The First Tee – Valero Texas Open

Congrats are due to Pat Mayo for his great week at the Heritage last week, but it’s on to the Valero Texas Open this week for the ninth iteration of the event at TPC San Antonio. It’s important to ignore any history from before 2010, as that took place at a different track.

Scores here tend to fluctuate at the discretion of the weather: the winning score has been between -8 (Steele, Bowditch) up to -14 (Scott, Laird) with the average winning score -11. The cut can be a different story as this tends to be a weaker field event which means worse golfers, so in poor conditions the average cut line of +1 can jump up to +7 (2015). It’s crucial to check the weather ahead of time to ensure there’s no AM/PM split catastrophe waiting to happen, as it did in 2015.

The Course

TPC San Antonio is a Greg Norman-designed par-72 that’s very long, listed officially at 7435 yards. Distance – both off the tee and on approach – is needed here, with three of the par-3s sitting above 200 yards; three of the four par-5s are quite lengthy, between 591 and 604 yards, while the remaining is definitely scoreable at 567. Only half of the par-4s sit below 450 yards.

Although it’s a lengthy course where driver is needed off the tee, TPC San Antonio isn’t exactly a bomber’s paradise. The fairways are narrow – averaging 28 yards across at the 300-yard mark – with native forest area closing them in, so sending the ball off the fairway could end up in serious trouble. Errant balls could end up in water hazards (three holes), fairway bunkers (although not deep and balls rarely get plugged), or the aforementioned native forest. This is the course where Kevin Na famously took a 16 on a par-4 – that’s worse than Sergio at Firethorn! – thanks to finding himself in the woods. The rough is a non-factor here, cut short, so realistically golfers will have about 40 yards of landing area on each par-4 or -5 tee shot to avoid getting into real trouble.

On approach, golfers will be looking at greens of around average size, but they’re very tough to stick the ball close to the pin – unless there’s any rain, which will make them a touch more receptive. Part of the reason that only ~57% of greens are hit in regulation is due to tough positioning off the tee shot, but a large part is how the greens slope backwards. Most of the greens on the course will slope towards the fringe, so finding the right landing areas on the green is crucial. The average approach distance to target will be long this week, above 175 yards. The average proximity to the pin is typically one of the hardest on Tour: third-toughest from 150-175, eighth-toughest from 175-200, and third-toughest outside 200 yards last year. Overall fairway proximity in the last four years has ranked 11^th-(32’9”), 18^th-(31’3”), 1^st-(38’0”) and 8^th– (33’6”) toughest.

The Bermudagrass greens are of average speed (around 11’ on the stimpmeter) and don’t offer much resistance within 10’-15’. Both the overall putting average and one-putt percentage on this course are very, very simple (44^th– and 47^th-toughest respectively), so it’s a course where you can typically use some of the worse putters; this is evidenced with players like Adam Scott, Kevin Chappell and Brendan Steele all taking home the W.

The Strokes Gained stats to focus on in order (not including Tee to Green):

• Off-The-Tee
• Approach
• Around the Green
• Putting

Counting stats to focus on in order:

• Total Driving (this is not a perfect stat by any measure, but I’m putting it first to stress how important off the tee play is)
• Approach Shots: Outside 175 yards
• Greens in Regulation %
• Bogey Avoidance
• Par-5 Birdie or Better %

Top-Tier Golfers

Luke List ($10000): His tournament history isn’t what one would consider sparkling – MC in 2017, T29 in 2016 and T46 in 2013 – but List checks so many boxes entering this week that he’s a strong play even at this price point. He’s having a great year on Tour and is coming off a T3 at the Heritage last week to go along with six top-25 finishes out of his eleven events played this season (two missed cuts).

List is one of the best players in terms of getting from tee to green, currently 6^th with 1.627 strokes gained. He does that by being close-to-elite both off the tee (10^th SG:OTT) and approach (32^nd SG:APP), but as always it’s his putting that sinks him – Luke is currently averaging 0.137 strokes lost with the flatstick. At TPC San Antonio, that won’t be as much of a factor thanks to consistently putting himself in great spots on the green; even struggling with the putter, he averages 4.16 birdies per round (T16) and is a par-5 stud (13^th in P5BoB%) which makes for an excellent DraftKings play every week.

Although his proximity to the pin on average outside 175 yards isn’t sparkling, List is still -24 from that distance (219 attempts), and he’s a much better player with his mid-to-long irons than with a wedge in his hand. For comparison’s sake, List is only -6 from 50-125 yards (88 attempts) which puts him 160^th overall. A track where great iron play is necessary fits him perfectly, he just needs to get lucky with the putter.

Ollie Schniederjans ($8700): His play off the tee is currently atrocious relative to where it was last year – losing 0.2 strokes to the field this season versus gaining 0.125 – but Ollie has played some tight tracks this year and hasn’t been in the field for some of the more bomber-friendly events. Even having lost strokes off the tee, Ollie is still gaining from tee to green (57^th) and popped in his T18 finish last year. He’s on a made cut streak of four, although his finishes recently have been middling; his T3 and T7 at WMPO and Sony feel very far away after three recent finishes in the 40^th range. All that said, Ollie still looks like a solid play for DFS, and should see lower ownership after not performing at his price point for two full months.

He manages to average 4.05 birdies per round (T24) even with middling strokes gained stats, he just needs to avoid the crippling bogeys to get through the cut. If the weather gets bad, he’s also got a very low launch angle which would help combat any wind that picks up.

 

Other golfers to consider: Adam Scott ($9600)

 

Value Golfers (below $8000)

Julian Suri ($7600): The Jacksonville native that went the Brooks Koepka route is playing more PGA events this year and has been solid in making four out of five cuts (missing at WMPO) and finishing T8 at the Houston Open after getting in as a Monday qualifier. Over on the Euro Tour, he’s missed two out of four cuts, but also picked up at T2 at the Hong Kong Open. Because he’s split time between the two tours, it’s important to note that his statistics will be based on small samples, but Suri is a great driver of the ball who’s got a solid approach game but may struggle to putt; growing up with Bermuda greens should see his putting improve from his poor results on the Euro Tour.

From the Euro Tour, Suri ranks:

• 33^rd in SG: Off the Tee
• 38^th in SG: Tee to Green
• 39^th in Driving Distance

He should be fairly low-owned as a name not many recognize but is definitely a high-risk/high-reward value play.

 

Grayson Murray ($7300): Murray has never played this course before and on raw statistics, he looks to be a bit of a mess this week: he’s 80^th in SG: OTT (compared to 40^th last season), 89^th in SG: APP, and 90^th in SG: T2G. That being said, Murray is one of the best in the field this week with his mid-to-long irons and should be able to find the green in scoring position relatively easily. Although his putting numbers also don’t reflect well (154^th), Murray still averages only 1.74 putts per hole which is T31, and his one-putt percentage of 40.7% is T50th.

The reasons to like him this week are for his incredible rates. Murray is a great birdie-maker (4.09, T20) and has already picked up eight eagles on the year – 11^th in Holes per Eagle – and even better, has dominated par-3s and -4s this season. He’s picked up birdie or better on 18% of both this season and is currently 16^th(!) in overall birdie or better % with 23.67%. The smart play for a long hitter that’s strong with his irons would be to club down from driver to make sure he lands in the fairway (or just off it), because Murray can more than make up ground on his approach. He’s a bit high-risk/high-reward and has already been talked up on Twitter quite a bit, but still offers a lot of value.

Other values: C.T. Pan ($7200), Tom Lovelady ($7100)

 

Round One Golfers

Xander Schauffele – X doesn’t rate out very well for me on the whole, but he’s someone to consider for round one tournaments as a hot starter. He’s 8^th on Tour in Round One Scoring, and in eight events he’s put up scores in the 60s in four first rounds and hasn’t gone above par in any of them.

Chris Paisley – The UK golfer is consistently a hot early play, and a great Round One / First Round Leader play. Since 2018, his scores in the first round are: 66, 69, 65, 65, 65. Tough to get much better than that, although he’s a streaky putter. His approach game is very solid, so he’ll put himself in good positions for birdie.

 

Good luck this week! You can follow me on Twitter @adalyfrey if you have any questions, and my DMs are always open.