Tournament Preview- AT&T Pebble Beach National Pro-Am

This week the PGA Tour takes us to legendary Pebble Beach for the AT&T Pebble Beach National Pro-Am. The field consists of 156 professionals and 156 amateurs. One professional is paired with one amateur. Each day, 52 2-man teams will play on one of the three courses. Then on the final day, those professionals and pro-amateur teams making the 54-hole cut will play on the Pebble Beach Golf Links.

The cut takes place at 54 holes with the low 60 scorers plus any ties. Players between 61st and 70th (and ties) will receive both official money and FedEx Cup points, as the cut for this tournament ensures the field is smaller than a standard tournament cut of 70. They are also credited as MDF (Made the cut, did not finish).

The three courses measurements are:

1. Pebble Beach Golf Links measures 6,816 yards, par 72
2. Spyglass Hill Golf Course is 6,953 yards long and is a par 72
3. Monterey Peninsula Country Club Shore course measures 6,867 and is par 71

Each of the three courses feature four par 5s.

All three of these courses are quite a bit less than the average length of all courses on the PGA Tour in 2015. Despite this fact, long ball hitters have had a lot of success in this tournament with Jimmy Walker winning last year, Dustin Johnson winning in 2009 and 2010, and Phil Mickelson winning in 2012, 2007, and 2005. This history combined with the fact that all three courses feature four Par 5s, leads us to believe that it is important to analyze closely Par 5 scoring and Par 5 Birdie or better %. Our own Jeff Bergerson conducted a study and wrote a two part article analyzing which statistical categories have the most impact on fantasy golf. It is an outstanding article and we recommend you check it out. Part I Do Statistics Really Matter in Fantasy Golf is posted now and Part II will be posted next week.

Walker’s win last year made it three wins in his first eight starts of 2013-14, though he nearly squandered a six-shot lead before a clinching par at No.18. Walker still led by five at the turn, but three bogeys on the back nine allowed Johnson and Jim Renner to make a run.
12 of the top 30 players in the current world rankings are in the field this weekend including Jim Furyk’s first appearance of 2015. (he didn’t even play in the fall). Furyk was one of the most consistent players throughout 2014 making the cut in all 21 events he played making 11 Top 10s and runner up four times. He however has not won a PGA event in almost 5 years, so keep that in mind for pick-a-winner formats. Also in the field is Dustin Johnson who will team up in the pro-am with his future father-in-law Wayne Gretzky. Who knows, maybe he will shoot another course record in the “Great One’s” presence.

Last weekend was very good as most of our recommended players played well. We recommended a balanced approach last week since there were so many high quality value plays and that strategy proved correct. Jordan Spieth and Justin Rose did not even make the cut, so avoiding them proved very beneficial.

Our top stud play last week was Jason Day who ended up winning, so that was obviously awesome!

Other stud picks included Jimmy Walker (T7) and Brandt Snedeker (T19).

Our value plays turned out mixed as Brooks Koepka made the cut, but disappointed with a (T41), Bill Haas turned out to be a decent play (T19), and so did Marc Leishman (T27). The only one who screwed us hard was Justin Thomas, who out of the blue, after playing so well lately missed the cut. That one hurt as he worked well in most formats including DFS where he his price did not reflect his recent performance.

Our sleepers were mixed bag with our top sleeper John Peterson being a dynamite sleeper pick (T27) and KJ Choi (T53) both making the cut. Noh (MC) and Fabian Gomez (MC) both disappointed, with Gomez missing the cut by one stroke. UGH.
Our fades were right on the money as we recommended staying away from Tiger, Mickelson, Luke Donald, and Dustin Johnson. All four missed the cut and cost those who did not heed our advice big time. Last week in The Daily Spin article written by Zach Turcotte, he discussed the strategy of avoiding paying a premium price for the highest four players on daily sites. Fantasy Golf Insider has definitely gone along with that strategy this season so far and it has paid off. None of the top priced players for tournaments this season have gone on to be victorious. This week however, we see Jimmy Walker as a guy you might possibly want to deviate from that strategy,depending on which site you are playing on for DFS and what his pricetag is. We will discuss Walker in depth later in this article.

No matter the tournament we put in the time and research to provide our members the absolute best information available anywhere and leave no stone unturned to make our members successful and profitable in season long and daily fantasy golf. As always, stick to solid lineup building, smart game selection, and disciplined bankroll management. See: How to win playing daily fantasy golf.

A key factor that we analyze every week is Tournament History. Check out our Tournament History page to see exactly who has had success in the past in this tournament. A few of the players that stand out as having good tournament history at the AT&T Pebble Beach Pro-Am include:

Aaron Baddely- Two Top 10s in last 4 appearances
Patrick Reed- Two straight Top 15s
Steven Bowditch- Top 20s in 3 of his past 4 appearances

For access to our Top picks, value picks, sleepers, fades, and more become a premium member.

 

We will continue to utilize the players from the European Tour as they are often overlooked and underpriced in DFS. We have made a small fortune with these players over the years and we will continue with that strategy.

Be sure to note that the following players have already withdrawn from the AT7T Pebble Beach National Pro-Am: Sang Moon Bae, Jamie Donaldson, Freddie Jacobsen, Nicholas Thompson, Gonzalo Fernandez-Castano. If we hear of others we will post it on our breaking news scroll bar.

Top Stud Picks-

 

Jimmy Walker- Last week we listed Jimmy as one of Top Stud Plays and he paid off for us yet again with a T7. He is one of the most dominant players on tour right now and absolutely owns the AT&T Pebble Beach National Pro-Am. Walker won this tournament last year, took third the year before, and 9th the two years prior to that. His entire game is sharp as he ranks 23rd in greens in regulation, 13th in strokes gained Tee-To-Green, 17th in Par 5 scoring, 15th in Par 5 Birdie or Better %, and 5th in Total Strokes Gained. We like Walker a lot this week in every single format, even daily where his price is extremely high.

 

Jason Day-We nailed Jason as our Top Stud play last week. Everything lined up plus he was due for a win so we went with it and were right. Day has two Top 10 finishes in five appearances here at the AT&T Pebble Beach, but had a dreadful 64th last year. We are more fond of Day in season long formats and one and done as opposed to DFS/Daily, where you will now have to pay an inflated price to have him coming off the victory. But if you like the juicy sleepers we have for you this week than you might have the cap space to have him on your roster in DFS this week. Either way, Day is really good and had a T17 at the Sony Open and a T3 at Hyundai Tournament of Champions before his win at Farmers. He ranks 12th in Total Strokes Gained, 17th in Strokes Gained Tee-To-Green, and 1st in Greens in Regulation. All of this adds up to a great player and another shot at a victory this week.

 

Jordan Spieth –We thought Spieth was going to start tearing it up after surging up the leaderboard with a 65 on the final day at the WM Phoenix Open. Unfortunately, Spieth’s momentum disappeared in Phoenix faster than Seahawks fans hopes at the 2 yard line. Spieth completely missed the cut at the Farmers Open which shocked everybody. The last two years however, Spieth has followed up his Farmers Insurance performance with a better one at the AT&T Pebble Beach Pro-Am (in 2013 missed the cut at the Farmers and placed 22nd at Pebble Beach and last year took 19th at Farmers and 4th at Pebble Beach). We believe Spieth will get to Pebble Beach a couple days earlier than expected and get the quirks ironed out and will be back in the Top 10 this week.

 

Ryan Palmer– Outside of Walker, probably the next hottest golfer going right now in the field is Ryan Palmer. In his last three outings he was T17 at the Sony Open, T10 at the Humana Challenge (which should have been better), and T2 at the WM Phoenix Open. In the fall he only played two events and had a T22 at the WGC HSBC and T8 at the BMW Masters on the European Tour. Ranking in the Top 10 in several statistical categories including scoring average, driving distance, and total Strokes Gained. The only thing Palmer does not have going for him this week is his track record in this tournament. Last year he took 32nd, missed the cut in 2013, 29th in 2012, 70th in 2010, and missed the cut in 2009 and 2008. We think Palmer has improved so much over the last year that we are going to recommend Palmer despite is tournament history. He ranks 17th in Par 5 scoring and 9th in Par 5 Birdie or Better %. Palmer should be good for a Top 10 and might have a chance to win it.

 

Top Value Picks-

 

Kevin Na– Warning-People with heart conditions should not take Na on their fantasy team. If however you have a strong heart, and can handle the ups and downs of Mr. Na, he might pay off nicely this week at the AT&T Pebble Beach Pro-Am. Na has been all over the board this year so far with a T26 at the WM Phoenix Open, T48 at the Humana Challenge, T64 at the Sony Open, T26 at the Nedbank on the European Tour, T20 at the WGC HSBC, and T2 at the CIMB classic. Na is not long off the tee ranking 204th in driving distance, but at Pebble, you do not need to be long. Na has played really well here the last three years taking 4th last year, 22nd in 2013, and 5th in 2012.

 

Ian Poulter– What is it with us and the European players? Well they are usually overlooked and commonly under-priced. Look at last week at the Farmers- Donaldson, Poulter, and Lowry were all underpriced in DFS and they all played well. Poulter has only played in this event one time in 2012 when he took 50th. However in his two tournaments this year on the PGA Tour, he ranks 5th in Par 5 Scoring and 5th in Par 5 Birdie or Better %. Plus he has been playing well on the European tour taking T21 at the DP World Championships, and 2nd at the Turkish airlines. The two appearances on the PGA Tour in 2015 have resulted in a T6 at the WGC-HSBC and last week T19 at the Farmers. If you fill out your roster with high quality players, who are under most people’s radars, and are underpriced you will do fine in all formats.

 

Alexander Levy– Every week more and more guys continue to trickle over from the European Tour. A few weeks ago Francesco Molinari, who has had great success so far on the PGA Tour this year, then Jamie Donaldson who has made two straight cuts, and then last week Justin Rose, Ian Poulter, and Shane Lowry. All except for Rose have made the cut and have outperformed their price each week. We steered clear of Rose and did not recommend him as we did not believe he would perform up to his price tag last week. We were very surprised to see other people in the industry recommend Rose last week as their top pick. That hurt. Alexander Levy was featured in our Crystal Ball for 2015 article as a player to watch. In October Levy won the Portugal Masters and then followed it up with a runner up in the BMW Masters. He then came over and played in WGC HSBC and took T14. Since then he has a T11 at the Turkish airlines, T26 at the DP World Championships, T21 at Nedbank in December, T20 in Abu Dhabi, MC at the Qatar Masters, and T29 at his most recent event at the Omega Dubai Classic. He is currently ranked as one of the highest players in our Who is Hot rankings. We would have liked it better if he was coming off his great performances in the fall, but we still like him considering his play the last 5 months and nobody will be on him this week because it is so hard to find fantasy golf information for the European Tour.

 

Top Sleepers-

 

Marcel Siem– Another European guy coming over for his first event bound to be overlooked. Siem was red hot in the fall with a T21 at the Portugal Masters then won the BMW Masters. He then came over and played in the WGC HSBC on the PGA Tour and finished T48 before heading back to the European Tour and finishing T8 in the Turkish Airlines, T39 in the DP World Championships, and 4th at the Nedbank in December. Since then he has missed the cut in the Qatar Masters and the Omega Dubai Classic, which will dissuade anybody who actually follows the European Tour. Last year Siem only played in a handful of PGA events, but had a T12 at the US Open. Siem has the ability to go high up the leaderboard, and would be a decent play in all formats including a great play for DFS Tournaments because he will not be highly owned.

 

Bryce Molder– Molder has not played well lately missing the cut last week at the Farmers, 70th at WM Phoenix Open, and a MC at Humana. He did however have a T42 at Shriners and a T3 at the Frys.com in the fall. Why we like him as a sleeper this week is his tournament history where he has three Top 10s in 9 appearances including a 10th last year and a 12th in 2013. Overall he has 4 Top 15s in the last five years. Those are really impressive finishes for such a mediocre player and we think there is something to it. Feel free to take a shot on Molder this week as we do not think many people will be picking him.

 

Sean O’ Hair– Over the past six years O’Hair has made the cut in this event each time and placed in the Top 35 five times. In addition to that he has played relatively well lately as well making the cut six times in the eight events he has played including last week at the Farmers Insurance Open. His most impressive outing was a T17 at The McGladrey Classic. O’Hair will be especially nice in daily this week as his price is low and he will be overlooked by many.

 

Greg Owen- Here is a guy that we have never recommended on Fantasy Golf Insider, but he can make the cut this weekend and give you a Top 30 if everything goes really well. Owen has actually had a very solid tournament history here with 3 Top 10s in 9 appearances. In his last five appearances Owens has made the cut with a 56 last year, 30 in 2013, 9th in 2012, 21st in 2010, and 39th in 2009. Last week at the Farmers, Owen finished T32. His other appearances in the 2015 season have produced a missed cut at Humana, missed cut at OHL Classic, T22 at Sanderson Farms, MC at Shriners and Frys.com. So as you can see, Owen is by far a slam dunk and probably only a good option for DFS tournaments. If you do roster him and he manages to take a 25th, you will do well because of all the cap space freed up.

 

Top Fades:

 

What in the world are we going to do without our automatic two fades, Woods and Mickelson this week at the AT&T Pebble Beach? We will attempt to replicate our 1.000 batting average last week with all four of our fades missing the cut.

 

Billy Horschel- Billy, Billy, Billy. The old Billy Baroo just isn’t working right now. Horschel missed the cut last week at the Farmers, T30 at WM Phoenix Open, T41 at Humana, and T22 (out of 34) at the Hyundai. Not exactly the form that he had when winning the last two events last season, including the Tour championship. He also does not have a good tournament history here having not played last year, 28th in 2013, 69th in 2012, and missing the cut the two years before that. We have not recommended Horschel yet this year as a player to pick yet this year and have been correct. He will be our top fade this week as we just don’t trust him.

 

Hunter Mahan– We are not sure if he is going to play as of the writing of this article, but either way we are going to fade him. His wife just gave birth to their son a few days ago. He has not been playing well lately and doesn’t seem real motivated. We have featured him as a Top fade several times now this year and it has been gold so we are going to continue to do so.

 

Good luck to all of you this week, we hope you continue to be profitable. Remember, be sure to let us know of your successes via email or Twitter. There may just be a t-shirt in it for you.