Tournament Preview- The Masters

Here we go Fantasy Golf Fans, the biggest week of the year and we can barely contain our excitement. From those of you in season long leagues to office pools to you DFS players, everybody loves The Masters. Of course there is a lot of excitement surrounding Draftking’s Millionaire Maker Event, which is the largest in fantasy golf history. Our top priority is to have one of our own, Fantasy Golf Insider Members win that million dollar prize and etch their name into fantasy golf history. Of course we ask that when you do, you remember the little people, like us here at Fantasy Golf Insider.

It is easy to get caught up in all the excitement of the Masters, but we want to point out that it is important to stick to the core rules that we abide by throughout the entire year, like bankroll management and game selection, see How to win Playing Daily Fantasy Golf. While all the attention is on the Millionaire Maker event, and rightfully so, this is one of the best times all year (in addition to the fall season) to make money and build your bankroll by playing in cash games, like 50/50s. Why you ask? Because everybody wants to be involved with the Masters, whether they follow golf closely all year or just for this weekend. New players to DFS, people just jumping in for the Masters will fill these contests, which will provide you, the fantasy golf expert the edge. By reading our information and studying our tools, you will have such a tremendous advantage over these newbies that you should make a killing. So, play a lot of cash games (within your bankroll), in addition to taking your shot at history with the Millionaire Maker.

Last week for the Shell Houston Open we had an unbelievable week with our tournament previews. We have heard from so many of you about your successes last week. This is why we offer our website, to help our members be profitable and it is weeks like last week that prove it. One of our Value plays, J.B Holmes was victorious and propelled a lot of our member’s lineups. Our top stud play was Jordan Spieth and he came through with a runner up finish. Other highlights were value plays Shawn Stefani T25, Brendon Steele with a T25. Also a few of our sleepers did well with Brandon De Jonge leading the way with a T5. Our deep sleeper, Stewart Cink made the cut and ended up with a T50, which was huge for his price-point in DFS. We had a couple of disappointments with Lee Westwood and Matt Jones missing the cut.

Augusta National, in Augusta Georgia is of course home to The Masters and has been since 1934. The iconic course is a par 72, measures in at 7,435 yards, features 100 acres of fairway and 40 acres of rough. There are 44 bunkers throughout the course. Six water hazards come into play on Nos. 2, 11, 12, 13, 15 and 16. The best-known water feature at Augusta National Golf Club is Rae’s Creek, which impacts the three holes of Amen Corner (11, 12, and 13). Perennial ryegrass is used on the tees, fairways and rough and bentgrass is used on the greens. The signature magnolia trees and azaleas will be in full bloom offering breathtaking scenery. Each hole at Augusta National is named after a flowering shrub or tree.

Augusta has been expanded, with yardage added four times from 1999-2006. This is important to note, so we do not place much importance on tournament history prior to that era. It is also important to note that the cut takes place after the second round and it is the Top 50 players with ties plus anybody who is within 10 strokes of the lead. For reference, 51 players made the cut last year.

Of course you have heard Tiger Woods will be making his return, which is exciting to those in the golf world, the everyday person who is only interested if Tiger plays, and all of us who want to watch him and feel better about our own short game (that is a joke). In addition to Tiger, Rory Mcilroy will be attempting to win his third straight major title. Bubba Watson will be trying to defend his title and win his third green jacket in the last four years.

Last year Watson used a two-shot swing on consecutive holes to end the front nine to overtake rookie Jordan Spieth on the way to a three-shot victory. Spieth led by two as they approached the eighth tee, but stumbled with bogeys at the 8th and 9th while Watson drained back-to-back birdies. Spieth then found Rae’s Creek at No.12, and pretty much sealed the deal for Watson.

As always we look at the statistic Strokes Gained (Tee-To-Green, Putting, and Total) first and foremost when determining success. The Par 3 and 4 holes do not yield a lot of birdies so players who score well on Par 5 holes are going to have the advantage. Driving distance is thus a key statistic this week, but accuracy is also important. The fairways ungulate quite a bit so tee shots in the correct spot are critical. That is the main reason lefties tend to have an advantage at Augusta and thus so much success. At least six holes favor a right to left tee shot. Right handers who can hit high quality draw shots have an advantage, but lefties who hit their fade have more of an advantage. For those of you who play golf, you know that a fade shot generally has a higher trajectory than a draw. This is important because it allows more control after the ball hits as it will not produce as much roll. A draw by a right-hander has a lower trajectory and thus it is so much harder to control where it ends ups. The ending position of the tee shot, especially on the Par 5s is critical since it dictates whether guys are able to have a legitimate shot at the green or whether they are forced to lay up. This is where Bubba Watson has such a tremendous advantage, not only does he hit it long, but he is able to control the balls landing with his fade. Greens in regulation and Par 4 scoring will also be statistics we analyze closely this week.

A key factor that we analyze every week is Tournament History and at Augusta, it is one of the most important factors, but mostly over the last 7 years, since the course has changed so much since 2006. Check out our Tournament History page to see exactly who has had success in the past in The Masters.

In our special Masters section our own Jeff Bergerson wrote an article called How to win $1,000,000: The Ultimate Guide to Winning The Masters Draftkings Millionaire Maker DFS Tournament, and if you have not read it, we would highly recommend it. In the article, he talks about building a winning lineup for the Millionaire Maker, and how you will need to have the winner on your roster along with five other guys on your roster placing in the Top 10. This strategy discounts finding value in the field, because it is not about having guys that outperform their price, but rather guys who finish in the Top 10. Having a guy on your roster that costs $5,000 who ends up finishing 30th is fine, he outperformed his price, but you are not going to win the $1M. So finding value is not as important as it is most every other week of the year. Thus it does not make sense to fade high priced players, just because of the fact that they are high priced. If you believe they are going to win the tournament, they need to be on your roster.

We have done a tremendous amount of research in preparation for the biggest tournament of the year, and are confident that we will highlight the players who have the best chance to succeed this week in The Masters and allow you to be successful in your season long or DFS contests. Now let’s get a Fantasy Golf Insider Member to the winner’s circle and crown them the first millionaire fantasy golfer!

For access to our Top picks, value picks, sleepers, fades, and more become a premium member.

Top Stud Picks:

 

Rory McIlroy – Winner of the last two major championships, Rory wants badly to complete the career Grand Slam as The Masters is the only major he has not one. His current form on the PGA Tour has not been bad, but not up to his very high standards thus far with a T11 at Arnold Palmer, T9 at WGC Cadillac, and a MC at Honda. In the past at Augusta, Rory has an 8th in 2014, 25th in 2013, and 40th in 2012. We think he has a very legitimate chance of winning the Masters, so you season long players should select him. For you DFS players, do not be scared off because of his salary. As we mentioned before, if he wins the tournament his salary will be irrelevant. (GPP only. The fact that he will drain your budget so much is the reason we do not like Rory in cash games. He may very well win the tournament, but that is not the goal in cash games, it is to get six guys to outperform their price and make the cut)

Bubba Watson – As we talked about earlier, no course sets up better for a player than Augusta does for Watson. Bubba is long off the tee and his right to left working fade works perfectly on a lot of holes. Watson has won the Masters two of the past three years and appears to be locked in with his current form as well. The big questions surrounding Bubba are always consistency and putting, both of which he seems to have improved upon thus for this season. He has a 3rd at WGC Cadillac, T14 at Northern Trust, T2 at WM Phoenix Open, 10th at Hyundai. So far this season Bubba ranks 7th in Strokes Gained Tee-To-Green, 14th in Total Driving, 24th in Greens in Regulation, and 6th in Par 4 scoring. Bubba is an excellent option for one and done leagues as Augusta is where he shines. (GPP only, for the same reason as Rory)

Jordan Spieth – Well we have recommended him every week so far this year, so why stop now. Week in and week out, Spieth delivers and has proven to be the stud we projected him to be in our Crystal Ball for 2015 article we wrote before the season started. In that article we predicted he would win multiple events this year, and he already has one. His last three tournaments have yielded a runner up last week at Shell Houston Open, a runner-up finish at Valero, and a win at the Valspar. Last year he narrowly missed a Masters championship as he finished runner-up to Watson. He currently ranks 8th in Strokes Gained Tee-To-Green and 5th in Par 4 scoring. We like Spieth in every format of fantasy golf this week and look for him deliver for us like he has most every week so far this season. (Cash game & GPP)

Dustin Johnson-It appears that Johnson has finally gotten his head straightened out, which has always been the one thing standing between him and greatness. It might be a bit early in his comeback to classify him as a dominate player on the tour but he is off to a good start. In his appearances since returning from his layoff Johnson has a T4 at Pebble Beach, 2nd at Northern Trust, MC @Honda, win at WGC Cadillac, T6 at Valero. He missed the cut here last year and took 13th in 2013. Before that he had 38th place finishes in 2011 and 2010, and 30th in 2009. (Mostly GPP, but also is a decent value in Cash games)

 

Top Value Picks:

 

Jimmy Walker – Skipping the Shell Houston Open last week and electing to head to Augusta and get a couple extra practice rounds in shows that Walker is really looking to take the next step and win a major. Walker is starting this season with the same success as he did last year by winning two weeks ago at the Valero and also the Sony earlier this season. He also had a runner up at the Hyundai as well as a T7 at Farmers. Walker currently ranks 12th in Par 4 Scoring, 21st in Greens in Regulation, 12th Strokes Gained Tee to Green. Last year in his only appearance at Augusta, Walker played well and ended up 8th in 2014. According to our sportsbook odds vs. daily pricing tool, Walker ranks as one of the best values available. You might say, you said value does not matter, well it does when you are talking about a guy who can place in the Top 10 and possibly win the tournament. Roster him. (Cash Game & GPP)

Lee Westwood – Last weekend at the Shell Houston Open, Westwood was a huge disappointment as he had a great tournament history and we expected big things, but he missed the cut. Westwood also has an outstanding tournament history at Augusta with a 7th last year, 8th in 2013, and 3rd in 2012, 11th in 2011, and 2nd in 2010. Westwood sits atop our proprietary ranking system, Who’s Hot as he absolutely dominated on the European Tour over the past several months. During that time he had a T5 at the Malaysian Open, T9 at the Omega Dubai Classic, and won the Thailand Open. Since coming over to the PGA Tour, Westwood has a T17 at Valspar, T12 at the WGC Cadillac, and a T25 at Honda. He currently ranks 22nd in Strokes Gained Tee-To-Green and 9th in Total Strokes Gained. It was truly a surprise that he missed the cut last week, but as we always preach, do not let one week’s performance discourage you from choosing a player if there is not something fundamentally wrong with them. It might actually prove beneficial to us, as a lot of people will write him off after his missed cut last week. (Cash game & GPP)

J.B Holmes– We recommended Holmes last week as one of our top value picks and he made us look really good with a victory. We preached that you needed to ignore his missed cut at the Arnold Palmer as it was a complete aberration and it paid off. Holmes has been playing lights out with a runner up at the WGC Cadillac, T22 at Northern Trust, T10 at Pebble Beach, and runner up at Farmers. Holmes currently ranks 9th in Strokes Gained Tee-To-Green, 24th in Total Strokes Gained, and 11thin Driving Distance. The only thing working against JB this week is his lack of tournament history, as he only has one appearance in which he took 25th in 2008. (Cash game & GPP)

Matt Kuchar– How could we not pick a guy who has three consecutive Top 10s at the Masters (5th last year, 8th in 2013, and 3rd in 2012)? Not sure how he can be considered a value play but his salary this week in the Draftking’s Millionaire Maker is 64% of Rory Mcilroy. Kuchar has been playing ok lately, but definitely not up to his standards with a 70th last week at Shell, T15 at Valero, ,T33 at Valspar, T23 at WGC Cadillac, T30 at WM Phoenix Open, and T2 at Humana.He currently ranks 17th in Strokes Gained Putting and 27th in Total Strokes Gained. We are not thrilled at how he played last week, but his price is so low compared to what he is capable of. (A solid GPP Play, but a better Cash game play)

 

Top Sleeper Picks:

 

Kevin Na – Despite three consecutive Top 10s, there still is not a lot of buzz around Kevin Na. That will not be the case in the Millionaire Maker this week as the early pricing release by Drafkings caused Na to be extremely underpriced. Our sportsbook odds vs. daily pricing tool shows that he is severely underpriced compared to where he ranks in the sportsbook odds. Because of that, we expect Na to be one of the most highly owned players on Draftkings this week. He currently ranks 25th in Strokes Gained Tee-To-Green, and 23rd in Par 4 Scoring. His tournament history includes a 59th in 2013 and 12th in 2012. We look for him to be in the Top 20 this week with a possibility of a Top 10. (Cash Game & GPP)

Ryan Palmer – How in the world can Ryan Palmer be considered a sleeper pick? Well this is obviously a tough field and Draftkings priced him at $6600 this week. He has one Top 10 in 4 career Masters, but we think tournament history is difficult as he is such a different player these past two years. He currently ranks 4th in Par 4 Scoring, 30th in Greens in Regulation, and 7th in Strokes Gained Tee to Green. His current form is T6 at Valero, T12 at WGC Cadillac, T25 at Honda, MC at Pebble Beach, T2 at WM Phoenix, and T10 at Humana. Very good current form from Mr. Palmer and based upon his dirt cheap price in the Millionaire Maker, he will be hard not to roster. (Cash Game & GPP)

Cameron Tringale– A guy who may be overlooked this week as he is making his first appearance at The Masters. Tringale is playing really well lately with a T5 at Shell, T40 at Valero, T17 at Valspar, and T38 at WGC Cadillac.. He is extremely cheap on Draftkings this week at $5,900 and allows you a player that could jump up into the Top 10 while saving money to spend on some stud players. (GPP)

As we mentioned above we want a Fantasy Golf Insider member to win the $1M prize on Draftkings and in order to win the Millionaire Maker event you are going to have to have six guys in the Top 10 along with one or two guys that have low ownership. Below is a list of those guys who we think who have the best chance of possibly sneaking into the Top 10 while either being underpriced or having low ownership in the Millionaire Maker event. Some of these are also, somewhat of contrarian plays so let us stress not to put these guys into your cash game lineups and that they are swing for the fences type of plays in an attempt to win $1M.

Chris Kirk– After playing horribly to start the season, Kirk showed a glimpse of the magic he had last year with an 8th place finish at Valero in his last tournament. Before that he had been dreadful this season. Last year in his first appearance at Augusta, Kirk took a respectably 20th. His cheap price of $6,800 will afford you the ability to get some real good players on the same team and people might be avoiding him because of his poor start to the season. We know he has the ability to shine as we saw that last season when he won the Deutsche Bank Championship.

Marc Leishman– Not too many people are going to touch Leishman this week because he has been playing lousy. He did miss the cut here last year, but showed the ability to succeed at Augusta with a 4th in 2013. This is the type of off the wall pick that might fuel a run at the Million -or- he might embarrassingly miss the cut, and blow up one of your lineups.

Kevin Stadler– Most people won’t even know Stadler is playing this week. He hasn’t played in months, because of an injury, but he is making his return this week. Stadler took 8th here last year.  Please monitor his status up until tee-off to make sure he does not withdraw.

Graeme Mcdowell– Anybody who pays attention to fantasy golf knows that Mcdowell has been playing horribly so far on the PGA Tour this year. In addition, his tournament history at Augusta is abysmal as well. So why do we mention him? He is a strictly contrarian play, and he does have the ability to win this tournament despite what he has shown here in the past and in his current form. This is the perfect swing for the fences play that might pay off.

Ben Martin– He is the definition of a swing for the fences type of player. He has 5 Top 10s in PGA events over the past two seasons and also missed the cut 17 times. His price-tag is extremely cheap at $5,700. Worth a shot.

As always best of luck to all of you, please let us know how you do.

Fantasy Golf Insider