The First Tee – WGC Mexico & Puerto Rico Open

This Week

The WGC Mexico Championship has more golfers than normal – transitioning away from a 64-man field, there should be around 70 golfers this year and going forward – but remains a no-cut, four-day event for everyone in the field. There’s a premium on birdie-making this week as opposed to finish position, so don’t be afraid to roster the highly-volatile players like Mickelson.

THE COURSE

This week’s event takes place at Club de Golf Chapultepec, a par-71 course that’s listed at 7,330 yards –  although it probably plays about 15% shorter thanks to the elevation in Mexico. There are six par-4s at 406 yards or below, although there are also three par-4s above 497 yards; the three par-5s are listed at 625, 622 and 575 yards and all play under par, with 17 eagles made last year (there were also eight eagles made on the par-4s). One of the weirder things about this course is the par-3s, as a lot of the field has struggled with judging the distances accurately the two years this event has taken place.

The fairways here should be easy to hit but can vary wildly based on any wind – 62% were hit in 2017 with only 56% last year – and this course had the ninth-longest driving distance on average last year (305.9). One of the reasons that average isn’t even higher is that most golfers will club down to driving irons or woods off the tee, because they’ll get the added distance from the elevation, while having better accuracy; the fairways are fairly narrow here (26-yards across at the 300-yard marker), with trees lining the course and water and a couple native areas that can cause a ton of trouble.

Yet again, the course this week will feature kikuyu grasses (as seen at Riviera and Torrey Pines), so highlighting golfers’ SG: Approach from those two events can go a long way to finding success in Mexico. There’s a huge correlation between approach and finish position here, and you’ll want to focus on golfers that are strong with wedges – approach shots below 150 yards. Much like last week, proximity from the rough is a decent stat to consider, as the stickiness of kikuyu can sometimes play like the rough at easier courses.

The greens here are fast and tough, with lots of undulation and sloping, and are about average size. They’re poa annua – also like Torrey and Riviera – and will even out the field slightly, although players playing later in the day will have to deal with bumpier greens. Missing the greens here is a big no-no, as the greenside bunkers are very tough and steep.

STATS

The Strokes Gained stats to focus on in order (not including Tee to Green):

• Approach
• Putting (on poa)
• Off-the-Tee
• Around the Green

Counting stats to focus on in order:

• Approach Shots: 50-150 Yards
• Birdie or Better %
• Proximity to the Hole from the Rough
• Par-5 Scoring

Top-Tier Golfers

Jon Rahm ($10,700): He’s finished T3 and T12 here and has always taken advantage of the par-5 15^th at this course. Rahm is a very strong player on kikuyu/poa courses, and has the length off the tee to put up very strong birdie & eagle numbers – this year he’s hit 25.93% which is good for 26^th, without playing the easy swing season events. His short irons aren’t as good as you’d like here, but he’s shown a good understanding of how to get around at this course so he’s worth the risk.

Francesco Molinari ($8,100): Last year, Molinari was the fourth-most efficient player on shots from 50-125 yards away, and he’s finished T25 and T20 the two years here. Last year, Moli was 8^th in SG: OTT, 10^th in SG: Approach, and second in SG:T2G; those ranks are about typical for him, but his putter is what typically sinks him. At his price point, he’s as close to a lock button play as possible.

Sergio Garcia ($8,000): He piled up 18 birdies last week (T7) although he finished T37, which is a great number for a no-cut event, as mentioned earlier. He finished T12 and T7 in his two shots here, and has great form (minus a DQ) with a T3 and T7 on the European Tour before playing Riviera last week. He only played 34 measured rounds last year so his stats need a grain of salt, but historically he’s a strong par-4 and -5 birdie maker, and can be very long off the tee.

 

Value Golfer (below $8000)

Abraham Ancer ($7,400): It’s a homecoming event for the Mexican-born Ancer, who only managed a T52 here last year but has been much, much better all-around over the past 52 weeks. He’s coming off a T44 and two straight missed cuts which isn’t ideal, but he’s deadly accurate off the tee (70.09%) and is 8-under par from 50-125 yards out. He’s a very strong par-4 player and has made birdie or better on 23.96% of holes. He’s 6^th-best in making birdie from the rough, -0.140 to par.

Kevin Na ($6,900): After some injury concerns after a WD, Na has played the WMPO (finishing T60) and played last week at the Genesis (T33), so any concerns should be alleviated at this point. People are still scared of that WD so he should come in at low ownership, but Na offers a lot of upside even after a T52 here last year: he’s a strong approach player, especially with wedges, and last year converted the 26^th-most birdies, 22.35%. He’s a good scorer with a good price, so don’t be scared off.

Puerto Rico Open

Full disclosure: I’m not playing this event, because there’s no ShotTracker data.

Quick breakdown: there was no event in 2018 thanks to the Hurricane, but it’s the same course as previously, the Coco Beach Golf & CC Championship. It’s a par-72 that’s listed at 7506 yards and can be majorly impacted by weather, but plays very easy in good conditions – D.A. Points shot a -20 to win it in 2017, and -2 wasn’t good enough to make the weekend that year.

There are a lot of elevation changes (just like Mexico!) so this course does play shorter than the 7506 yards listed, and accuracy is more important than distance here. The greens here are large and paspalum and play rather straight-forward once on, but missing the greens is especially punitive because it takes away a birdie try on ridiculously easy greens.

Focus on: short approaches, accuracy, GIR, par-5 scoring, overall BoB%.

Non-obvious golfers to consider: Cameron Tringale ($7100), Chris Kirk ($9100), Adam Svensson ($7400), Hank Lebioda ($6800)

More-obvious golfers to consider: Peter Uihlein ($11,200), Dom Bozzelli ($8,500),

 

You can follow me on Twitter @adalyfrey and good luck this week!