The First Tee – Valspar Championship

After PHIL!! picked up his first win since before I was born, the Tour runs through Palm Harbor, Florida, for the Valspar. This tournament takes place at Innisbrook Resort’s Copperhead course and features the stretch of holes known as the Snake Pit (16-18).

Valspar has proven to be a tough test in the past, with the winning score coming anywhere from -7 (Senden, Schwartzel) to -15 (Gary Woodland). It’s known as a ball-striker’s course, and the stats this week will reflect that. Unlike last week which was a no-cut event, there’s a huge premium on finishing position points this week given how few birdies are made.

THE COURSE

Copperhead is a long 7340-yard course, playing as a par-71 with five par-3s and four par-5s. That distance may not seem like any big thing but given the fact that there are the five par-3s, it’s actually sneakily long; all but one of the par-4s sit between 420-475, the par-3s range between 195 and 235, the shortest par-5 (the opening hole which is also the easiest) is a rather simple 560.

The fairways at Copperhead are lined tightly with trees and are a touch narrower than average – the average on the back 9 ranges is 22 yards across, getting as low as 14 on the short par-4 12^th – which will put accuracy off the tee at a real premium. Beyond making sure to stay in the fairway, the positioning for the approach shot is very impactful at Copperhead: in 2016, birdies were made 18% of the time when the ball was in the fairway vs. 10% when the tee shot missed the fairway, but more importantly missing the fairway resulted in a bogey 34% of the time (vs 15% bogeys made from the fairway).

Beyond the tightness of the fairways, golfers will have to contend with water hazards on half the holes, and 3” thick rough off the fairways. After getting new Bermudagrass in 2015, the new-ish grass should be close to full maturation which means the fairways (and greens) will be firmer, which weather-permitting means long irons off the tee can make up a bit of the distance with some roll.

There are few fairway bunkers which will help on approach, but it can’t be stressed again how important it is to be taking that shot from the fairway. Second shots at Copperhead will be hitting into average greens in size, but with the tough pins they like to use at Valspar, players in the past have been quoted as viewing them as small; the greens are Tifeagle Bermudagrass, will be tough to get close to the pin on, and are of average speed but grainy which means the stronger putters can be a little more aggressive.

STATS

The Strokes Gained stats to focus on in order (not including Tee to Green):

• Approach
• Off the Tee
• Putting
• Around the Green

Counting stats to focus on in order:

• Driving Accuracy
• Bogey Avoidance %
• Birdie or Better %
• Proximity from 200+ Yards
• Par-4 Scoring – on a tough course like Copperhead, only one par-4 averaged below par last year. Being able to score or hold par on the nine par-4s is crucial to victory.

Top-Tier Golfers

Paul Casey ($9800): Although he doesn’t have a great track record at Valspar, Paul Casey statistically makes a strong case as an upper tier golfer. Casey’s best finishes in the four times he’s played Copperhead are a T37 and T42 (2011 and 2008 respectively), and he missed the cut the next two times he tried, in 2012 and 2014. For that reason, he should be able to avoid heavy ownership this week, but Casey is also entering the week after being massive chalk in Mexico (albeit at a different price tag) and has had a strong few weeks with a T8 at Pebble, T49 at Genesis, and T12 last week.

Casey’s strength has always been in his play from tee-to-green and he tends to give that back with his putter, but it’s too hard to ignore just how strong he is from tee-to-green and especially at a tough track like this one:

• 2^nd in Approach: Outside 200 Yards (9-under par)
• 17^th in SG: Approach / 10^th in Greens in Regulation
• 11^th in SG: Off-the-Tee / 14^th in Driving Accuracy (68.66%)
• 9^th in SG: Tee to Green
• T33 in Bogey Avoidance

Adam Hadwin ($8800) – Last year’s winner comes in at a shockingly-low price which guarantees he’ll have a lot of ownership this week, but his form is getting to be remarkable: since CareerBuilder where Hadwin finished T3, he’s had middling made cuts at WMPO and Farmers (T43 and T35 respectively), and finished T6 and T9 at the Genesis and WGC Mexico.

Statistically, Hadwin doesn’t look like much of a fit for Valspar just on his 2018 numbers, as his SG: Off-the-Tee sits at a horrific 138^th (losing 0.148 strokes). Luckily, those strokes lost are typically lost strokes that are lost thanks to a lack of distance, and Hadwin actually sits 44^th in Driving Accuracy. At a course where distance is mitigated off the tee is mitigated thanks to everyone needing to club down to keep it in the fairway, Hadwin is still in solid shape. He’s strong on approach, scores exceptionally well on par-4s, and is an elite talent around the greens or with a putter in hand.

 

Value Golfers (below $8000)

Cameron Smith ($8000): The coming-out party for CAM! should continue this week, with the young Aussie having not missed a cut on the PGA since last year’s Dell Tech. Championship; since then, Cam’s picked up three top-20s (T18-Sony, T20-Farmers, T6-Genesis) and made the cut here in his first two years with T42 and T49 finishes.

He’ll have to improve his accuracy off the tee, but at the tighter courses he’s played so far in his career (Riviera, TPC San Antonio) he’s had very strong finishes; Smith knows how to dial it back off the tee as well as avoid bogeys when missing the fairway, which is so important at a course like Copperhead. In his 28 measured rounds this year, Smith has only made bogey on 11.51% of his holes (T5). Smith is also 8-under on 43 attempts from outside 200 yards, 2-under from the rough (T18), and is a stud at both one-putting and scoring in general.

 

Chesson Hadley ($7400): Hadley’s had three shots at the Valspar and has walked away unscathed, with finishes of T69 (nice, 2016), T44 (2015), and T14 (2014). His blow-up in his two rounds of the Honda Classic were the only blemish on his card (W/D at Mayakoba excluded) since missing the cut at the Wyndham back in August – since then, Hadley has picked up four top-5 finishes, at Safeway, Sanderson Farms, Shriners, and WMPO.

One of the concerns about using Hadley is his lack of accuracy off the tee (56.58% fairways hit), but he’s so strong on approach and has such a great price tag that it’s worth the risk. Hadley sits 5^th in SG: Approach, 10^th relative to par from outside 200 yards, 16^th in Proximity to the Hole, and 31^st in Greens in Regulation. He’s 24^th in Bogey Avoidance, can score at will (24.69% BoB) and makes a lot of sense as a value play this week.

 

Good luck this week! You can follow me on Twitter @adalyfrey if you have any questions, and my DMs are always open.