Thursday NFL Analysis – Week 4

I thought that once the protests ended before the games last Sunday that things would settle down and the games would go off as we expected. However, much like Week 1, we learned that you can never truly count on anything going as planned when it comes to the NFL. After Week 2, when everything seemed to go off right on schedule, it was pretty easy to pick against the spread and the projections for individual players generally held up well. Last week was a slap to the face for those who forgot that teams that are underdogs at home can be a massive sucker bet to side against. Fortunately, my cash game team survived with a couple of late, miracle touchdowns to save the day, but it sure was not what I expected going in.

Before I leap into the content too much, I first want to express the irritation that Jeff and I both have over the recent changes at DraftKings. For those of you who are just now checking out the contests this week, you will notice a couple of things. First, the Sunday night game is not part of the main slate this week. Second, the rake has been bumped up for many of DK’s flagship GPP events. It was not at all surprising that this was met with an immediate negative backlash against DK and the high level employees from DK who made a mockery of trying to defend the changes. DK has decided that it is only reacting to a ‘trend’ that only they have noted among the industry. They also listed a reason for the change due to East Coast and European players (yes, they actually referenced European players) not being able to stay up late to see the outcome of the final game (although it seems like us American players had no issues with filling up contests for The Open this summer). The final reason, which was my favorite, was that they are ‘trying new things’.

If all of this sounds confusing or if you are not sure about what they are doing here, let me help to clear it up. The move to eliminate the Sunday night game is a simple profit grab, nothing more. By moving the Sunday night game into the current short slate of two games to add a third, DK is trying to increase the popularity of the short slate to make it just slightly less of a crap shoot than it already is. I’ve never been a fan of these ridiculous two game slates and now with the third, they are going to be slightly more appealing although my interest is still very small. With tons of overlap and even many duplicate lineups, the skill level is much lower as you decrease the number of games in the slate which over time, means the edge is a little lower. DK is banking on the fact that pulling one game won’t be noticed on the big slate and entries will remain the same, but that they will pick up a noticeable bump in entries on the short slate now that it’s gone from an unbearable two games up to three. Since most of my focus and that of the more recreational players is specifically on the Sunday games, this move is irksome to say the least. The worst part is that typically, the Sunday night game features two quality, high scoring type of teams that are very fantasy friendly. Please be sure to let the folks at DK know that you are not happy about the change and if it really bothers you, take your business to FanDuel or Fantasy Draft this week. I left my normal roll in play on DK this week, but this could certainly change if DK decides that this is the new normal.

Three weeks in and the Thursday night games have been all over the place. Not surprisingly, the first game of the season was a lot of fun with the Chiefs pulling off a dramatic upset over the suddenly defensively challenged Patriots. Week 2, things were ugly as I had anticipated with the Texans and Bengals slogging their way through a miserable and dull game. Then we had the game with the 49ers and Rams last week which went off the rails wild and was one of the most exciting games in recent years. While most Thursday night games will probably be closer to what we saw in Week 2 as opposed to Week 3, we need to keep Thursday night open as an option to take advantage of the opportunities that are out there as we had from Carlos Hyde and Todd Gurley a week ago.

This week, the Bears will travel to Lambeau Field to take on the Green Bay Packers fore the 195th time in a rivalry that is dead even at 94-94-6 where the Packers will have a chance to take the lead in the series for the first time since 1932. It’s an interesting game for each team as both seem to be at a crossroads of sorts. The Bears are clearly in a rebuilding phase which under Coach John Fox has made some progress this season after his team recorded a stunning 23-17 upset over the Pittsburgh Steelers last weekend and nearly beat the Falcons at home in Week 1. The Bears are in the midst of a tear down season where they will look to rebuild up front on each side of the ball while allowing for younger players like Tarik Cohen and Mitch Trubisky  (eventually) to get some time in the offense on what will mostly be a lost season. The Packers, on the other hand, are in the prime years of future Hall of Famer, Aaron Rodgers career. While they have a ‘win now’ type of mentality, they’ve done little to improve a struggling secondary and still do not have a true, between the tackles running back to lean on to control the ball.

As usual, my action on the game tonight is going to be limited. The Bears have done their best work at home this year and the only way they are going to win tonight is if it ends up ugly and the score remains low. If that is the case, the options are pretty limited. Mike Glennon is super cheap at $4,500 on DK this week so he may be tempting for cash games, but I am going to leave him alone. In other weeks, where we are limited by salary or other cheap options at QB, it might be worth taking a stab at a player like Glennon for the price, but there are too many other good punt options at the position this week with players who have far greater upside so if you want to play Glennon as a low owned GPP option, I am okay with that, but given the style of offense that the Bears run and their limitations at wideout, I would not use him this week.

At running back, the Bears have been a surprising committee this season with Jordan Howard splitting time with pass catching specialist, Tarik Cohen. Of these two, Cohen is the obvious play for cash games this week. The flow of the game will dictate the usage here and I expect the Bears to be playing from behind all night. Cohen has been targeted 25 times and caught 20 balls in his first three games as a pro. When the Bears get down tonight, expect more of the same. He should catch 4-7 balls and has shown an explosiveness in the open field that can lead to big plays. $5,500 is a nice price for a player that has a very high cash game floor.

At wide receiver, I wish I could give you guys a great option this week with the Packers struggling so much in the secondary and with Devon House set to miss the game tonight, but the Bears have no true #1 threat. Hell, they don’t even have a legit #2 threat type of receiver right now. Kendal Wright is someone to look at this week, but it is hard to use him in cash a week after he received zero targets. Now, game flow dictated that he might not see the ball much, but no targets at all is rough. If the Bears are passing the ball 40 times tonight, as I expect they will, Wright is the best GPP option to be the biggest recipient of the work so for me, he’s GPP only this week and the others I will be avoiding.

On the Green Bay side of the ball, Aaron Rodgers is always in play in any format in any week. However, this week, I am going to be avoiding Rodgers as his offensive line is banged up and likely down two starters with both David Bakhtiari and Bryan Bulaga expected to miss tonight’s game. While I still think Rodgers will have a nice night, this could limit the offense slightly which I would rather avoid. We have a situation where if I am going to pay up, I’ll just go ahead and grab Tom Brady or I will take the savings and drop down into the low $5k range. The Packers will be throwing the ball often, but more than likely they will be shorter passes, used to replicate a normal team’s run game.

Ty Montgomery has been good to us since taking over as the lead back in Green Bay last season. He’s also been one that we’ve been able to count on for points with his pass catching abilities. This week, his price has crept up to $7,500 and while a 22.5 point effort is definitely not out of the question, Monty has been squeezed out of the value range this week and maybe going forward. I have my eyes on other players who will get just as many opportunities this week for a better price and also a couple of true studs with better matchups.  Montgomery is a GPP play for me as opposed to cash this week.

At wideout this week, the Packers are always tempting for all formats. With Randall Cobb back in the mix this week, the Packers will be back at full strength. My favorite play in cash games of the group is Jordy Nelson who is always a big play threat any time he is on the field. He has three TDs in three games this season and barely played versus Atlanta or it could be even higher. Rodgers tends to spread the ball around well among his receivers so if you are going to play one in cash, it better be the one that finds the endzone with the most regularity. The Bears gave up plenty of yards to Mike Evans and Antonio Brown in recent weeks and Jordy has torched them before. Both Devante Adams and Randall Cobb would be GPP options as well.