The First Tee – Wells Fargo Championship

After hosting the PGA Championship – and me! thanks to FantasyDraft – last season, the Wells Fargo Championship (WFC) returns to Quail Hollow in Charlotte, North Carolina and brings with it a very stacked field that includes Tiger Woods. In all, 14 of the top-25 golfers in the world will be playing this week, a quick tune-up before the “fifth major” next week.

The Course

After the re-design by Tom Fazio ahead of hosting the PGA, the course looked vastly different from previous years and ended up being the toughest test on tour in 2017 – at an average of +2.468 over par, it was a full half-shot tougher than Augusta, which was second-toughest; seven of the 18 holes were in the Tour’s top-50 toughest holes last year. Justin Thomas won the PGA with a -8 and the cut coming at +5; the winning score is close to in line with previous years for the WFC not including Rory’s -21 massacre in 2015 (2013 and 2016 were -8 and -9 respectively), but the cut is usually in the +1/+2 range.

Quail Hollow has changed back slightly from what it was at the PGA, playing as a par-71 at 7,554 yards compared to 7,600 yards last year. The four par-3s here are extremely tough to manage and always have been, with the three that have always existed playing above par last year, and the new 4^th hole averaging 3.102 strokes even after an ace was made. The 4^th is the shortest of the par-3s at 167, while the existing sit between 208- and 249-yards; playing the -3s at or below par will go a long way this week.

Nine of the eleven par-4s are above 450 yards if you include the 449-yard 5^th, so P4 Efficiency > 450 Yards will be a focus in the stats as well. The two shorter par-4s are some of the easiest holes on the course (3^rd and 5^th to be exact), while the three par-5s are also exceptionally easy relative to the rest: 1^st, 2^nd and 4^th-easiest last year. The par-5s saw a combined 34 eagles at the PGA and sit between 546- and 592-yards.

Off the tee, golfers should have a slightly easier time finding fairways than in years past; the fairways at the 300-yard mark prior to 2017 sat at an average of only 26 yards across, while the re-design had stretched them out to 30 – even at shorter distances, the average width has climbed by ~3 yards. In the past, Quail Hollow has historically been one of the courses with the toughest fairways to find – ~50% hit – but in the PGA, golfers found the fairway 58.59% of the time. Even with the added distance, golfers still often pulled woods or even irons off the tee last year to find the fairway.

It’s the approach shots here that will cause the major difficulties now, with only 54% of greens hit in regulation, and an average proximity to the pin of 44’3” which was the furthest away last season. This is in large part thanks to the tough sloping and contouring of the fairways, which makes for awkward lies; beyond that, the typical distance needed on second shots is beyond 200 yards, which will reward strong long-iron players. One caveat on the proximity: last year’s greens were newly installed Bermuda which stays firm which made sticking balls tougher than it will be this year – not that the greens won’t be firm, they just won’t be as firm.

If the approach shots miss their marks, the bunkers around Quail Hollow are extremely punitive; the new sand was set up to mimic Augusta, where scrambling always shows its importance in avoiding bogey. Only 48% of missed greens last year managed to save par, and 47% of sand saves were made. This was partially thanks to the firmness of the new grass, but the Bermuda greens (overseeded with poa) at Quail are extremely tough thanks to lots of undulation and contouring so it shouldn’t be too different than last year. They’ll also be set up relatively fast (~12 on the stimpmeter, which is slower than last year).

The Stats

The Strokes Gained stats to focus on in order (not including Tee to Green):

• Approach
• Off-The-Tee
• Putting
• Around the Green

Counting stats to focus on in order:

• Greens in Regulation %
• Long Approach (over 175 yards) – this will have to be an amalgamation of the 175-200 and >200 statistics.
• Par-4 Efficiency Above 450 Yards
• Driving Distance
• Par-3 Birdie or Better %

Top-Tier Golfers

Justin Thomas ($11300): With most of the ownership this week settling on either Rory – for the course history – or Justin, a stand will need to be made on one of the two, and JT is the clear winner.

Beyond his big win to close out the Majors here last year, JT also finished T7 at Quail Hollow in 2015 (-11) although he did miss the cut in 2016. His form is incredible this season, with a top-25 finish in every event he’s played, not counting the team event Zurich Classic, and three of those eight finishes were top-5. He’s the class of the PGA Tour at the moment, and Thomas having the second-highest price this week is purely thanks to Rory’s course history weighting.

Although JT’s accuracy off the tee leaves something to be desired (59.25%), he crushes the ball with an All Drives Distance of 303.5, and he gains an average of 0.523 strokes off the tee (29^th). Where he’s been most impressive over the last year and a half is with his mid-to-long irons, as he’s been fantastic outside 200 yards; JT has made birdie on 20% of holes with an approach distance outside 200 and ranks 7^th in SG: Approach. He’s been phenomenal on both par-4s and -5s (4^th and 2^nd in BoB%, 1^st and 3^rd in Scoring Average respectively), and has performed well enough on the par-3s to expect close to par golf on those holes this week.

His Scrambling has been strong this year (19^th) and his putting is strong enough to let him continue to find success, but JT is prone to the odd 3-putt – he already has 22 of them on the year.

Phil Mickelson ($9200): Of the 13 times Lefty has played this course, he’s finished in the top-10 a whopping NINE times – seven of those being T5 or better – with no wins, but his worst finish was T35 back in 2006 when this tournament was the Wachovia Championship. Mickelson is also having a very good year at regular events, missing the cut in his tournament of the year (CareerBuilder) and making eight cuts in a row after that; Mickelson finally won at WGC Mexico, and has four top-10s overall this season.

Phil has always been an excellent scrambling golfer that’s strong with his irons, and that’s shown in his course history here as well as his stats this season:

• 5^th in SG: Approach
• 21^st in Approaches > 200 Yards (-14 in 73 attempts)
• 27^th in P4 Efficiency, 450-500 Yards
• 3^rd in Par-3 Birdie or Better % (20.38%) / 3^rd in overall Birdie or Better % (27.07%)
• 12^th in Scrambling, 2^nd in SG: Putting

 

Other golfers to consider: Patrick Reed ($9700) – form and strong approach game, 5^th in P4 Efficiency > 450, Rory McIlroy ($11800) – course history, bomber that succeeds on longer courses

 

Value Golfers (below $8000)

Grayson Murray ($6900): Not only goes Grayson have the North Carolina connection – born in Raleigh and attended UNC, Wake Forest and East Carolina because he loved school (don’t quote me on that) – but he’s very well-suited for Quail Hollow of years past with his big-hitting ways. Whether or not the renovations have a big effect on the course this year remains to be seen, but Murray has picked up finishes of T14/T14/T16 to go with two missed cuts in his five events and has shown up very well this season. He finished T22 here last year on the longer PGA Championship course but hadn’t played it at any point prior to last year’s event. Statistically, he checks only few boxes:

• 20^th in Par-4 Birdie or Better %
• Average approach distance when making BoB of 187.5 – a good sign on a long course
• 17^th in Approach proximity from outside 200 yards, -28 in 114 attempts
• 22^nd in Driving Distance

His Strokes Gained data doesn’t scream of success this week as he ranks poorly in all SG categories, but Murray continues to defy his stats and score at an incredible rate: 4.18 birdies per round, 14^th best on Tour. He’s an excellent play for DFS and has a ton of value at only $6900 this week.

Other values:

James Hahn ($7800) – past winner (2016), three top-25s this year with just one missed cut, very strong on approach (28^th SG:App)

Luke List ($7400) – tee-to-green stud (6^th), T16 at Quail Hollow in 2013 but MC in 2017 (PGA) and 2016. Bad with his short irons but great with his mid-to-long, just can’t putt. Big time birdie and bogey maker.

Lucas Glover ($6800) – typically very strong off the tee, past winner (2011) with a great course history, struggles with the putter. 10/13 cuts made at Quail, six in the top-25.

 

Good luck this week! You can follow me on Twitter @adalyfrey if you have any questions, and my DMs are always open.