The First Tee – WGC Mexico

Moving away from the carnage of the Honda Classic – and another win by JT – we have a WGC event in Mexico this week, at Club Chapultepec in Naucalpan. It’s only the second time this event has been run there, and it’s a 64-man, no-cut event with most of the top golfers playing there with a few of the elites choosing to skip it. Last year, food poisoning got the best of a couple players, so sticking to Twitter ahead of the even can give a leg up.

With it being a no-cut event, targeting strong scoring golfers has a greater emphasis than most weeks, with no concern about missing out on the last 36 holes.

THE COURSE

Club de Golf Chapultepec is a par-71 course listed at 7,330 yards with a slope of 133 and a course rating of 74, but it plays about 15% shorter thanks to the high elevation of Naucalpan. It’s a very easy course from a scoring perspective, with six of the eleven par-4s sitting below 406 yards – all but one of those six scored below par last year – and although the three par-5s are listed between 575 yards and 625 yards, they also averaged under par with a combined 22 eagles made. The other very easy hole is the 316-yard first hole (par 4) that had a scoring average of -0.283 last year with nine eagles.

Although the fairways are rather narrow on average from 300+ yards – averaging 26 yards across from 300-325, 23 yards from 325+ – the fairways are fairly easy to hit, because golfers can club down with the added distance thanks to the elevation. There are very few fairway bunkers to be worried about, the course is tree-lined (about 10-15 yards off the fairway), and water only comes into play on three holes; there are native areas that someone would have to be incredibly errant to find their way to (c.c. Phil Mickelson), but in general, play off the tee (both distance and accuracy) didn’t have a big impact on finish position last year.

After the tee shot, golfers will be hitting out of the sticky kikuyu that we saw at the Genesis Open and Torrey Pines, so looking at players that gained strokes on approach at both of those events as well as in general is a strong consideration. Because there’s not as much emphasis on play off the tee, there’s a much stronger correlation between SG: Approach and finish position, and with the short distances left after the tee shots, golfers who shoot well with a wedge in hand (50-125) will be the ones to look at. The rough isn’t tall, but rather very thick which will hurt control; much like Genesis and Torrey, proximity from the rough is a good way to account for the stickiness of kikuyu, even on shots from the fairway because of how the ball sits in the fairway.

Around the greens are some very deep greenside bunkers, so missing greens can be quite penal. For avoiding bogeys, play around the greens will be impactful as always, but as mentioned this is a no-cut event so scoring is much more important. The poa annua greens are tough to putt on, as they’re fast and have a ton of undulation and lots of sloping.

Last year’s winner, Dustin Johnson, shot -14 on his way to winning, and 44 golfers shot even or better. Expect about the same this year, as the only other time competitive golf was played on this course was back in 2014 for the TransAmerican Power Products CRV Mexico Open and the winning score was -17 – but that was before Chapulpetec changed the 8^th from a par-5 to a par-4.

 

STATS

The Strokes Gained stats to focus on in order (not including Tee to Green):

• Approach
• Off the Tee
• Putting
• Around the Green

Counting stats to focus on in order:

• Birdie or Better %
• Approach from 50-125 Yards
• Greens in Regulation
• Par-4 Scoring
• Proximity to the Hole from the Rough

The Golfers

Dustin Johnson ($11900): There are no golfers better suited for this course than DJ, as shown by his win last year; Johnson is an absolute wrecking ball at courses with this set-up (kikuyu and poa), and with his propensity to score, he is definitely worth paying top dollar for in a no-cut event. Beyond his win last year, DJ has finishes at the Genesis – a corollary course – of T16 (’18), 1^st (’17), two 2nds (’14, ’15), a 3^rd (’10) and two 4ths (’16, ’12). Suffice it to say, DJ can play here.

Because he only has ten measured rounds in 2018, here are some of his 2017 highlights:

• 1^st SG: Tee to Green
• 5^th SG: Approach
• T9th Greens in Regulation
• T15th in proximity from 50-125 yards, T13 with a score of -39 RTP in 179 attempts
• 1^st in Rough Proximity
• 5^th in SG: Putting on Poa over his last 50 rounds

He’ll be expensive, but he’s worth it, and it’s incredibly hard to make a lineup starting with DJ. Given the depth of European/Asian players this week that most PGA DFSers will ignore, this should bring Johnson’s overall ownership down as most builds will try to ignore the sub-7k range.

Alternate top-tier options:

Thomas Pieters ($8300) – Pieters had a great finish here last year (T5), and has played strong golf on the kikuyu and poa courses: his T5 last year, his T2 at the Genesis last year as well as T68 this year, and his win at Riviera as an NCAA player as well. Pieters is a bomber that is absolutely nails with his irons, sitting 2^nd in Strokes Gained Approach last season and 60^th in that category this season with only eight measured rounds. He crushed Birdie or Better % in his small sample (20 rounds) last season, making BoB on 21.53% of his holes, and should be able to pick up a ton of DK points his twelve times through the par-5s.

As always, the knock on Pieters is his mental game – when it goes sideways, he goes sideways, as shown by his +7 final round at Riviera – but in a no-cut event, he should be able to keep that focused a bit more; Pieters has typically played WGC events fairly well, including a 4^th-place finish at Bridgestone.

 

Values (Below $8000)

Xander Schauffele ($7800): It’s a tough week for value given that it’s a WGC, but Xander Schauffele pops off the page in strong fashion; although he hasn’t played this course before, with it being such a new course there’s not too much to be garnered from course history beyond maybe fit, and Xander’s T9 two weeks ago at Riviera showed he can perform on the sticky kikuyu. At the Genesis, Xander was 17^th in SG: Approach (0.836 strokes gained) and 12^th in SG: Putting (1.143) which bodes well for him, and he had actually picked up the third-most birdies that week as well.

On the year, Xander’s statistical merits don’t stand out in any particular fashion, but he’s dominated par-5s and has an overall BoB% of 22.96%, good for 46^th. He’s a long hitter that will get to club down, which should mean more found fairways, and he excels at getting out of trouble. When looking at his past rounds on poa, Xander pops in a big way, so take a big spoonful of salt when looking at his year-to-date or even last season statistics.

Other values:

Gary Woodland ($7600): It’s always scary recommending Gary Woodland, especially when his price tag is this low, but especially this week where strong poa putters should do well. That being said, Woodland has been excellent at the Farmers (kikuyu/poa), with five top-27 finishes and no missed cuts in eight attempts, and he finished T38 here last year.

Gary is a strong scoring golfer: 16^th in Par-4 BoB%, 21^st in Par-5 BoB%, 20^th overall, and has already picked up eight eagles through his 20 rounds this season with a birdie average of 4.23 (T21). He’s a stud from tee-to-green, sits 3^rd in GIR%, and sits -1 RTP from the rough (T24th). He’ll definitely see some ownership at this price tag, it’s just a question of can he figure out the flat stick – Gary is typically an even worse putter on poa greens.

Good luck this week! You can follow me on Twitter @adalyfrey if you have any questions, and my DMs are always open.