The First Tee – Valero Texas Open

This Week

It’s the last week before the golf season really kicks off, which means a weaker field as players want to get to Georgia to prepare for the Masters. A regular cut event of top-70 and ties with a full weak field means there’s lot of good value plays, so a stars & scrubs lineup is definitely in play even with a cut.

THE COURSE

A reminder to not consider event history prior to 2010 as that didn’t take place at TPC San Antonio, but that should give a good chunk of history to consider. Typically, course history has been a factor here – per Geoff Ulrich, the past five winners of the event made the cut the year prior.

TPC San Antonio is a par-72 that’s listed at 7435 yards (long), and the Greg Norman designs favours length: three of the par-3s are outside 200 yards, three of the par-5s are outside 591, and half of the par-4s play above 450 yards. Although that plays long, this course can be very dangerous off the tee as the fairways are incredibly narrow which means the naturally-long players have a big, big advantage; the fairways are surrounded by trees/native area and average only 28 yards across so missing the fairways badly will be very punitive. Beyond the thick forest the course also features a couple water hazards and some easy fairway bunkers, but the rough is non-factor and cut short.

Depending on weather, the greens here are very tough to stick with only ~57% of greens getting hit in regulation; the greens slope backwards and push the ball towards the fringe, so unless the course is softened by rain, you’ll need golfers with good wedge play and high ball flight with their irons. The greens themselves are Bermuda and of average speed, fairly typical of what golfers will have seen so far this season and are very straight-forward for players that can actually hit the green.

Last year’s winner (Andrew Landry) had the best score this event has seen at this course with -17, as the winner has fallen between -8 and -14 every year since the 2010 iteration; the cut is usually above par, as this is one of the harder courses on Tour.

STATS

The Strokes Gained stats to focus on in order (not including Tee to Green):

• Approach
• Off the Tee
• Putting
• Around the Green

Counting stats to focus on in order:

• Total Driving (combined rank of Distance/Accuracy)
• Approach Shots: Outside 175 yards
• Greens in Regulation %
• Bogey Avoidance
• Par-5 Birdie or Better %

Top-Tier Golfers

Tony Finau ($10800): He’s only played this track twice (2015 and ’17) but he’s made the cut both times and finished T3 in his second attempt with a -9 score, and Finau’s put up four top-25 finishes in seven events so far this year so his form is fine. Finau’s dominance off the tee is so key to success here, as he’s gaining the 13^th-most strokes off the tee (0.607/round) thanks to incredible distance – although his accuracy leaves something to be desired.

From beyond 175 yards, Finau is 29 under par on 117 attempts and he has the high ball flight necessary for holding the greens and giving himself birdie looks – which he’s converting 35.4% of the time. Finau’s distance puts him among the elite with the par-5 scorers, so he’ll be able to find some success here on the necessary holes.

Jason Kokrak ($9400): Guaranteed to be incredibly chalky off a T2 at the Valspar and six top-25s in only eight events played in 2019, Kokrak sets up very well for this course and has some strong history to back that up: five made cuts in seven tries with two top-25s. This season has seen Kokrak play out of his mind from tee to green, ranking 9^th overall (+1.478) with very strong play on approach; Kokrak ranks fourth in SG: Approach but will struggle on the very long approaches, but when he hits the fairway he’s -0.178 to par which is good for seventh on Tour.

He’s not the most accurate but at 64.38% he ranks 70^th which is fine, and he can hit it long if he has to – he ranks 30^th in driving distance (303.3) but 53^rd on all drives distance (289.4) which shows someone that can uncork it when needed. He’s a pretty dismal putter, but he’s still converting birdie putts at 32.98% clip and is making birdie or better on 24.49% of holes, so his scoring potential is high.

 

Value Golfer (below $8000)

Brendan Steele ($7200): In his eight times here, Steele has made seven cuts and has four top-25 finishes, which includes a win back in 2011; unfortunately, he’s priced as low as he is because his form has been horrendous this season, with only two made cuts since the start of 2019 (eight events).

That being said, Steele has a ton of upside at this course thanks to his great play off the tee – he ranks 35^th in SG: OTT with very strong accuracy (67.93%) and great distance (289.1 on all drives), which is needed at a long course with narrow fairways. The rest of his game is a major concern though, as he’s 142^nd in SG: Approach, 209^th Around the Green, and 202^nd in Putting, which are all obviously horrific. He’s a very high-risk/high-reward play, but his history here even in his down years points to a strong low-owned play.

Joel Dahmen ($7500): His form is good with finishes of T12, T30 and T12 at Corales, Valspar and the Players respectively, and Dahmen’s strong play from tee to green sets up well here even as he struggles on the greens. Dahmen’s losing 0.258 strokes per round on the greens which is ranks him a dismal 158^th, but this is a course where poor putters can find success, so his 0.412 strokes gained from tee to green should help in that regard. He’s not the longest but he is accurate (12^th), and he’s better with mid-to-long irons which sets up well given the length of the course. He’s missed the cut and finished T75 here, but his made cut came last year.

You can follow me on Twitter @adalyfrey and good luck this week!