The First Tee – WGC HSBC Championship

A WGC event in Asia! Early lock! No cut! Small field! Get excited!

This Week

THE COURSE

Sheshan International G.C. is the host course for the HSBC Championship and has been over the past 14 years – minus one year in 2012 – so course history can actually be considered, as opposed to last week at the CJ Cup. Scores at the HSBC tend to be pretty low, with scores ranging from a weather-affected -11 (Watson, 2015) to -24 (DJ, 2014); last year, Justin Rose won it with a -14.

The course is about an average length par-72 at 7,266 yards, with five of the par-4s sitting above 450 yards but four par-4s at or below 401 yards. Last year, every par-4 was above par except for three of the short holes; scoring on the par-4s is a key, but three of the par-5s are easy and are where most of the field will have to make up some scores. The par-5s sit at 550, 603 (averaged above par), 563 and 538, and only saw a combined 16 eagles last year to a whopping 40 double bogeys.

Golfers can get a lot of distance off the tee, as the paspalum fairways are around average width but offer lots of kick-out on tee shots which means long rolling drives but tough ball placement. While there are ginkgo trees, creeks, quarries and fairway bunkers to contend with, the rough here is long but thin which means sitting in the first cut won’t be as punitive as it otherwise could be. Golfers can club down if needed and try to use the fairway undulations to get added distance, but the bombers will have a distinct advantage here.

Greens get hit here at an above-average rate, even with the greens being slightly smaller than PGA courses, as the bentgrass greens get over-watered and tend to be extremely receptive. There are some run-off areas and sloping away from the pin, but in general golfers will be on the green in regulation here but will face tricky putts. Missing the green is where the real damage comes, as the greenside bunkers are deep and for whatever reason golfers tend to struggle putting here so missing the green in reg only compounds the issue.

STATS

The Strokes Gained stats to focus on in order (not including Tee to Green):

• Approach
• Off-The-Tee
• Putting
• Around the Green

Counting stats to focus on in order:

• Birdie or Better %
• Approach Shots: 150-175 Yards
• Scrambling %
• Par-4 Scoring
• Par-5 Birdie or Better %

Top-Tier Golfer

Jason Day ($10300)

Pros: Led the PGA last year in SG: Putting and ranked 5^th in SG: Around the Green, which were both factors in him sitting 19^th in Scrambling; his putter is also a big factor in his BoB% ranks of 66^th/10^th/23^rd on par-3/4/5 respectively, as he converted birdie putts at a 34.9% clip last year. He’s one of the best all-around scorers on -4s and -5s, and finished T11 here in his only time at the event. He’s long off the tee as well, which is always important in birdie-making, and from 150-175 yards out he was T19 relative to par. Finished T5 at the CJ Cup last week.

Cons: Day’s iron play last year was horrendous, hitting only 65.99% of greens in regulation (113^th) and losing 0.66 strokes on approach per round (129^th.) His poor approach may be partly due to how often he found himself in the rough – 42% – and his proximity of 47’1” on approach shots from the rough (160^th.) He’ll really need to see an improvement there to give himself opportunities to shine with the putter.

 

Tommy Fleetwood ($9500)

Pros: Fresh off a T9 at the British Masters and a T2 at Dunhill Links, Fleetwood finished T20 here last year in his only crack at it. Was 3^rd in Approach shots from 150-175 out, 14^th in SG: T2G, and led the PGA in par-5 Birdie or Better % last year; he ranked 5^th overall in BoB and excelled on both par-4s and -5s. He’s long off the tee, strong with his irons, and is priced probably 600-700 too low this week.

Cons: Having only the one attempt here isn’t ideal, but another big concern is Tommy’s scrambling – he ranks 148^th having converted just 56.14% of par saves, which is more due to his play around the greens than his putter. He does hit a good number of greens in reg (69.35%) but misses here could be costly. He’s not extremely accurate off the tee (63.65%), although that’s mostly just a stretch to find a negative.

OTHER: Rafa Cabrera-Bello ($8900)

 

Value Golfer (below $8000)

Matt Wallace ($6700):

Pros: In 2018, Wallace has picked up three(!) wins on the Euro tour this year, and is coming off a T16 at the British Masters. On the Euro Tour, he’s an even 4.00 on par-4s, and averages 4.13 birdies per round/0.23 eagles per round (8^th); he’s been strong off the tee – 42^nd in SG, 0.535 per round – thanks to being a longer hitter, and has been one of the better putters on that Tour this season.

Cons: His statistics on the ET aren’t perfect, hitting only 67.4% of greens in regulation (153^rd) and he’s lagging in SG: Approach in a big way. As always, it’s especially tough to judge how Euro Tour golfers will do in these events (beyond just looking at scoring average where Wallace is 49^th) thanks to much different courses, and softer competition.

 

Kyle Stanley ($7600):

Pros: Has performed well in no-cut events in the past, and finished T5 here last year. In the last five weeks he picked up a T13 and T15 at the CIMB and Tour Championship, and the back half of his year was a big improvement over the start; he picked up two runner-up finishes in the latter half of the year, at Memorial and Bridgestone. Stanley’s very accurate off the tee, hit a whopping 71.58% of GIR (4^th) last year, and had strong proximity from 125-200 yards, quite the strong range. He’s a very strong scorer on par-4s and had an overall BoB% of 21.53%.

Cons: He’s not the same player he was last season when he finished T5 here, and he’s coming off a 66^th at the CJ Cup last week. His putting and play around the greens will always be a concern, as he ranked 97^th and 112^th in SG: ARG and Putting respectively last season, and he’s a shorter player off the tee which means his par-5 scoring isn’t fantastic.

You can follow me on Twitter @adalyfrey and good luck this week!