The First Tee – WGC Mexico Championship

This Week

The WGC in Mexico is a small field, no-cut event that features 72 golfers and a winning score expected in the mid-to-high teens. As with all no-cut events, put more emphasis on birdie-making than anything else and don’t be afraid to roster the volatile golfers.

THE COURSE

The WGC-Mexico Championship is played at the Club de Golf Chapultepec, which is a par-71 course that plays much shorter than its official yardage (7355 yards) due to playing at elevation; take about 10-15% off the yardage because the ball flies here. The three par-5s are listed long at 625, 632 and 575 yards, but with the yardage adjustment they’re fairly easy – last year saw 13 eagles made combined; the next-easiest hole is the opener, which is a driveable par-4 that actually saw 10 eagles last year and averaged -.310 to par. Chapultepec has six par-4s that play at 406 yards or shorter (which when adjusted for is wildly short), four of which play below par. One of the great equalizers here are the par-3s, as they all average well above par as the distances are hard to judge, and water can also come into play.

Long hitters tend to find success here – Dustin Johnson has won it twice and Phil Mickelson won it in 2018 by hitting BOMBS – because they can club down to irons and still hit it a mile off the tee; the average distance last year was 303.6 yards, with most golfers choosing to leave driver in the bag. The fairways are narrow though, so driving it well is crucial, as the course is surrounded by trees and has some tight native areas off the rough.

Like two of the past few weeks, Chapultepec features kikuyu grass, so Riviera and Torrey Pines are both strong comparison courses (see below). That means that yet again, proximity from the rough is a good stat to consider; the other approach stat to look at will be approach shots in the 50-125-yard range, because basically every approach shot outside of par-5s will be with a wedge.

The other familiar characteristic at this course is the greens, which are poa annua (just like Riv and Torrey!). The greens themselves are around average size but feature a lot of undulation, and they play quickly; like most poa greens, that means a lot of 3-putting and poor putting conversions, especially later in the day as the greens get bumpier. Scrambling is also quite tough here, especially from the sand – in the three years the event’s taken place here, it’s been the second-toughest, 18^th-toughest, and third-toughest in terms of proximity from the sand. The greenside bunkers are very steep, and are set up very similarly to Riviera.

 

Comparable courses/events:

Riviera (Genesis Open) – Obvious comparable if you read the four preceding paragraphs. Grass and greens are the same, the bunkering is comparable, and the leaderboards have a ton of overlap.

Augusta (The Masters) – Torrey Pines would also fit here, but Augusta tends to reward the strong drivers of the ball in the same way that Chapultepec does.

 

STATS

The Strokes Gained stats to focus on in order (not including Tee to Green):

• Approach
• Off the Tee
• Putting
• Around the Green

Counting stats to focus on in order:

• Birdie or Better %
• Driving Distance
• Approach Shots: 50-125 Yards
• Proximity to the Hole from the Rough
• Par-3 Scoring

 

Top-Tier Golfers

Gary Woodland ($8300)

Form: In the three events Woodland’s played in 2020, he’s finished T7 (at the no-cut Tournament of Champions), MC (at the Farmers) and T40 at the WMPO. That form’s not impressive at all, so there’s definitely some concern; last year when Woodland finished T17 in Mexico, his form heading into the event was 2-80-T9-T7 which is miles better. The poor form explains the reduced price tag this week.

History & Comp. History: In the three years Woodland has played here, he’s finished T38, T50 and last year finished T17. That course history isn’t ideal – this is a no-cut event, after all – but birdie-wise, he picked up 20 (2019), 10 and two eagles (2018), and 17 and an eagle (2017) so the scoring is there. At Augusta, Woodland’s finished T33 and missed two cuts (not great), and he’s finished T55 in his one time at Riviera.

Stats (2019): Gary sat 19^th and 20^th in SG: Off the Tee and SG: Approach respectively, which worked out to 16^th Tee to Green. His play from 50-125 yards wasn’t ideal (76^th in proximity, 91^st relative to pay) but he hit 69.05% of greens and scored on 25% of holes (third-best). His putting was awful (130^th in SG: Putting, 129^th in 3-putt avoidance) but at a course where everyone struggles to putt, that should even out.

L16 Rolling Stats: His last 16 don’t pop out in the biggest way when looking at raw stats – he’s 31^st in the field in SG: Tee to Green – but Gary’s scoring remains elite, as he’s seventh in eagles (.25) and sixth in birdies (4.375). He also ranks eighth, seventh and ninth in driving distance, driving accuracy and greens in regulation % respectively.

 

Dustin Johnson ($11000)

Form: DJ’s form had been atrocious relative to his talent and price tag before finishing T10 last week, as he finished T32 at Pebble Beach and T7 at the Tournament of Champions; he did finish second at the Saudi International between Pebble and the ToC. Last year when DJ won the WGC Mexico, his form was actually very similar: a win in Saudi Arabia, a T45 at Pebble, and a T9 at Riviera.

History & Comp. History: He’s won here twice out of the three times the event’s been played here, and finished T7 between his wins; he’s shot below par in every round he’s played here, and broken 70 in 11 of 12. DJ also has tremendous success at Riviera (nine top-10s in 13 events played) and has four top-10s at Augusta.

Stats (2019): Last year, Johnson sat eighth in SG: Tee to Green with his usual dominant play off the tee – long and accurate enough – while his irons suffered a bit, getting to only 66.98% of greens in regulation. His approaches from in tight (50-125) were the worst they’ve been in years, but he still managed to score on 23.57% of holes (T17). His putting is solid on poa, and he tends to find success on kikuyu, so playing at a course he’s succeeded at should help his game.

L16 Rolling Stats: DJ’s kept his distance even as the rest of his game hasn’t been ideal, as he’s 11^th in that category relative to the field; that’s part of why he’s gained the 15^th-most strokes off the tee, which remains Dustin’s bread and butter. Unfortunately the rest of his game is pretty flawed: 53^rd in SG: Tee to Green, 53^rd in GIR% and 52^nd in birdies (although first in eagles).

Honourable mention: Tommy Fleetwood ($9200)

 

Value Golfer (below $8000)

Scottie Scheffler ($7100)

Form: Although he missed the cut at both the Waste Management and the Farmers, Scheffler finished solo third at the American Express, and last week finished T30 at the Genesis. Those two missed cuts were his first two missed cuts since August 11^th (on the Korn Ferry Tour), as Scheffler ripped the swing season apart with five top-28 finishes in six events played (including a T7, T3 and T5).

History & Comp. History: At the comp. courses, Scheffler has his T30 at the Genesis that he picked up last week although he missed that cut at Riviera as an amateur, and he’s never played Augusta. Due to his status on the PGA, this is also the first time he’ll be playing the WGC Mexico.

Stats (2019): At time of writing, Scheffler wasn’t confirmed in the field so he’s not yet added on the Rolling Stats page. Instead of using his 2019 stats (14 measured rounds), I’m using his 2020 stats here (28 rounds) and not listing any rolling stats; it includes the easy swing season, but should give a good idea of Scheffler’s strengths and weaknesses.

Scheffler’s play off the tee has been very strong – T13 with .633 strokes gained – thanks mostly to a ton of distance (311.3 on average). His iron play has been above-average, sitting 49^th in SG: Approach but hitting 71.9% of greens in regulation (23^rd), and his approach shots between 50-125 yards have been very strong both in actual proximity (28^th) and relative to par (30^th). Scheffler’s main issue has been putting, but that can wash out on tough poa greens.

Byeong Hun An ($7400)

Form: Having taken the past two weeks off, An’s last tournament played was at the Waste Management Phoenix Open where he finished T9. Prior to that, he had a mediocre T68 at the Farmers and a missed cut at the Amex. An did play well during the swing season, with a third (Sanderson), a T6 (CJ Cup), and a T8 (Zozo). He finished T14 at the WGC-HSBC, another small-field no-cut event.

History & Comp. History: With two attempts at this course, Benny An has yet to finish better than T45 (which he did last year), but his scoring has been very strong: 14 birdies and an eagle in his first time out in 2017, and last year he picked up 18 birdies and an eagle. He’s only played Riviera once (2017) where he finished T55, and in the three times he’s played the Masters he’s finished T33-MC-MC (2017-2015).

Stats (2019): Last year, Benny An ranked a fantastic seventh(!) in SG: Tee to Green, which was boosted a bit by his play around the green (first, +0.631 SG). He’s a long hitter (15^th) who excels from the rough, and last year he ranked 50^th in overall Birdie or Better percentage. The main issue is the putting, but it’s a major issue: 182^nd in SG: Putting last year, losing 0.583 strokes per round.

L16 Rolling Stats: Byeong Hun An sits 16^th in SG: Tee to Green over the past 16 rounds which is a great number relative to his price tag, although part of that good number is due to great play around the greens. An does rank 17^th in SG: Approach though, and 28^th in GIR%; his distance off the tee remains strong (10^th) and that’s part of how he’s scored so well, ranking sixth in birdies (4.375).

Honourable mention: Jazz Janewattananond ($6700)

You can follow me on Twitter @adalyfrey and good luck this week!