Thursday NFL Analysis – Week 5

Every once in a while we get a game on Thursday night where my ears perk up a bit. I am not sure that this is going to be a great football game by any stretch, but the matchup is one that is worth paying attention to whenever we two teams that have a lot of explosive offensive weapons, but neither of which manages to play a lot of defense. The Patriots, once thought of as a team that some analysts projected to have a chance to be undefeated this season, are now mired in a bit of a slump after a 2-2 start that very easily could have been 1-3. Not only are they struggling, but the teams that are putting up points against them have not necessarily been prolific on offense the rest of the season (although after last week, the Texans may very well be the real deal). The Pats are last in the league in defense right now and are playing at a historically bad level. Think I am exaggerating? Go ahead and check out this article about how poorly they have played through the first four games of the season. Currently, they are on pace to post numbers that would make them the worst defensive unit going back to 2006.

Tampa Bay has not been a lot better at slowing teams down. They crushed a miserable Bears team at home to start the season, but then allowed Case Keenum to have a career day in lighting them up for 356 passing yards and three touchdowns. Yes, they were a little banged up, but it was Case Keenum who very much returned back to Earth with another below average performance versus the Lions on Sunday. Tampa followed up the performance in Minnesota by allowing Eli Manning to light them up in Tampa Bay for 288/2 at home. This week, they travel to New England where for as bad as the Pats have been on defense, the offense has been almost good enough to offset it.

Tom Brady is a great play in all formats this week. He just seems to get better as he gets older. It is amazing to see the detail that goes into his preparation day after day and season after season. He’s so precise with everything he eats, nobody ever sees him leave the practice facility and he’s as fierce a competitor on the field as you are ever going to see. If he said today he would play anther five years until he was 45, I would not bat an eye. New England has some capable running backs, but they are not a ball control offense, nor can they afford to be. The pricing is tight this week on DK, but Brady is so good and the Pats have a projected point total of right around 30 so definitely get him onto some GPP teams and if you can squeeze him into cash, the upside is good enough to pay down in other spots if you want to look in a near sure thing as Brady has a 3x floor tonight.

I know that Tom Brady is a near guarantee this week to perform, but on DK, Jameis Winston is priced at only $6k and while I am not sure he has the same ceiling as Brady, he’s probably the better cash game play. Outside of the Bears game where he did not need to throw much in a blowout win, he posted 21.5 against the Vikes and 29.5 last week against the Giants. Given the fact that the Patriots are decent at stopping the run and historically bad against the pass, I think we green light Winston this week in all formats and let him go wild. The extra $2k that you will save will go a long way in cash games towards building a value laden roster, but both QB’s should be in the mix for your GPP rosters this week.

In late breaking news, I just learned that Rob Gronkowski is not expected to play tonight. It’s never a surprise that he makes the injury report and he misses time every year, but this is a pretty late update. Dwayne Allen is only $2,500 on DK which now seems like a nice value at tight end as the backup. The big players that this will boost will be James White at $4,900 who already saw 12 targets last week and figures to see a similar number in a more prominent role tonight. All three of the Patriots WRs get a boost here, too. Brandin Cooks probably gets a small bump, but his matchup was already set as was Chris Hogan. My guess is that Danny Amendola will get a boost as the possession receiver of the three. I’m not sure that I would use any of the three in cash games since Brady tends to spread the ball so much, but Amendola is the one that I would look at as the safest given his low price and reasonable floor with Gronk out.

One the Bucs side of the ball, Doug Martin is back this week, but I have no idea how much he will be worked back into the offense making its backfield an avoid for me. Mike Evans is my favorite play for the Bus tonight on offense. His price is pretty steep at $7,900, but I don’t see him getting less than 10 targets and Stephon Gilmore has been awful this season and will be the one defending him. Malcolm Butler is on DeSean Jackson which makes this is tricky matchup so while Jackson is a GPP option for his speed and explosive big play potential, I can never trust him enough to use him for cash. Adam Humphries, at just $3,300 of DK is a nice cash play this week to save some salary. He’s received 10 and 7 targets the last two games and has a soft matchup with Eric Rowe. Finally, I like Cameron Brate at the tight end spot as a cash game play for the week. Although he splits time with OJ Howard, he seems to be getting more playing time and has caught TD’s in back to back games.