The First Tee – US Open

Greetings from Sorrento, Italy as I look out at the beautiful Amalfi coast writing this article. (Don’t worry I’ll still be playing the big money contests with the help of a few friends uploading my entries for me). The first “major” edition of the First Tee features one of the most notoriously hard courses to hold a US Open. Oakmont will host its record setting 9th US Open, the last one being in 2007.

Weekly Roundup – The FedEx St. Jude Classic

After day one, we saw 3 players tied at the lead and none of them were even close to top 50 in the world. Scoring was extremely difficult the first two days as the cut line hovered between 1 and 2 over and if you followed @fantasygolfinsider you would have seen that a late day push brought the cut back to +1. Seventy-four golfers were on or below that number.

The FESJC showed me this week that perseverance pays off, maybe not for me this week, but some other bigger players, as you’ll see below, had a fantastic week. Fading the high priced golfers in a weaker tournament worked, as it would have been tough to get Berger and Johnson on the same team and fill the rest of your lineup with guys that performed well. Also for the third straight week my “heading south” guys played well, so you might want to use that section as a contrarian play. *Note I tweeted out after Luke Donald WD that Russell Henley was my other fade.*

Last Week’s Results

I was a little bit more reserved last week as I wanted to prepare for a big week ahead with much more guaranteed money on the line. I did have an overweight on DJ, Phil, and Berger, which gave me a chance in the $3 birdie. Heading into Sunday I was in 10th, but a Colt Knost, Hudson Swafford and Camilio Vilegas blow up, cost me any chance I had at winning… As goes DraftKings right?

• Where I went Wrong- Overweight on DJ really ended up costing me a bigger overweight on Berger
• Where I went Right- As I thought, and mentioned in my “on the rise piece” I felt Riefers & Woodland were quite expensive, and they both ended up with an MC. My guy Abraham Ancer did not let me down coming in with a great finish for his price with a T18th. He was my best finish for the “On the Rise Segment”.

Player Ownership Analysis

This section will be dedicated to following the major players in DFS Golf, as with a lot of other facets in life it’s important to stay up to date on what the “pros are doing”. Here I’ll take a look into each of their exposures for the week, what worked, what didn’t, and a few other facts and figures on the previous week’s contests.

SaahilSud – For the third straight week, Saahil struggled. He did have DJ in almost all of his entries, but where he went wrong was with the Jason’s. Both Bohn and Gore had MC’s and took out most of his lineups.

• Results:
o $3- 200 Entries entered: Best Finish- 2815th
o $33- 200 Entries entered: Best Finish- 298th
o $300- 40 Entries entered: Best Finish- 55th

• Players Used
o $3- 27 Players used
o $33- 27 Players used
o $300-17 Players used

• Player Own %- $3 & $33
o DJ-98%
o Jason Bohn- 73%
o Jason Gore- 66.5%
o Martin Laird- 47%
o Stewart Cink- 41%
o Brooks Koepka- 38%
o Cameron Smith- 38%

Jetblackx – A Marginal week for the one of the top players. For the second week in a row his top owned guy was an MC. This week it was Gary Woodland, and Bud Cauley.

• Results:
o $3- 500 Entries entered: Best Finish- 1185th
o $33- 200 Entries entered: Best Finish- 120th
o $300- 30 Entries Entered: Best Finish- 7th, 45th, 48th

• Players Used
o $3- 49 Players used
o $33- 49 Players used
o $300-32 Players used

• Player Own %
o Gary Woodland- 57.5%
o Bud Cauley- 56%
o Francesco Molinari- 47.5%
o Graeme McDowell- 45.5%
o Charles Howell III- 41%
o DJ- 39%
o Robert Garrigus- 35%
o Harris English- 34.5%

Priestapp– Backing up a bit from last week’s good results, Daniel Berger was only a 12% exposure which cost him his chance at top 10’s.

• Results:
o $3- 500 Entries entered: Best Finish-429th
o $33- 200 Entries entered: Best Finish- 41st
o $300- 15 Entries Entered: Best Finish- 23rd

• Players Used
o $3- 69 Players used
o $33- 69 Players used
o $300-32 Players used

• Player Own %
o DJ-35.5%
o Ryan Palmer-34.5%
o Ben Crane- 34.5%
o Brooks Koepka- 33.5%
o Phil Mickelson- 33%
o Robert Garrigus- 22.5%

JAE686– After a tough week following a big exposure to the Cut Rickie Fowler, JAE686 had a huge week.

• Results:
o $3- 200 Entries entered: Best Finish- 146th
o $33- 200 Entries entered: Best Finish- 11th, 39th, 43rd
o $300- 40 Entries entered: Best Finish- 4th, 5th, 9th, 10th, 15th

• Players Used
o $3- 66 Players used
o $33- 66 Players used
o $300-43 Players used

• Player Own %
o Phil Mickelson-34%
o DJ- 29.5%
o Brooks Koepka- 27.5%
o David Hearn-20.5%
o Graeme McDowell- 20%
o Daniel Berger- 13%

Kunu88: Last week’s breakthrough performer had a tougher go at it this week. The reason being? Daniel Berger was not selected for any of his entries.

• Results:
o $3-58 Entries: Best Finish- 6070
o $33- 57 Entries entered: Best Finish- 616
o $300- 8 Entries Entered: Best Finish- 116th

• Players Used-
o $3- 27 Players used
o $33- 25 Players used
o $300-16 Players used

• Player Own %
o Phil Mickelson- 72%
o Brooks Koepka-54.4%
o Freddie Jacobson- 33.3%
o Camilo Villegas- 33.3%
o Jason Bohn- 33.3%
o Francesco Molinari- 33.3%
o Chad Campbell- 33.3%
o Martin Laird- 31.6%
o Ratief Goosen- 30%
o Johnson Wagner- 30%
o Jason Gore- 30%
o Charles Howell III-30%

Bric75– This week’s breakthrough performer, as he won the top prize of the week 50k for first place in the $33. He did so by having only 16 entries using 27 players.

• Results:
o $3-17 Entries: Best Finish- 24th
o $33- 16 Entries: Best Finish- 1st
o $300- No entries.

• Players Used
o $3-
o $33- 27 Players used

• Player Own %
o DJ- 44%
o Chad Campbell- 37.5%
o Graeme McDowell- 31%
o Harris English- 31%
o Gary Woodland- 31%
o Daniel Berger- 31%
o Johnson Wagner- 31%
o Jason Gore- 31%
o Bud Cauley- 31%
o Steve Stricker- 31%

The US Open at Oakmont

When the salaries came out and I saw Tiger’s name, it was a moment of excitement, but I had to be realistic as nearly everyone knows he’s just not ready. Luckily there was no drama this time, like we saw at The Masters, as he WD as soon as those salaries came out. Enough about a man who isn’t playing, lets focus on the players that will be on the course this week. As I mentioned before, Oakmont is notoriously one of the harder courses these men will face all year, with the expected winner to come in over par. Birdies will be at an absolute premium, and you must take advantage of the shorter par 4’s and only 2 par 5’s on the course. Some rumblings and articles have already stated that the course will set up almost identically to how it was in 2007, with only a handful of players that played in that tournament qualifying for this one, most notably Phil Mickelon, David Toms & Jim Furyk. So with relatively no course history to rely on, stats should, and will for me, play a bigger role in my lineup construction.

1. Birdie or Better %– Always going to be number 1 on the list because of Draft Kings scoring. With them coming at a premium this week, it makes this stat so important.
a. Top Ranked Players on PGA Tour *Participating in this Tournament: In order 1-5
b. DJ, Spieth, McIlroy, Day, Matsuyama

2. Scrambling
a. Scrambling moves up to the number two spot on my list this week for a few reasons. Firstly, with the greens as hard and fast as they are going to be I expect a lot of shots to fall victim and end up off the green. Therefore scrambling becomes so vitally important.
b. Top Ranked Players on PGA Tour in order
c. Patrick Reed-4, Luke Donald-6, Brandt Snedker-9, Marc Leishman- 15, David Toms-16

3. Strokes Gained Putting– Moving up one spot on my list this week its Strokes Gained Putting. With these greens, you’re going to need to putt to have any chance to win.
a. Top Ranked Players on PGA Tour* Participating in this tournament: Day-1, Donadlson-3, Mickelson-5, Spieth- 6, Landry-8

4. Bounce Back %– Bogey’s are going to be plentiful this week, so I want to focus on guys that can move on from a bogey and not dwell on it (something I wish I knew how to do in my own game)!
a. Top Ranked Players on PGA Tour* Participating in this tournament
b. Day-1, Matsuyama-2, Garcia- 3, Mickelson-5, Bubba Watson- 6

5. Lastly but certainly not least, with a course as hard as Oakmont, you need a great All Around game to place well.
a. Top Ranked Players on PGA Tour* Participating in this tournament
b. Rose-1, Day-2, Rory-3, Rickie-4, Scott-5

Player Focus – On the Rise

It’s major time, so that means all top 60 players in the OWGR are here to give it their best shot winning a major. I was 5/9 last week and am 13/18 overall. My best finish was the low priced guy Ancer who finished 18th.

1. Matt Kuchar – $8,500
a. On this list for the second straight week he’s played, and moving up to #1 Matt’s recent form has been out of this world. Here’s the only problem HE HASN’T WON YET. Oh also he’s never won a major before. However, the run of great performances is very similar to what we saw with Charley Hoffman before his break though win at the Valero.
b. The stats I am focused on; he comes in ranked very well on almost all of them. 25th in scrambling, 19th in strokes gained putting, 7th in par 4 scoring and 15th in tee to green.
c. Did I mention his recent form? 4th, 6th, 3rd, 3rd in his last four. I’d say that’s pretty darn consistent.
d. At just $8500 he presents a versatile play to pair with one of the “big three” (day, Spieth, Mcilroy) if your thought is one of them will win.
e. Target Points*- 85 Points (Top 10 Position and 10+ Birdies)

2. Dustin Johnson – $11,000
a. It’s his time. IMHO he is the best player out there to have never won a major and with last year’s DEBACLE on 18, I think he’s ready to finally break though. He’s my pick to win it.
b. Recent form- An awful Saturday cost DJ a chance to win, but a wonderful round on Sunday brought him back into the Top 5. Pair that with a third at Memorial, his form is trending in the right direction.
c. His best stat on my list is 5th on tour in tee to green, and 2nd in par 4 scoring.

3. Charl Schwatzel – $7500
a. If you’ve read the US Open preview, written fantastically by Pari, read it here, he also mentioned Charl as a great medium priced guy to own. A former major winner, we know he has the tools to get it done.
b. Statically, Charl’s game sets up will for this course. 26th in scrambling, 14th in bounce back %, 15th in par 4 scoring and 9th in tee to green.
c. Coming off a t11 at the Memorial, his form seems to be trending back to where it was earlier in the season when he won in Tampa at the Valspar.
d. Only 7500? This is the lowest we’ve seen Charl in quite some time.
e. Target Points*- 85 Points (Top 10 position and 10+Birdies)

4. Jason Day – $12,100
a. Showing up #4 on the list, due to his high salary, Day as you saw above has the best stats for this golf course.
b. We all know he’s in pursuit now if his second major, and from his recent play looks like he wants to win every time he steps on the course.
c. Day’s short game has been absolutely superior to the other 2 big guys this year, as Mcilroy may be putting left handed this week, who knows. Spieth’s short game has been way off compared to last year, his putting however has started to get better over the last few weeks.
d. His salary is obviously the highest, but if you held a gun to my head and told me I had to pick one of the top guys, it would be Day.
e. Recent form includes: 27th 1st, 5th.
f. Target Points- 100+(Top 3 Finish 15+birdies)

5. Daniel Berger – $7,200*****
a. Building off his bogey free 71 on Sunday @ the Memorial Daniel was able to put everything together for his first win on tour.
b. His stats are really average across the board 46th in strokes gain putting, 33rd in bounce back %, 25th in par 4 scoring and 51st in tee to green.
c. The recent form as I mentioned a great showing at the FESJC a good Sunday at the Memorial and prior to that 9th 17th and 20th. I love his price coming off a win, and think people will avoid him because of it.
d. Target Points*- 85 (Top 20 position, 10+ birdies)

6. Danny Lee – $6,800
a. A very strong field means a much lower salary for what we are used to seeing with Lee.
b. In his last 6 starts he’s made the cut in all 6 with 3 top 25’s including a 9th 22nd and 18th.
c. His all-around game checks in ranked 18th on tour, paired with his 30th in tee to green and 25th in driving accuracy.
d. Target Points*- 90 (Top 10 position, plus 14-17 birdies)

7. Anriban Lahiri – $6,100
a. A rising star in his home country of India, Lahiri is really starting to spread the game of golf to the world’s second most populous country. We’ve seen his name quite a few times as the R1 leader, but has faltered a bit after that.
b. 5/5 in his last 5 appearances with his best finish being 6th. A couple other mid 40’s mixed in, overall he’s been in good form.
c. If your looking to construct a roster with 2 of the big three, Lahiri should be the third guy on your team as he’s a low cost option with a lot of upside.
d. Checking in on his stats, Lahiri comes in ranked 41st in total putting, 34th in bounce back % and 32nd in par 4 scoring,
e. Target Points*- 75 (Top 25 position, plus 10+birdies)

8. Gregory Bourdy – $6,300
a. My first full time European PGA Tour resident to make the list Bourdy played a great first two rounds at the Lyoness open in Austria this past week. Including the Lyoness he’s 6/6 including a 21st 15th and 10th to go along with his X place finish this past weekend.
b. The European PGA tour does not have nearly as many stat’s as the boys here in America do, but as far as the ones they follow Greg is above average on some very important stats for this week. 22nd on tour in driving accuracy,43rd in GIR, and 24th in scrambling average.
c. Greg had a good week last week finishing in a tie for 6th. Match that with a 15th and 10th in his last 3 showings, his form his right on par with what we are looking for in this price range.
d. Other Euro Tour Players to keep an eye on: Jaco Van Syl (6000), Romain Wattel (6300), Andrew Johnston (6100), Lee Slattery (6000), Peter Hanson (6200), Gary Stal (6200) (also finished 6th last week)

9. Arron Wise – $5,800
a. How can I not pick the Oregon Duck for my below 6000 guy? The reigning NCCA Champ, also helped his team secure the Team title, he’s coming in hot, and it will be his first tourney as a pro. I like him to make the cut this weekend and to make a name for himself on the PGA tour sooner rather than later.
*Target Points- This is a formula that takes average DraftKings points divided by their salary and removing the decimal places.

Heading South – Fades

1. Justin Rose – $10,500
The fact that Justin hasn’t played in a while citing a back injury concerns me, especially with his price tag. I’d much rather go to an Adam Scott at 10,100 or Hideki at 9,600 then pay up for Rose and risk a possible WD or rusty performance. To break even on him you’d need a top 10 finish, as his game is suited for the course, I just don’t know how he’s feeling physically. Because he’s a prior major winner, I won’t totally fade him but he won’t go above a 5% exposure.

2. Bubba Watson – $9500
He’s so fun to watch play, but a 63rd and 45th in his last two starts sounds like he should be about $6,500 not $9,500. It won’t be a total fade but a max of 3% will be the exposure.