Tournament Preview- Waste Management Phoenix Open

Well fantasy golf fans, if you are not getting excited for this weekend’s Waste Management Phoenix Open PGA event, then you better check your pulse.  From attendance reaching the vicinity of 500,000+ to one of the most ruckus and exciting holes on the PGA Tour all year (the par 3, number 16 stadium hole). Not to mention Phil Mickelson is in the field (won this event in 2013), one of the hottest golfers on the planet Jordan Spieth tees it up, and oh yeah some guy named Eldrick Woods is making his 2015 debut in Scottsdale as well.

Ten players from the top 25 in the world rankings will be in the field. Reigning champion Kevin Stadler won’t be able to defend, still nursing a hairline fracture in his left hand that caused him to withdraw from Kapalua two weeks ago.

Finally, the thing that gets us at Fantasy Golf Insider the most excited, big time contests. Draftkings has their $125,000 Winter Golf Classic, and $20k to the winner. Does it have your name on it? We will do our best to try and help you win it. And when you do, let us hear about it.

Fantasy Golf Insider will try and build upon its momentum as we have been absolutely unconscious this year, now three events in. Last week at the Humana Challenge we nailed nailed Bill Haas (win), Matt Kuchar (T2), and Ryan Palmer (T10). Our sleepers Shawn Stefani (T15), John Peterson (T20), Fabian Gomez (T30), Cameron Tringale (T30), and deep sleeper Heath Slocum (made cut and T69) all paid off their price tags. Patrick Reed and Chris Kirk both underperformed and disappointed us, but at least it wasn’t a total disaster as they both made the cut. The only real miss last week was sleeper David Hearn, which out of nowhere laid an egg.  He had been playing so well up to that point. That happens every once in a while, but if that was your only miss, you did just fine.

We however will never rest on our laurels, as we continue to our relentless quest to give you, our members the absolute best information available anywhere and allow you to be successful in season long and daily fantasy golf.

The TPC Scottsdale measures 7,266 yards long and is a par 71 course, which is about thirty yards above the average length of courses on tour this year.

The weather looks to be nice, as it usually is, and won’t be a factor. Clear to Partly cloudy, temperatures in the upper 60’s and only a 10% chance of rain all weekend will make the scores low.

Last year Kevin Stadler, the “smallrus” or “mini walrus” or whatever you would like to refer to him as, won this event by closing with a 3-under 68 for a one-stroke victory over Bubba Watson and Graham DeLaet.  After Stadler and Watson each saved par after hitting into the water on the par-5 15th, Stadler tied Watson for the lead with a par on the par-3 16th hole. Watson hit into the front left bunker on the stadium hole and his 6-footer missed to the left. At the 347-yard 17th, they each drove the green and two-putted for birdie. On the par-4 18th, Stadler hit his 110-yard approach to the back right pin to 10 feet. Watson drove into the right rough and hammered his 120-yard second over the green. Watson bladed his shot from the rough into the bank next to the green and it ran 5 feet past the hole. After Stadler missed his birdie try and tapped in for par, Watson’s par try slid by the left side.

Last season, we had Stadler as one of our picks and thanks in large part to his win, cashed nicely in several tournaments. One of the angles we always like in this tournament are guys who know TPC Scottsdale course well. Whether it is course knowledge, home cooking, or the hometown crowd, every year, players from the area have a lot of success. For instance, Kevin Stadler, TPC Scottsdale is his home course, as he calls Scottsdale home. Phil Mickelson, the 2013 champ has made ten Top 10s over his career here and he is an Arizona State graduate and also has spent a lot of time living in Scottsdale. How about a guy who flys under the radar, Pat Perez. He has four Top 25s in his last five appearances here including an 11th last year, an Arizona State graduate and Scottsdale resident. The list is lengthy and the tournament success is solid.

A key factor that we analyze every week is Tournament History and The Waste Management Phoenix Open tends to be kind to certain players year after year. Check out our Tournament History page to see exactly who has had success in the past in this tournament. Check out the members section below for some of the key standouts in this tournament in the past.

Fantasy Golf Insider also analyzes the pricing on all the major daily sites each week and actually compares the pricing to a consensus of ten different sportsbooks odds. Check out this tool, it is extremely valuable and helps you identify value.  Odds vs. Daily Pricing.

For access to our Top picks, value picks, sleepers, fades, and more become a premium member.

Those players who have played college golf in Arizona or are currently Scottsdale residents include:  Phil Mickelson, Pat Perez, Martin Laird, Paul Casey, Matt Jones, Robert Garrigus, Kevin Streelman, Geoff Ogilvy, Ricky Barnes, and Troy Merritt.  We are not saying we like all of these guys to play well this weekend, but we have found a significant trend of Arizona guys playing well in this tournament.  Use this along with the other key variables to determine which of them will be the best this weekend.

Players who have great course history include: Brendan Steele, Scott Piercy, Pat Perez, Bryce Molder, Bubba Watson. Hunter Mahan, Webb Simpson, Harris English, etc.  Check out the Tournament History page for every golfer over the past seven years.

This week there are so many great middle tier value guys that the strategy we are recommending for daily play is to go with a balanced lineup rather than studs and scrubs. For season long leagues, feel free to ride Spieth, Watson, or Fowler.

 

Top Stud Picks-

 

Jordan Spieth – Ladies and gentleman the hottest golfer on the planet. The 21 year old has shown flashes of brilliance including his runner-up finish at the Masters in 2014, but was unable to win a single event in 27 PGA tournaments. That will change this season. Spieth had a T3 at the Dunlop Phoenix Open on the Asian tour, then won the Australian Open in November by a convincing 6 strokes with a blistering final round 63. He then shook off any jet lag and won the Hero World Challenge four days later. Spieth not only won that tournament, but he dominated it and shot a 26 under par, 10 strokes better than runner up Henrik Stenson. His confidence has reached a new high and his play is showing it. We predict big things from Spieth this year and now is as good of time as ever to hop on the train.

Rickie Fowler – This is the year for Rickie to be hoisting some hardware. After a 2014 season of near misses, Fowler did not win a single event on tour. That will change for the better, much like his swing has with the help of Butch Harmon. Rickie had ten top 10s in 26 events last season, including top 5s in each of the four majors. So far this season he has a T66 in Abu Dhabi, T6 at the Hero World Challenge, and T3 at the HSBC. His track record in this tournament is not great with missed cuts in his last two appearances, and only one Top 10 in his career here, but we believe he is a different golfer than in the past. He is too good not to start winning, and thus we predict he will win at least 2 events this season and get a major under his orange belt, maybe this weekend in Arizona.

Bubba Watson – Always entertaining, Bubba usually plays well in this tournament and has played pretty well lately. Although his up and down play may cause you some stress, he almost always makes the cut (18 of 21 in 2014), and cracks the Top 10 about 1/3 of the time (8 in 2014). So far this year he placed tenth (but only in a 34 player field) at the Hyundai Tournament of Champions, 25th in Thailand in December, T11 (out of an 18 player field) at the Hero World Challenge, and won the HSBC in November. Typical up and down performances from Mr. Watson. He is clearly one of the best golfers in the field but his daily price is really high. Our best advice is to utilize him in your season long leagues, but probably fade him in daily.

 

Top Value Picks-

 

Russell Henley– Not too many players have been better than Russell Henley this year. So far he has a T17 at the Sony Open, T3 at the Hyundai Tournament of Champions, T35 at the HSBC, and T4 at Mcgladrey. His history is not great at this event with a missed cut last year and 67th in 2013. He is currently ranked 7th in Total Strokes Gained and has some momentum from the Hyundai and Sony Open and gives us some value.

Robert Streb– Streb has become our go to guy. In his 5 events of the fall season, Streb was 5 for 5 in made cuts and had 3 top 10s. He proved that he can handle the pressure of closing out a tournament by winning the McGladrey Classic in October. He is currently ranked in our top 5 hottest golfers according to our current form rankings.

Brooks Koepka– We like Koepka a lot this year and featured him in our Crystal Ball for 2015 as one of top players this year. He has placed in the top 10 in both PGA events he entered in the fall including a tied for 8th in the Frys.com Open and a tied for 4th in the Shriners. In addition, he won the Turkish Airlines Open on the European Tour in early November. His two PGA events in the fall rank him second in Total Strokes Gained. We are expecting big things from Koepka this season and think he might be under the radar for most after placing in only two top 10s all his PGA events of 2014. He is little bit more of a volatile player as far as making cuts, but he has the ability to make top 10s consistently and even win an event.

Scott Piercy-Here is someone who has played well recently and also has a great track record at the Phoenix Open. Piercy has 3 Top 10s in 6 appearances including 15th last year and 3rd two years ago. His last 2 Sony Open, T16 OHL, cut sanderson farms, T17 Mcgladrey, T7 Shriners, cut Frys.com.

Jamie Donaldson– Probably unnoticed by most because he has been playing overseas, Donaldson has quietly moved his way up the World Rankings thanks to a T9 in Abu Dabi, aT12 at the DP World Championships, a T19 at the Turkish Airlines, a T24-HSBC, and a T4-BMW masters. Great credentials, yet we haven’t heard him mentioned by anybody this week. Well we will be the first to mention Donaldson as he is underpriced on the daily sites and definitely worth a roster spot.

 

Top Sleepers-

 

Ryo Ishikawa – A big disappointment in the Humana Challenge last weekend, mostly due to his atrocious putting, we hope his ball striking, in which he is ranked in Strokes Gained Tee-To-Green can make up for it. His salary makes him very tempting this week as he has been a consistent Top 30 guy up until last week. We will roster him to save some money for the big dogs this week.

Jason Bohn– After missing the first cut of the fall at the Frys.com, Bohn has made five straight and two top 10s including a T2 at Sanderson Farms. He had a T30 last week at the Humana Challenge. His history in the Phoenix Open is not impressive with a 34th last year and two missed cuts before then. Definitely worth a roster spot this weekend.

Honorable Mention:
Martin Laird, Shawn Stefani, and Bryce Molder.

 

Top Fades:

 

Tiger Woods– Until he can show us that he can compete again we will continue to fade him. We have been very happy we have faded him for over a year now. His chipping around the green at The Hero World Challenge (basically his home course) looked like mine after I had been visited by the drink cart girl and she poured me stiff Captain Morgan and cokes about six times. He is inevitably overpriced on all daily sites as well.

Angel Cabrera– It has just become habit to fae this guy and we have been correct everytime, so why not continue. His course history has been lousy with three missed cuts in five appearances and best finish of 36th. Yuck. He has not been playing good golf lately either. Once every full moon he will jump up and make a run like at the Greenbrier last year, but we are all about probability here at Fantasy Golf Insider, so we will fade him.

Hunter Mahan– Not too many people know this, but Mahan’s wife is pregnant and due in the next few weeks. We all know what happened last time his wife went into labor (see RBC Canadien Open 2013). Alright I will save you the time, he was the tournament leader after 2 rounds and he got the call that his wife was going into labor so he split. Withdrew from the tournament and left his fantasy owners crying. So knowing this information, we are going to be fading him until his wife gives birth. Not to mention Mahan just seems content cracking the Top 10 every once and a while and not real interested in using his sick ability to the fullest. In several interviews he has stated that he is just happy to be here and wants to appreciate every day. Not the kind of cold blooded assassin I want on my fantasy team.

Best of Luck this weekend Fantasy Golfers and don’t forget to tell us about your success.