The First Tee – Zoso Championship

This Week

The Zozo Championship is a new event this season, and is taking place on a course that most haven’t yet seen – Accordia Golf Narashino Country Club. Narashino was built in 1965 so it’s not a “new” course, but it’s new to us and there’s unfortunately not as much information as most weeks. This is a 78-man tourney with no cut so birdies are huge, and just a gentle reminder that it’s in Tokyo so make sure not to miss lock!

The Course

Narashino is a par-70 that plays at 7041 yards, and one of the interesting features here is that there are two greens on most holes; this is a quirk because (apparently) the golf courses have “hot weather” Bermuda greens and “cold weather” bentgrass greens (the PGA will incorporate both greens on the par-4 fourth but otherwise ). Another quirk is that the par-70 has ten par-4s, three par-5s and five par-3s, so it’s not the typical PGA par-70 where par-4 scoring is so key.

The three par-5s here (#6, #14 and #18) all play outside 550 yards, with the 14^th passing 600 yards – scoring holes, but don’t expect many eagles here. The par-3s are all below 200 yards and are very straight-forward, these are the holes where strong iron players will really separate themselves from the field. The par-4s have a pretty wide range in terms of yardage, with five of them playing above 480 yards(!) while the rest are below 405.

Off the tee, golfers will mostly be pulling irons from the bag given the fairways are very narrow and are all surrounded by thick trees. The rough is cut fairly low and there’s a bit of undulation in the fairways to roll out, but between the fairway width, trees, the odd water hazard (five of them) and some strong doglegs, the safe play will be irons on basically every hole. Naturally the longer hitters will have an advantage (think Gary Woodland), but the shorter hitters with supreme accuracy (think Collin Morikawa) should do quite well as well.

There aren’t many fairway bunkers here, but there are loads of interesting greenside bunkers thanks to the double greens. The greenside bunkers are deep and very irregularly-shaped and should pose a problem for errant approach shots. Those approach shots will be hit into smaller-sized bentgrass greens that don’t have a small amount of undulation and are multi-tiered; unfortunately there’s no information available on the speed of the greens.

Most approach shots will be in the 150+ buckets, so looking at the players who succeed with the wedges won’t be too helpful.

Comparable courses/events:

Colonial (Charles Schwab Invitational) – Very narrow fairways, very small bentgrass, and tight scoring should be similar to what’s seen at the Zozo this week. Also a par-70 with similar yardage as here, Colonial is all about iron play and keeping it in the fairway much like Narashino will be.

Hamilton G&CC (Canadian Open) – A par-70 that’s just below 7000 yards, Hamilton has small bentgrass greens and very narrow, tree-lined fairways. It’s a shorter setup overall, but the putting and play off the tee should be very similar at both courses.

STATS

The Strokes Gained stats to focus on in order (not including Tee to Green):

• Approach
• Off the Tee
• Putting
• Around the Green

Counting stats to focus on in order:

• Approach Shots: 150-175 Yards, 175-200 Yards
• Driving Accuracy %
• Par-3 Scoring
• Greens in Regulation %
• Proximity from the Sand (or Scrambling % if you want to go a bit more basic)

Top-Tier Golfers

Gary Woodland ($9500): On a course with less-than-driver off the tee, Woody is always a strong consideration thanks to his length and success when clubbing down; last year, Woodland ranked 19^th in SG: Off the Tee with an average distance of 296.5 yards, and 64.12% of yardage covered by his tee shot. He wasn’t the most accurate, hitting the fairway 62.44% of the time (95^th), but he sees a marked improvement without his driver.

Woodland is a strong player with his irons on approach, as he gained the 20^th-most strokes last season and got to the green in regulation (a nice) 69% of the time, good for 28^th on tour. He really excelled from 150-175 yards out, ranking sixth relative to par and 31^st in proximity, and outside of 200 yards there was nobody with better proximity – he was a sticking it a full 6’ closer than the average Tour golfer.

The major bugaboo as always is putting: 130^th in SG: Putting, 139^th in One-Putt % and 129^th in Three-Putt Avoidance. He was a miserable 181^st when putting inside 10’ (85%), and he cost himself a ton of bogeys; he made putts when they counted though, as Woodland was fifth in converting birdie or better putts – a 35.06% clip.

Woodland is nails on par-5s, strong on par-4s and passable (at least scoring-wise) on par-3s, although he ranks much better when looking at BoB% than looking at actual scoring. Woodland isn’t bogey-averse thanks to the bad putter, so while his 3.06 par-3 scoring average could be a real negative, he should be able to get to the greens effectively and it’ll just be up to the flatstick.

Collin Morikawa ($9100): Mr. Effective off the tee so far, Morikawa has yet to miss a cut and in twelve events played has a win, a second and three more top-25s. He finished T14 at the Canadian Open (a comp. course) which is always nice as well.

Statistically, Morikawa sits:

• 6^th in Driving Accuracy % / 29^th in SG: OTT
• 2^nd in Greens in Regulation % / 4^th in SG: APP
• 19^th in Approaches from 150-175 / 1^st in Approaches from 175-200
• Par-3 Scoring Average of 2.98

Those numbers are all from a small sample (32 rounds), but are a good representation of the style of golf Morikawa plays. That style should be very effective this week, so load him up.

 

Value Golfer (below $8000)

Caution: this week’s article was written before prices were released so the “value” may end up cresting the $8000 range; made assumptions based on past pricing.

Emiliano Grillo ($7500): Consistently one of the best on tour at positioning his ball off the tee, Grillo last year sat 27^th in Driving Accuracy % (68.13%) and 23^rd in Distance from the Center of the Fairway which helped him gain the 20^th-most strokes off the tee even as he struggled with his distance (115^th on all drives). That play should keep him in great spots – and out of the many trouble areas – which will let him use his fantastic approach game to get to the green; Grillo ranked third in SG: APP last year and got to the 34^th-most greens in regulation.

The Argentinian’s proximity from the key buckets (150-175, 175-200) was fantastic, ranking seventh and 32^nd respectively – although his scores relative to par didn’t pop, given Grillo’s poor putting. That poor putting will definitely lead to some bogeys and missed birdies this week, as Grillo lost a massive 0.633 strokes putting last season which was a huge drop-off from the previous season (although that good putting season is now a huge anomaly).

Grillo loses strokes around the green as well, and has poor scrambling numbers thanks to the bad play ARG combined with the bad putting. That’s a large part of why his scoring numbers are so poor relative to his Birdie or Better numbers: 30^th in Par-3 BoB% (15.71%) but 70^th in Par-3 Scoring (3.04) and 133^rd in Par-4 BoB% but 139^th in Par-4 Scoring – the par-4 numbers are both horrific, though. Expect him to take advantage of the par-3s this week and use his steady play to make good numbers on the par-5s, even without good distance off the tee.

Grillo finished 19^th at Colonial and even in a down year had five top-25s and only five missed cuts.

Abraham Ancer ($6700): Ancer is basically “Grillo Lite”, as he struggles with distance but is supremely accurate. He gained the 10^th-most strokes off the tee last season thanks to ranking 10^th in driving accuracy – and 82^nd in all drives distance – and even in a year where his approach game took a step back from the year previous, he still managed 18 made cuts (to nine misses) which included eight top-25s at a solo second at the Northern Trust. Ancer finished T58 at Colonial which isn’t an ideal number, but a made cut at a comparable course is always a plus.

Although he doesn’t pop in every key stat for this week, there are some big plusses in Ancer’s play:

• 3^rd in Proximity from 150-175 (9^th relative to par)
• 10^th in Accuracy %
• 8^th in Par-4 Scoring / 23^rd in Par-4 BoB%
• 50^th in Scrambling %
• 24^th in overall Proximity / 17^th in Proximity from the Rough

 

You can follow me on Twitter @adalyfrey and good luck this week!