The First Tee – WGC Bridgestone

This is the last year for the WGC Bridgestone in Akron, as the event moves to Memphis next year with all the schedule & venue changes the Tour has made for 2019. The WGC Bridgestone is a no-cut event with ~75 players (officially 78, but that can change), so lineups in large contests like the $5 650k GTD will need to differentiate to be unique; there’s also nothing wrong with eating chalk and tying for first, so don’t let ownership be too large a factor this week.

The Course

For the last time, Bridgestone will take place at Firestone C.C. (South), a par-70 that plays at 7400 yards on the nose and doesn’t see much scoring. Dustin Johnson’s -6 in 2016 is an outlier, with the winner typically coming in the low-to-mid double digits, although Hideki Matsuyama and Adam Scott have both hit the -16 or better mark. Last year – which was a high-scoring event – only six holes played below par.

With only two par-5s, eagles are extremely rare here, especially with the 16^th playing at 667 yards; although it was the 2^nd-easiest hole last year, it’s typically one of the harder par-5s golfers will see, and in the past five years it’s played as the 12^th-easiest hole on the course on average. There are only five par-4s that sit below 450-yards, and three of the four par-3s are at 200-yards or above, so length is very important (either off the tee or having strong mid-irons).

Off the tee, golfers are looking at very narrow fairways that will mostly play straight, with some doglegging, and the fairways are lined with trees. The fairway bunkers that are on the course aren’t much of a challenge if a balls ends up there, but missing the fairway can be very costly with some tough rough – and ending up in the trees is even more costly. With the length of the course, golfers will really have to poke the ball down, but the one factor that could help that is that the fairways have a lot of slope and typically play firm; the ball should roll out quite a bit as long as the fairway is hit. (Note: as always, this is weather dependent – if there’s a lot of rain, it’ll soften the fairways and lose some of the roll out)

Firestone is a touch below average in terms of greens hit in regulation – usually around 60% – thanks to needing mid-irons on most approach shots. The bentgrass greens are actually larger than the average course (~7600 sq. ft.) but they’re quick (13’ on the stimp) and complex, with lots of undulation, and golfers won’t be able to land them softly in with the average approach shot outside 175-yards. There’s water near the greens on a few holes but the relatively easy greenside bunkers shouldn’t offer too much resistance.

The Stats

The Strokes Gained stats to focus on in order (not including Tee to Green – THIS SHOULD BE WEIGHTED HIGHER THAN NORMAL):

• Approach
• Off-The-Tee
• Putting
• Around the Green

Counting stats to focus on in order:

• Bogey Avoidance
• Long Approach (over 175 yards) – this will have to be an amalgamation of the 175-200 and >200 statistics.
• Par-4 Efficiency 450-500 Yards
• Carry Distance
• Distance from Edge of the Fairway

 

Top-Tier Golfer

Dustin Johnson ($11700) – Coming off a walkaway victory at Glen Abbey, the world number one has shown yet again what makes him the world number one, just one week after missing the cut at the Open. On the season, DJ has three wins and nine top-10s – including a runner-up and a third place finish – in 14 events, and sets up well for the WGC Bridgestone; in his last 12 rounds at this course, he’s had eight rounds below par, and he won here in 2016. Although he only has five top-25s at Firestone, the DJ of the past few years is night & day from the DJ at the start of the decade, so it’s safe to just look at recent history instead.

Statistically, DJ is worth every bit of his insane price tag:

• 1^st from Tee to Green
• 1^st SG: Off the Tee / 2^nd in Driving Distance (All Drives)
• 8^th SG: Approach / 17^th in Greens in Regulation
• 17-under par on approaches between 175-200 (1^st) / 27-under par on approaches outside 200 yards (5^th)
• 1^st in every scoring category EXCEPT par-3 Birdie or Better %, where he’s 2^nd.

The only areas that he could use some improvement is his play around the greens, and maybe his one-putt percentage. Maybe.

As last week’s winner and the highest salary, there’s a possibility he goes under-owned relative to his skillset, because that tends to happen; DFS players don’t like paying up and they don’t like picking golfers to go back-to-back.

 

Other golfers to consider:

Justin Thomas ($8800)

Pros:  Was 3^rd in SG: T2G here last year, and is 4^th in that category overall this season. Very long hitter which is needed here, and he’s 2^nd from 175-200/69^th (nice) outside 200 yards. He’s 7^th in SG: Approach and has hit 68.8% of GIR, has been a decent putter, and is an elite scoring golfer – 25% BoB – which is key for a no-cut event.

Cons: EXTREME CHALK ALERT based on his salary. Hasn’t had great finishes here – T28 and T33 – and is coming off a missed cut at the Open. Can’t find a fairway to save his life, hitting fairways only 57% of the time which ranks him 149^th.

 

Tiger Woods ($10800)

Pros: 15 events played (not including a WD in 2014), 13 top-10s, and just the eight wins – no big deal for the Big Cat. Coming off a great start at Carnoustie that did just enough to get him into this field, and a T4 at the National prior to that. 3^rd in SG: Approach, 4^th in SG: Around the Green, and his putting has come a long, long way from where it was earlier this way to rank him 56^th.

Cons: He’s 7-over par in approaches from 175-225 yards (134 attempts) and his SG: Approach numbers are a bit skewed by the bad positions he’s found himself in off the tee; his 66.53% greens in regulation number is only good for 96^th on Tour and he’s been awful when hitting approach shots out of the rough. He’s missed the fairway 44% of the time which could be a big factor this week. Probable chalk based on course history & recent form.

Value Golfer (below $8000)

Kevin Chappell ($7300): Although he’s a poor putter and always will be, Chappell has found success at Firestone thanks to his strong game from tee to green, picking up a T13 and T3 in his only two times here. He’s had a middling year on Tour with six missed cuts (out of 18 events), but he’s grabbed four top-10s and is coming off a T6 at Carnoustie.

The length of Firestone helps Chappell in a big way, as he ranks 10^th in All Drive Driving Distance with an average of 300.9 yards, and he’s gained 30.6 strokes Off the Tee in 44 measured rounds (0.696) which doesn’t include a strong showing across the pond. While his accuracy off the tee isn’t fantastic, his play out of the rough when approaching the green has been strong, just +3 in the 142 attempts out of the rough with an average proximity to the hole of 43’; his overall GIR percentage isn’t fantastic either at just 67.06%, but he ranks 40^th in SG: Approach.

His putting will be a concern as mentioned, but Chappell performs better on bentgrass (or poa) than on Bermuda, which will be a marginal help. He’s 164^th in SG: Putting but is 33^rd at putting for birdie or better, hitting 32% of those putts. His overall BoB% of 22.13% is 39^th overall, and for a longer hitter he’s not great at par-5 scoring, but his 19.24% on par-4s sets up very well for a par-70 course.

 

Emiliano Grillo ($7100)

Pros: Deadly accurate off the tee, ranking 9^th in both Driving Accuracy and Distance from Edge of the Fairway. Strong on approach (23^rd SG: App) and hitting a ton of greens (70.1%), Grillo is great with mid-to-long irons: 45 under par outside 200 yards (14^th), and 7 under par between 175-200 yards out. Better at par-3s (2^nd) and -4s (18^th) than par-5s, which is the perfect fit for a par-70 course.

Cons: Hasn’t posted a score below par in two shots here, finishing T14 (good!) and T50 (not good!). Horrible around the greens, and is coming off a missed cut at Carnoustie where his putting regressed to what was expected of him coming into the year; Grillo has always been a bad putter, but currently ranks 14^th in SG: Putting. Very short hitter relative to the bombers in this field.

You can follow me on Twitter @adalyfrey and good luck this week!