The First Tee – Wells Fargo Championship by Adam Daly

PGA DFS is back! Congratulations this week to our own Pari (@HitTheHighDraw) for hitting on Cam Smith/Jonas Blixt outright this past week, and to the whole team for their great work on European Tour DFS. Without further ado, the First Tee for the Wells Fargo:

Pro Results

Pro Results – Takeaways

Not much to glean from the Pros’ play at Valero beyond the usual:

• Don’t overexpose yourself – Saahil’s high ownership was 100%, only used 23 players, and ended up with 0/150 6/6 lineups. Ouch. FlavorFlav and jetblackx both ended up with golfers above 50% that missed the cut, but F.F. had a great week in the high-dollar entries.
• Play higher-dollar entries. Former First Tee writer jrozzinri took 3^rd in the $1500 Country Club (thanks to his 42% Kevin Chappell), but had no other top-25 finishes.

This Week

The Tour is stopping in at a new course for the Wells Fargo Championship – Eagle Point Golf Club – as the regular course, Quail Hollow, is this year’s home of the PGA Championship. The event has a stronger field than the last few events, with Dustin Johnson returning from his back injury and six of the top-20 OWGR-ranked golfers teeing off.

The Course

Eagle Point is a Tom Fazio-designed par-72 that plays at 7,396* yards and uses the natural Wilmington landscape to make a beautiful tree-lined course with many hazards in play. Six holes bring water into play around the green – including three of the four par-3s and two of the four par-5s – so sticking iron shots will be a key.

*7,396 is from the official scorecard from the Wells Fargo media guide – the PGA Tour has it officially listed at 7,259 yards. The par-4 1^st was lengthened by 60 yards and the par-4 8^th was lengthened by 42 yards.

Being a Fazio design, Eagle Point features lots of elevation changes in the fairways that will lead to some tough lies for all golfers, putting even more of a premium on golfers that excel on their approach shots. The fairways are also expected to be firm which should allow for lots of roll in the fairways, which means hitting fairway targets will be tougher than normal but also adds distance off the tee.

On the note about distance, there are some longer holes that reward long hitters this week: the first par-5 4^th hole plays at 640 yards, and is wide open for bombers to try and use their distance as an advantage. Although there’s a fairway bunker left and ravine right, and greenside bunkers to contend with once approaching the green, long hitters will have a good chance at birdie that the shorter hitters won’t.

Beyond the 4^th, there are six par-4s that play over 440 yards along with the other three par-5s, for a total of ten holes that will need longer tee shots. The 7^th will also reward long hitters, as it’s a driveable par-4 that sits at a measly 313 yards – expect to see a handful of eagles here this week, and scoring overall to be well under par.

The aforementioned greens are Bentgrass , slightly larger than average, and a large portion are tiered, with some false fronts and sloping to collection areas to deal with. The speed of the greens hasn’t been publically released yet, but look for an update here (or on Twitter) as soon as it is – the greens are expected to be quick, however. Last year’s tournament at Quail Hollow was played at a stimpmeter of 13’, so expect a number in that range this week.

The Strokes Gained stats to focus on in order (not including Tee to Green):

• Approach
• Off-The-Tee
• Around the Green
• Putting

Counting stats to focus on in order:

• Carry Distance
• Greens in Regulation %
• Birdie or Better %
• Par-5 Scoring
• Approaches from 150-175 Yards

The Event

With this being the first time at Eagle Point, course history can be thrown completely out the window.

The Golfers

The Core

Jon Rahm ($11000): Although the Spaniard finds himself as the second highest-priced golfer this week after Dustin Johnson, he will most likely be the chalkiest golfer this week – he’s a full $2000 below a DJ that’s coming off injury, and has the second best form of the “elite” tier after Phil Mickelson. Rahm is second to only DJ in Strokes Gained: Tee to Green, and currently sits 11^th in Carry Distance (299.0 yards) which shows just how long he can hit it; because of his distance, Rahm is a stud on par-5s (T16 in Par-5 Scoring, T3 in Par-5 Eagles). It’s not just the rookie’s game off the tee that sets him up so well here, but Rahm is very efficient with an iron in his hand: 9^th in SG: Approach, and from that key 150-175 yard range, he’s hit 70.24% of greens in regulation (34^th). He comes with a hefty price and the bitter taste of chalk, but has massive win upside this week.

Harold Varner III ($6300): To afford a player like Jon Rahm, it’s necessary to squeeze in one of the cheaper players with upside, and Varner fits that to a tee. Although he’s not currently the longest hitter on Tour, Varner sits T45 in Carry Distance and in the past has been known for his distance. The “Dab King” averages 3.74 birdies and converts birdie or better on 16.03% of approach shots between 150-175 yards. Statistically he won’t jump off the page, but at his price tag and low ownership, he could easily find himself in a top-30 finish. He missed the cut last week in team play, but before that made five in a row including a T23 at the Shell Houston Open.

J.B. Holmes ($8000): Holmes is another golfer that’s typically been long off the tee throughout his career, and is currently sitting with the longest Carry Distance at a whopping 305.7 (overall distance of 300.3, good for 26^th) which will be a big factor here as mentioned. The PGA’s version of the Ginger Hammer (apologies to Roger Goodell) has made eight of nine cuts this season, and is coming into the week off a T5 in the team play last week. He’s excellent from Tee to Green (23^rd), sits 33^rd in holes per eagle (four total eagles on the year), and is 54^th in proximity to the hole from 150-175 yards. He’s better on par-4s than on -3s and -5s which isn’t ideal on a course with only ten par-4s, but his overall Birdie or Better percentage of 23.15% is ideal for DraftKings scoring.

 

The Fade

Just a small note here – I play one lineup, so every week I’m fading the full field minus six, just by virtue of only using one lineup. The Fade of the Week is thus chosen for expected value vs. expected ownership, NOT because they’re necessarily good or bad plays.

Dustin Johnson ($13000): This is one of the bolder fades to make this season, because DJ fits every aspect needed to succeed here – without rattling off his stats, he’s long, he scores, and he knows how to win. The reason to fade him here is purely based on his salary, and NOT the fact that he missed the Masters with a back injury, because that will just help drive his ownership down and scare people off to the point where DJ will be available at disgustingly low ownership. He makes a perfect GPP play for this reason, but there’s not a lot to love at the bottom of the price list to offset that price tag.

 

You can follow me on Twitter @adalyfrey, and if there’s something you’d like to see change in this column my DMs are open! Good luck this week