 in the Omega Dubai, T23 in the Qatar Masters, 6th in Thailand, and T7 at Nedbank. A very nice stretch of play. In November Jaidee took T41 at the WGC HSBC. Last year here he took an impressive 6th at Doral. The only thing we do not like about Jaidee is that he is not a long hitter, as he ranks 114th in driving distance on the European Tour. He played really well last year in a couple of majors with a T37 at the Masters and T39 at the British Open.

Marc Warren– Another European Tour guy. If you are playing in large GPPs these are the guys that can help lead you to a big time top three finish. Why? Because they will not be highly owned and you need one or two guys owned by less than 10% of the field to end high on the leaderboard to make a run at winning a contest with hundreds or thousands of entrants. You can certainly cash in these without these guys, but the reason we play in the GPPs is for the Top 3 money. Otherwise the variance is far too great to be profitable. It is however very difficult to identify which low cost guys are going to make a run. That is why we highlight several sleepers each week who have the “best” chance based upon our research to do well. This does not mean they are necessarily all going to, but we always stress fantasy golf is about probabilities and not certainties. Anyway Mr. Warren was lucky enough to have the longest write up this week, so why don’t we talk about him now. Warren has been playing very well on the European Tour with a T25 in Thailand, 9th in Malaysia, T13 in the Omega Dubai, and a 2nd at the Qatar Masters. Warren had a T35 at the WGC HSBC as well. Warren also played well in a couple of majors last year with a T39 in the British Open and T15 in the PGA Championship. He is not very long off the tee ranking 100th on the European tour, but he is one heck of a putter and ranks 2nd. We like him considering his price throughout the DFS world.

Check out Joost Luiten as well, Zach Turcotte nailed him in his Daily Spin article last week for The Honda Classic and he had a weekend charge for an 11th place finish. He is showing up as having great value on our sportsbook odds vs. Daily pricing page as well.

 

Deep Sleeper-

 

Alexander Noren– A Swedish player who plays on the European tour, although he actually played at Oklahoma State University before turning pro in 2005. He has played here at Doral before and has a 20th place in 2013 under his belt. Lately he has been playing extremely well on the European Tour with a T11 at Thailand, 2nd at the Omega in Dubai, 9th at the Qatar Masters, and T37 at Abu Dhabi. A very nice stretch of golf for the Swede. Noren currently ranks 6th in stroke average on the European Tour and 26th in greens in regulation. His driving distance is not impressive as he ranks 100th in driving distance in Europe, but you cannot have it all with a sleeper. Noren is showing up as having great value compared to the sportsbook odds, found on our odds vs. sportsbook pricing page. This is a very speculative play, but we like it a lot especially since not many people will be on him. Probably not a good cash game player in DFS, but might turn out to be valuable in GPPs.

 

Top Fades-

 

We are going to mention a few guys this week that just do not look quite right lately. Justin Rose– We are not sure if he is still being bothered by his injured wrist, but we do know that he does not look like the stud golfer we have grown accustomed to. Let’s hold off on him a bit and see if he can pull it together. Gary Woodland is another guy who is not playing well lately. His game sets up well for Doral, but we can’t choose him the way he is playing. Charl Schwartzel- Great tournament history at Doral, but how do you choose a guy considering how he has been playing in the last 2 tournaments?

 

Good luck to all of you this week, we hope you continue to be profitable. We think this is going to be an outstanding week for our members! Remember, be sure to let us know of your successes via email or Twitter. There may just be a t-shirt in it for you.