The First Tee – WGC HSBC Championship by Adam Daly

It’s yet another week in Asia without ShotTracker data and no-cut, with a watered-down field compared to events past (with the WD of Louis Oosthuizen and the addition of Lucas Glover, the Strength of Field is the worst it’s been in five years, per @VC606 on Twitter). One of the few nice things about this week is that the tournament’s been played here for the past four years, so it’s not a new course AND there’s some course history to look at.

This Week

THE COURSE

The HSBC Championship takes place at Sheshan International Golf Club, a shorter par-72 listed at 7,266 yards with short par-4s – the longest is 487 yards while the average sits at 417 yards. If weather doesn’t impact the week the way the CJ Cup was impacted, this should be a birdie-fest: three of the four past winners shot -20 or birdie.

Part of what makes this course a birdie-fest is the ease of hitting the greens, and the ability to bomb it off the tee. The fairways are undulating and allow for a lot of kick-out on tee shots, meaning long rolling drives; the concern off the tee are some well-placed fairway bunkers, and the odd creek or quarry will come into play with water being a factor on 11 holes. With the fairways being slightly narrow, hitting them will have a real impact on a golfer’s ability to get to the green on approach, with the rough being long but not particularly thick, and the course is designed in a way to make second shots trickier off the fairway. The fairways and rough are seashore paspalum grass.

On approach, golfers will be aiming for smaller-than-average greens that are still hit at an above-average rate thanks to the receptiveness of the bentgrass greens. Missing the greens can really hurt a golfer here, with the run-off areas around the greens leading to some penal areas. Looking for golfers that hit particularly well from 150-175 yards out will be a good spot to start, and 125-150 for the longer hitters from the tees.

One caveat: if the weather gets wet as it has it years past, it completely changes the tone and tenor of this tournament. Wedge play and scrambling will get boosted while distance takes a back seat – see Russell Knox’s win in 2016 as the perfect example of this. Scrambling will still be impactful (as noted in the paragraph above).

STATS

The Strokes Gained stats to focus on in order (not including Tee to Green):

• Approach
• Off-The-Tee
• Around the Green
• Putting

Counting stats to focus on in order:

• Birdie or Better %
• Approach Shots: 150-175 Yards
• Scrambling %
• Driving Distance
• Par-4 Scoring

The Golfers

Hideki Matsuyama ($11400): One of two past champions at the top of the price board, last year’s winner projects very well to hit his salary value and win the tournament again this week. Although his putting remains a sore spot, Hideki excels from tee to green (5^th, 1.369 strokes gained) thanks to a tremendous driving distance (26^th) and approach game (7^th, 0.645 strokes gained).

From this week’s key distances, 125-150 and 150-175 yards, Hideki ranked 19^th and 5^th respectively in 2017, leaving himself less than 25’ to the pin from both spots. That approach play helped him find a nice amount of greens in regulation (69%, 16^th) and was a key part of his stellar Birdie or Better % – 24.71%, 3^rd. Hideki was elite on par-5s, leading the PGA in both P5 Scoring as well as P5 BoB which will be impactful on a par-72, and he was no slouch on par-4s either (4^th/18^th).

Matsuyama performs very well in stronger fields: he showed up in three of the four WGC events last year – match play is garbage so that can get thrown out – winning twice and finishing T25 in Mexico. He also finished no worse than T14 in all four majors, including a T2 at the U.S. Open at Erin Hills.

Values:

Wesley Bryan ($7300): Wes Bryan makes an interesting value play thanks to his mid-range play, top-21 in both 125-150 and 150-175 yards out last season. He finished the year 26^th in SG: Approach, and although he struggled off the tee, he should be able to boost his driving distance if the weather stays dry. He was above average around the green – 49^th in scrambling, 36^th in sand save, 36^th in strokes gained – and although his overall SG: Putting number isn’t great (45^th), he was 8^th in one-putt percentage and 2^nd in overall putting average.

Kyle Stanley ($7500): Stanley makes an appearance as a value in back-to-back weeks, with two top-21 finishes in the swing season so far, including an impressive -2 last week on Jeju Island. Stanley last season was tops from 125-150 and 16^th from 150-175, and although he’s a shorter hitter he’s still above average (66^th). He’s nails on getting to the green in regulation, is deadly accurate off the tee, it’s just his putting that will be a question mark.

Good luck this week! You can follow me on Twitter @adalyfrey if you have any questions, and my DMs are always open.