The First Tee- WGC FedEx St Jude

Formerly the WGC Bridgestone, the WGC FedEx St. Jude Invitational takes place at the familiar TPC Southwind in Memphis, which used to host the St. Jude Classic but has now stepped up to the bright lights of the WGC. This course typically doesn’t see the quality of golfer that a WGC brings, and until now it’s always been hosted as a cut event, so expect lower scores than the -10 to -13 that previous St. Jude winners finished with.

The Course

After the excitement of Royal Portrush, TPC Southwind is back to the incredibly basic and boring PGA Tour designs: easy fairways and tame rough, water hazards the only defense of the course, no great test of irons, and the greens are fast Bermuda. It’s basically TPC Sawgrass, but without the allure of the Florida weather and the iconic 17^th.

Listed at 7238 yards as a par-70, there aren’t many scoring holes here – the two par-5s are easy and are both short (530 and 554 yards) and play below par, but beyond those two only three other holes played below par last year. 2017 was basically the same, with the two par-5s and four holes below par, and a course average of +0.035. Par-4 Scoring is a big factor this week given the setup, and long iron play is important as seven of the 12 par-4s play outside 450 yards and two of the par-3s are 196 or longer.

The typical approach dispersion here will be in the 150-200 yard range – as always, adjust that if you’re looking at rostering golfers much shorter or longer than average – and most approach shots should be simple enough given the ease of the fairways. The fairways are above average in terms of width (~29 yards across) and are only loosely lined with trees and thin rough, so wayward tee shots shouldn’t present too much hassle unless they get wet. Distance is preferred to accuracy off the tee, and the naturally-longer hitters in the field will be able to pull woods or driving irons to position the ball better while still hitting it far.

It is important to note how much water the course has, with the possibility of a bad tee shot getting wet existing on nine of 18 holes! Tough to plan for, but just a warning.

On approach, golfers will be looking into small Bermuda greens that should be firm and fast, and they’ve got lots of undulation. This course usually rewards players that succeed from tee to green more than most weeks, so putting shouldn’t have much weight here. Scrambling is also not much of a factor, as missing the greens doesn’t offer much trouble, with shallow greenside bunkers and no real danger areas outside of water hazards.

Comparable courses/events:

TPC Sawgrass (THE PLAYERS) – Fast Bermuda greens, TPC layout, an island green par-3.

East Lake Golf Club (Tour Championship) – Longer par-70, hosts a no-cut with similar scoring. Hot weather, Bermuda greens.

Waialae Country Club (Sony Open) – Par-70, Bermuda greens with lots of undulation, and rewards bombers.

STATS

The Strokes Gained stats to focus on in order (not including Tee to Green):

• Approach
• Off-the-Tee
• Putting
• Around the Green

Counting stats to focus on in order:

• Approach Shots: 150-200+ Yards
• Driving Distance (All Drives)
• Par-4 Scoring
• Par-4 Efficiency 450-500 Yards
• Par-5 Birdie or Better %

Top-Tier Golfers

Dustin Johnson ($11400): He’s played this course five times and in those five has finishes of 1, 5, T24, T10 and 1, and although his form recently hasn’t been fantastic, he’s still fantastic statistically and tends to play well at WGCs – he’s got six wins at WGCs over his career, including the Mexico Championship earlier this year.

• 3^rd in SG: OTT / 5^th in Driving Distance (All Drives)
• 16^th in SG: Approach / 36^th in Greens in Regulation
• 1^st in Par-4 450-500 Yards / -18 relative to par on 177 approach shots between 150-200 yards
• 98 Par-4 Scoring Average / 18^th in overall Birdie or Better %

His recent form will probably keep him from being too chalky even with the incredible history, but it’s early in the week so that could yet change.

Justin Thomas ($10700): Like DJ, Thomas is having a “bad” year on Tour by his standards, but a bad year has still spit out five top-10 finishes in 15 events (a solo second at Genesis his best) and 10 top-25 finishes overall. Part of that bad year is from a wrist injury when a tree ran into his wrist, but coming off a T11 at the Open at a 9^th in Scotland should demonstrate that he’s fine now.

JT has no history here at all and should slip through the cracks slightly because of that fact. His game projects very well though, as he’s dominant (2^nd) from tee to green and scores at will – perfect for DFS at a no-cut event. His birdie average of 4.55/round is second on Tour, he has the best overall BoB%, and he ranks T4/1 in Par-4/5 Scoring respectively.

The main concern with JT this week and this season on the whole has been his putting, which is normally a stronger part of his game than his 170^th ranking would presume. He’s so strong off the tee and on approach thanks to his distance, but his putting has led to more bogeys than normal and his putting inside 10’ is a full 1.5% below average at 86.25% (172^nd).

Others: Bryson DeChambeau ($8800), Patrick Cantlay ($9800)

 

Value Golfer (below $8000)

Matthew Wolff ($7500): The rookie has yet to play here but has been so impressive in his short career, with one missed cut in five events played which includes a win at the 3M Open. His price tag here is too short at a no-cut event given his proclivity to score, as he’s made birdie or better on 24.84% of his holes so far and has a par-4 scoring average of 3.94; it’s important to remember he’s played some very easy courses so that’s a slanted number (it’s also not officially ranked as Wolff hasn’t played enough events to count in the rankings), but that’s still a great number no matter how it’s sliced.

Wolff is a bomber off the tee although his accuracy has left something to be desired so far, but he’s followed that up by hitting 72.55% of greens and as long as his accuracy keeps him on the dry parts of the course, the rough won’t present any issues on approach.

His putting has been poor so far, but the Oklahoma product is more used to Bermuda surfaces so should feel right at home on the warm-weather Tennessee greens.

Keith Mitchell ($6500): Mitchell is always a better player on Bermuda, as shown with his win at the Honda Classic, so this week should suit him well with similar greens; he also made the cut at the PLAYERS and finished T16 at Waialae, so his play on comparable courses has been solid. He’s played here only once (last year) but picked up a T37 with three rounds under par.

His form recently has been bad, missing the cut in four of his last six PGA events (he finished T3 in a Korn Ferry Tour event), but the extra two days off from Northern Ireland will probably be a good thing. Mitchell is a bomber (12^th in All Drive Distance and 6^th in SG: OTT) that scores well thanks to his length, ranking 12^th on P4 450-500 and making birdie or better on par-4s at an 18.84% clip (28^th). He ranks 36^th in overall BoB% (22.93%) but 5^th in Holes per Eagle, which is a great sign at a course where there are two holes where eagle’s a possibility.

Others: Corey Conners ($6300), Max Homa ($6400)

 

You can follow me on Twitter @adalyfrey and good luck this week!