Tournament Preview- Valspar Championship

Before we get started, we would like to extend our congratulations to a couple of people. First of all, to one of our premium members, Glen a.k.a Choron, who won the $300 Draftkings $300K Miami Classic and won $100,000!!!!!! He very impressively outlasted 1,111 entrants to win the top prize. An absolutely incredible feat. Glen was nice enough to grant us an interview and talk about his strategy for winning the monstrous prize. We will post that interview soon on our website. We would also like to congratulate our own Zach Turcotte (Myzteriouzly), who had teams take 4th place for $10,000 in that same contest and 10th for $1,666. Choron and Myzteriouzly actually had five of the same players on their winning rosters. If you read “The Daily Spin” written by Zach, you would have done extremely well as his picks absolutely tore it up this weekend and helped our members make a tremendous amount of money!

The PGA Tour continues its Florida swing and heads to Palm Harbor at the Innisbrook Resort and Copperhead Golf Course, which is a par 71 and measures 7,340 yards (one hundred yards longer than the average course on tour this year). The course features four Par 5s and five par 3s. The tournament has held many names over the years including the Tampa Bay Classic and the Chrysler Open. It currently is call the Valspar Championship. The field isn’t going to make you forget about the majors, but what do you expect sandwiched in between the WGC Cadillac and the Arnold Palmer Invitational. Bottom line, the field is not the greatest, but that only gives those who are willing to put in the work to study and prepare the advantage in this week’s contests.

Copperhead has a lot of trees, double doglegs, and is unlike the last two weeks tournament courses in that it is not very flat. It generally ranks as one of the toughest courses on tour. The final three holes are referred to as the Snake Pit. Because of the massive amount of trees and hazards, players will not just be able to bash away this week without any consequences. Driving distance will be important, but only if the drive is accurate. For this reason we will look at driving distance and driving accuracy in combination. In addition since there are five Par 3 holes we are going to look at Par 3 birdie or better average. As always we look at Strokes Gained both Total and Tee-To-Green. If you have not already, checked out our articles called “Do statistics really matter in fantasy golf” written by our own Jeff Bergerson, you should.

You also need to take note that we go back to having a cut this week (after round 2) after a week off of a cut at the WGC Cadillac last week.  Keep that in mind when building your DFS rosters as we need to get the most guys through the cut as we can.

Last year John Senden birdied twice in his final pass through the Snake Pit to edge out Kevin Na by a stroke. The 42-year-old Aussie chipped in for birdie at No.16 to break a three-way tie for the lead, following with a 20-foot birdie at the par-3 17th that Na matched to keep hopes alive for a playoff. Na’s drive at No.18, though, came to rest in the first cut of rough and his second shot rolled to the back of the green. Senden, who jumped into contention with a Saturday 64, picked up his first victory anywhere since the 2006 Australian Open.

Our results from the Fantasy Golf Insider staff last week were very good. Bubba was a solid stud pick as he placed 3rd. Rory and Kuchar performed fine, but were a little disappointing with a T9 and T23. We didn’t mention Dustin in our main preview although we should have as we liked him. Zach Turcotte featured him in his column The Daily Spin, so we are hoping you read his article as well. J.B Holmes turned out to be our best pick as we listed him as one of our favorite value picks of the week and he delivered with a runner up finish. We mentioned Jamie Donaldson as a value pick, but also said that a good strategy might be to fade him because we felt ownership levels of him would be really high. We were correct as he was owned by more than 30% of the field in most DFS contests. That combined with his sub-par T44 made him a successful fade.  Our biggest miss of the week was Graeme Mcdowell. We are very disappointed in his performances the last two weeks as his tournament history had been great at Honda and Cadillac. We watched him very closely this weekend and think that he might be nursing an injury or something. That or he just stinks. He finished T56 and we will have to fade him until we see different. We had one great sleeper with Marc Warren and two lousy ones with Lahiri and Jaidee. We found out those guys cannot compete with the big boys despite their wins overseas. We were spot on with our fades of Justin Rose (55th), Charl Schwartzel (T44), and Gary Woodland (T23).

We will continue to out-work everybody in the industry to make our members successful and profitable in season long and daily fantasy golf. As always, stick to solid lineup building, diversification, smart game selection, and disciplined bankroll management. See: How to win playing daily fantasy golf.

A key factor that we analyze every week is Tournament History. Check out our Tournament History page to see exactly who has had success in the past in this tournament. Several guys stand out as perennially great players at Copperhead. Luke Donald is one of those players as he has a run of four consecutive top-6 finishes on Copperhead, including his 2012 win and a tie for fourth last year. Jim Furyk is another guy who plays well as he has five straight top-20 finishes with a victory in 2010 and a playoff loss to Donald two years later. One interesting stat is that just three of 14 defending champions has finished in the Top 10 a year later.

For access to our Top picks, value picks, sleepers, fades, and more become a premium member.

Top Stud Picks:

 

Jim Furyk- If you were to design a player that is tailor made for this course, it would be Jim Furyk. That could explain why he has dominated this tournament in the past. In his last five appearances at Copperhead Furyk has a 20th, 7th, 2nd, 13th, and a win. Are you interested yet? Furyk is not long off the tee ranking 183rd on the PGA Tour in Driving Distance, but what he lacks in length he makes up in accuracy where he currently ranks 10th. Since his return from a long hiatus Furyk has performed very well with a T12 last week at the WGC Cadillac, T14 at the Northern Trust, and T7 at Pebble Beach. He is an ideal player in cut formats as he almost assuredly will being playing the weekend. The only downside to Furyk this weekend could be his ownership levels in DFS. Last week we advised to possibly fade Jamie Donaldson since he was going to be owned by such a large percentage of the field, and it paid off for a lot of you. Furyk is a little different this week as he is a much better player than Donaldson and he plays so well on this course. Roster him in most of your cash games and maybe fade him on one of your GPPs just in case he flops, but overall you probably will like his results this week.

Matt Kuchar- We recommended Kuchar last week and he let us down a bit with a T23. It wasn’t a complete disaster however as his price point was very reasonable. This week the field is much less difficult to navigate plus there is a cut, which makes Kuchar more valuable since he is so consistent. Before last week he had been playing well with a T30 at Phoenix Open, T2 at Humana, T3 at the Sony Open, T17 at Hyundai. His tournament history here Copperhead is solid with a 38th last year, a 14th in 2013, 10th in 2012, and a 12th in 2009 (he did not play in 2010 or 2011). He currently ranks 25th in total strokes gained. Kuchar is especially good for cash games in DFS as he has a high floor, but he also has a relatively high ceiling for GPPS.

We would be crazy not to mention Luke Donald this week, or would we?  Donald has absolutely dominated this tournament, thus his price reflects that fact and his ownership will as well.  You might want a little exposure to him, but we are not thrilled with his value this week.

Top Value Picks:

 

Martin Laird- After a couple of weeks off Laird looks to continue his solid play lately as he had a T7 at The Farmers, T5 at the WM Phoenix Open, and T15 at Humana. He ranks well in many statistical categories including 15th in Strokes Gained Tee-To-Green, 17th in Total Strokes Gained, 21st in Greens in Regulation, 29th in Driving Distance, and 5th in Par three birdie or better percentage. Laird’s tournament history here at Copperhead is not great though as he did not play last year, 70th in 2013, MC in 2012, 5th in 2011, and 28th in 2010. Chances are that he will be overlooked in DFS since he has not played in a few weeks and might be an opportunity in large GPPs.

Kevin Na- Not an impressive first round at the WGC Cadillac last week as Na shot a 74, but the next three rounds he put up 71s to charge into a final finish of T9. His current form has not been overly impressive, but not terrible either as he has a T61 at Northern Trust, MC at Pebble, T26 WM Phoenix Open, T48 at Humana, and T64 at Sony. He has a pretty good track record at Copperhead however with a runner up finish last year, DNP in 2013, 38th in 2012, 44th in 2011, 72nd in 2010, and 8th in 2009. Na currently ranks 10th in Par 3 Birdie or better percentage. Na might be a good fit if you are building a balanced lineup in DFS. He is most likely going to make the cut and if you can get your other guys through you will do fine.

Daniel Berger- We are hoping during his week off that people forgot about Daniel Berger. We last saw him with an outstanding run into the playoff at the Honda Classic before losing to Paddy Harrington. That was not his only great performance this year however. Before that Berger had a T10 at Pebble Beach, T24 at The Farmers, T10 at WM Phoenix Open, and T13 at the Sony Open. He only missed the cut at Humana. Maybe he just doesn’t like easy tracks? To add to his credentials this week Berger ranks 24th in greens in regulation, 15th in driving distance, 26th in Total Strokes Gained, and 24th in Strokes Gained Tee-To-Green. He is a really solid young player and we think he has another solid outing this weekend.

Jason Dufner- A combination of people not liking skinny Duf and his erratic play so far this year have combined for ownership levels to be way down. We say, let’s give him one more week. His game fits well on Copperhead as he ranks 20th in driving accuracy and 34th in Strokes Gained Tee-To-Green. He also has a good course history where he has taken a 14th, 21st, 10th, 28th, 28th, and 17th the last six years. No, he did not play well last week, but Doral was a long course and Dufner is not a long hitter (180th in driving distance). Before that he had a T17 at the Honda Classic after missing the cut at WM Phoenix Open and Humana the two prior tournaments. Should you have him on 100% of your roster, probably not, but we are expecting a very solid performance from skinny Duf this week and lower ownership levels.

Will Mackenzie- After featuring him in our Fantasy Golf Crystal Ball article for 2015, we picked him in his return in the Honda Classic after injury and he let us down. Maybe it was rust, who knows, but we are back on board with Mackenzie this week. He looked really solid with a T6 at Puerto Rico last week and he dominated in the fall. He currently ranks 3rd in Strokes Gained Tee-To-Green, 2nd in Total Strokes Gained, 3rd in greens in regulation, and 25th in driving accuracy. On top of that he took 4th here last year. We like Mackenzie to play well now that he has a couple of tournaments under his belt after the long layoff.

We also like Charles Howell III as a cut machine in DFS contests.

 

Top Sleeper Picks:

 

Will Wilcox- Here is a pick that could make us look like fools or geniuses, we think the latter. One thing is for sure that Wilcox will be under most people’s radars. Who in their right mind was watching The Puerto Rico Open last week? The answer: We were. Because that is why you come to Fantasy Golf Insider, we follow golf everywhere. Those who were not watching did not see an impressive outing from Wilcox as he had a T6. Last week was not the first time he looked good in 2015, he also had a T18 at Pebble Beach. In the fall he also had a T14 at Sanderson Farms. Wilcox earned a top-10 exemption into this week’s tournament. Overall the 28-year-old has made 23 starts on the PGA TOUR, but he has three top 10s and another five top 25s. He is playing this year on a conditional status. Wilcox is currently ranked 8th in greens in regulation and 17th in driving accuracy. We probably would not recommend putting him in your cash game lineups, but for GPPs he might prove valuable to you.

Adam Hadwin- We have been on Hadwin for the last two tournaments he has played and he has delivered for us, yet his price still remains reasonable. Obviously no tournament history for Hadwin, but he has been playing well lately with a T31 at Honda, T22 at the Northern Trust, T32 at the Farmers, and a T47 at Humana. (He did have missed cuts at WM Phoenix Open and Sony). For his price point in DFS, he looks good and is a pretty high quality scrub in a studs and scrubs lineup.

Steve Wheatcroft- We are not quite sure why “experts” other than us at Fantasy Golf Insider are not talking about Wheatcroft. We have mentioned him as a solid option the last several tournaments he has played in and he has delivered multiples of his price each time. He had a T22 at Honda, T51 at Pebble Beach, T64 at Farmers, and T2 at Humana. Not bad for a guy in the $4k range on Draftkings. He doesn’t rank high in any statistical categories (58th in driving accuracy), but he would be a decent option to save cap money on and roster in GPPS.

 

Deep Sleeper:

 

Justin Leonard-  Many of you have sworn off Leonard because he has burned you in the past, but he usually performs well at Copperhead if not anywhere else. In his last five appearances here he has a 54th, 4th, 29th, 20th, and 20th. He is clearly past his prime, and has only a T56 at the Northern Trust, T53 at WM Phoenix Open, and T44 at Sony with missed cuts at Farmers and Humana. We only recommend him as a desperation play if all you have is coins left in your couch cushions for salary cap dollars.

 

Top Fades:

 

Justin Rose-  The only explanation is that Rose is still be dealing with his lingering wrist injury.  How else could a guy of his talent be playing so poorly?  Until we see Rose play respectable again we will be fading him, especially since he is one of the highest priced players in DFS this week.  Not worth the risk.

 

As always best of luck to you. Our top priority is to make our premium members profitable playing fantasy golf. Nothing makes us happier than to see steady bankroll building and also huge scores like last week from our members. Let us know how you do and go kill’em at Valspar.