The First Tee – Wyndham Championship

This week at the Wyndham Championship is the last shot for players on the FedEx Cup/top-125 bubble and with it coming after a major, the field is always interesting for what amounts to a birdie-fest. Over the past five years, the winning score has come in the range of -14 (Patrick Reed) to -22 (Henrik Stenson), with the average winner in that time shooting -18 and the cut sitting at -3 in three of the five years but below par in all five.

The Course

This is typically one of the easiest courses on the Tour which makes for a bit of a let-down after a few weeks of boring golf architecture, but it’s a great week for DraftKings with all the birdies – with a birdie average of 3.92 (per round per golfer), this is one of the highest-scoring week for DFS (no-cuts excluded).

Sedgefield Country Club, where the Wyndham takes place, is a par-70 that sits a little above 7,100 yards with only three par-4s that play above 450 yards – all of which play above par, and are some of the only “challenging” holes on the course. The par-3s are either short and easy (174, 175 with an average score of ~2.9) or long and tough relative to the course (223, 235 with an average score around 3.05), and the par-5s are extremely gettable as both play below 550 yards and saw a combined 46 eagles last year.

For an easy course, the fairways are actually quite narrow at an average of 26 yards across at the 275-marker, and 25 across at the 300-yard marker, and those averages are brought up considerably by the wider 2^nd hole. The fairways are very loosely lined with trees, but they shouldn’t be much of a factor as they’re relatively spread out, but the real hazard off the tee will be the bunkers; Sedgefield is one of the toughest courses for golfers hitting approaches out of bunkers, adding an average of ~0.6 shots, so it’s imperative to stay off the beach this week.

With the narrow fairways, golfers tend to stick to woods or driving irons off the tee to make sure the ball stays in play –the distance off the tee is in the 278-282 yard range on an annual basis; this sets up approach shots in the 150+ range. Golfers will be shooting into smaller-than-average greens that run quick, with some plateaus and undulation; the Champion Bermuda is pretty typical of a North Carolina course in the summer, so firm and fast with lots of slope. This is one of the tougher courses to putt on outside 10’.

 

The Stats

The Strokes Gained stats to focus on in order (not including Tee to Green):

• Approach
• Putting
• Off the Tee
• Around-the-Green

Counting stats to focus on in order:

• Par-4 Birdie or Better %
• Approach Shots 150-200 Yards (this is relative to who you’re targeting. This range is for the average hitter off the tee, adjust to 125-175 for longer players off the tee)
• Scrambling
• Par-4 Efficiency 400-450 Yards
• Distance from Center of the Fairway / Driving Accuracy

Top-Tier Golfer

Joaquin Niemann ($9700): With 40 measured rounds, Niemann finally gets ranked properly by the PGA, and his stats are pretty eye-popping:

• 14^th in P4 Efficiency, 400-450
• 15^th in SG: Tee to Green
• 5^th in SG: Approach / 2^nd in Greens in Regulation
• 1^st in Par-4 Birdie or Better % / 2^nd in overall Birdie or Better %

The not-even-a-rookie is tearing up the PGA in his 12 starts so far, with four top-10s and six top-25s to only four missed cuts, but most important is his incredible scoring rate. He makes a great play for DFS purposes thanks to his birdie rate (4.53/round), and a key difference between Niemann and some other rookies is that Niemann only turned pro in April which means skipping all the easier events – he didn’t play the Barracuda or swing season.

He has a great proximity to the hole from farther out, but Niemann is also long off the tee (295.8 in All Drives Distance) and will often just have a wedge in; from 125-150 yards out, he ranks 1^st in both proximity (18’5”) and scoring (26-under par in 93 attempts).

 

Other golfers to consider:

Rafa Cabrera-Bello ($10100)

Pros: Great on approach shots between 150-200 yards, he hasn’t lit the tour on fire in terms of BoB%, but he’s got a strong eagle rate and his 3.57 birdie average isn’t horrible even on a scoring course. Very good at getting to the green in regulation (26^th) and accurate off the tee (28^th). Coming off a T10 with a great Sunday at the PGA, and a T17 at Firestone.

Cons: Short off the tee – although not as important thanks to not needing a driver, RCB struggles outside 200 yards and really struggles if he misses the fairway. Rafa’s main concern will be on the greens, as he ranks outside the top-100 in SG: Putting, and he’s been just awful outside 10’.

Value Golfer (below $8000)

Brendan Steele ($7600): He hasn’t played the course since 2013 when he finished T11 – he also finished T66 in 2012, his only other attempt here – and he’s coming off a missed cut at the PGA, but Steele sets up nicely this week with his style of play.

He’s a longer hitter typically which means he can dial it back with long irons or woods, which should improve his driving accuracy a touch (currently 130^th at only 59%), but even missing the fairway as often as he does, Steele still hits the green at a great rate of 70.34% (13^th). His proximity to the pin isn’t anything amazing to look at if he’s outside 175 yards, but between 125-175 he ranks 34^th and 38^th.

The main concern this week will be the play around and on the greens, as he ranks 195^th in SG: ARG and 176^th in SG: Putting. There’s not much to be said about this beyond hoping he catches some magic in the putter, because the guy ranks 32^nd in SG: Tee to Green and is very affordable. He is a very solid player on par-4s specifically, especially between 400-450 yards, and his birdie rate should make him a solid play for DFS that goes very overlooked – think in the 4-7% range.

 

Chris Kirk ($7500)

Pros: Only one missed cut in four attempts here, and he hasn’t missed a cut (excluding the team event) since April 1^st at the Houston Open. That includes finishes of T6, T11 and T23 as highlights, but Kirk is one of the best players on Tour at approach – 13^th in SG: APP. He ranks horribly in SG: OTT thanks to a lack of distance, but that should be mitigated at a less-than-driver track.

Cons: Putting is always a concern with Kirk, but he’s actually been above average in both 3-putt avoidance and one-putt percentage, he just struggles in close at times. He won’t be putting up eagles unless he’s holing an approach shot, as his lack of distance kills his par-5 potential, and he’s remarkably bad on par-3s given how strong his iron play usually is.

You can follow me on Twitter @adalyfrey and good luck this week!