The First Tee – Travelers Championship

After leaving the excitement of Shinnecock Hills and all that came with it – a Phil meltdown, the USGA melting down in two different ways, and a back-to-back US Open winner – the PGA moves over to TPC River Highlands in Connecticut for a typical week of TPC golf.

The Course

River Highlands is a very short par-70, listed at only 6841 yards, with an average hole-length of just 380 yards, and the course played just a touch above par last year. Most holes on this course are very gettable, especially on the front nine: of the eight holes that averaged below par last year, five came on the front.

This being a TPC course that’s designed by Pete Dye, it’s a pretty straight-forward (read: boring) test of golf: the fairways are narrow for longer drives (averages 35 yards across at the 275-yard marker, but just 28 yards across at the 300-yard marker and beyond), there’s plenty of water, and the greens are designed to be tough to hold.

The two par-5s sit between 523- and 574-yards, and saw a combined 15 eagles in 2017. The other extremely scoreable hole is the 15^th, which is a 296-yard par-4; it averaged only 3.746, and saw nine eagles! There are only two par-4s that play longer than 450 yards, and two play below 400 yards; the most common approach dispersion will be 125-150 yards* thanks to players not needing to smash driver off the tee.

*as always, this may vary depending on the length & aggressiveness of the players you look to roster, it’s dynamic more than anything. Longer players should be adjusted to 50-125 yards, while shorter players can stay at 125-150 or even look at the 150+ range.

Off the tee, golfers will be looking at the aforementioned narrow-ish fairways that are lined with trees, but the positive is that the course is so short they can leave the big stick in the bag; with no blind tee shots, 68% of fairways are hit at River Highlands, thanks to not needing driver. The fairways themselves don’t feature much roll – unless it’s excessively hot and dry, so check the weather – so golfers still need to hit the tee shot with enough carry distance.

The greens at TPC River Highlands are bentgrass, but are designed to be quite hard to hold (although nothing like Shinnecock). They’re slow – around 10.5’ on the stimpmeter – but feature so much undulation and they slope away from the pin that the ball will be tough to stick, especially if there’s no wet conditions. The average proximity to the hole on this course last year was just 36’0” which is around middle of the pack, and it was the 10^th-toughest course in terms of scrambling; the sloping makes for tough up-and-downs. Approach shots are therefore critical.

 

The Stats

The Strokes Gained stats to focus on in order (not including Tee to Green):

• Approach
• Off-the-Tee
• Around-the-Green
• Putting

Counting stats to focus on in order:

• Par-4 Birdie or Better %
• Approach Shots 125-150 Yards
• Greens in Regulation
• Bogey Avoidance
• Scrambling (never a perfect stat, but it’ll do)

Top-Tier Golfer

Ryan Moore ($9000): Not only has Moore picked up a massive SEVEN top-25s in his ten outings at TPC River Highlands, but he’s only missed one cut here (2008) and has two runner-up finishes and half his appearances have seen him in the top-10. Whether you’re a believer of course history or not, that’s tough to ignore. Moore typically plays very well on TPC courses, as shown by his finishes at the PLAYERS (T30), Texas Open (7^th), and RBC Heritage (T16).

Statistically, he fits the model of a short-knocker that’s strong on approach, which is the TPC or Pete Dye prototype:

• 31^st in SG: Off the Tee thanks to the 4^th-best accuracy off the tee (71.78%)
• 20^th in SG: Approach (0.565)
• 18-under par from 50-125 yards out (T38) / average proximity of 22’3” from 125-150 out
• T11 in Par-4 Scoring / 17.11% P4 Birdie or Better
• 5^th in Scrambling / 24^th in SG: Around the Green

Moore’s putting is always going to hold him back, as he ranks poorly in most categories on the green; the one strong point of Moore’s play on the greens is that he’s much, much better at avoiding three-putts (only 2.67%).

 

Other golfers to consider:

Justin Thomas ($11500)

Pros: Excels from tee to green (2^nd in SG:T2G) thanks to incredible approach game. Distance is always the great divider in scoring, and JT averages 4.33 birdies/round and ranks first in holes per eagle (72). Strong one-putt percentage, but that’s mostly from being in good positions. Elite on par-4s and -5s. Finished T3 here in 2016.

Cons: Can’t hit a fairway to save his life (59.15%, 138^th on Tour). Expensive, and will be highly-owned. If he misses the green or has a long putt, his three-putt percentage is bad. Relatively weak on par-3s compared to the rest of his game, and his approach game is better with longer irons which won’t make it much of a factor this week. Beyond 2016, his salary wouldn’t just his course history (two MC and a T30).

 

Jordan Spieth ($10600)

Pros: Has played the course once: winner winner, chicken dinner (2017). 2^nd on Tour in Greens in Regulation and 17^th in SG: Approach, he’s -17 on approach shots from 50-150 yards out and has a strong proximity number. Even with horrible putting, still a top-5 golfer on both par-4s and -5s, and sits 6^th in Birdie or Better %. Strong off the tee, especially if he keeps driver in the bag.

Cons: Coming off a tough missed cut at the U.S. Open last week, and an overall poor year for the Golden Child. PUTTING PUTTING PUTTING PUTTING PUTTING (repeat ad nauseam) – would be a top-5 golfer this year if he could figure out his putter.

Value Golfer (below $8000)

Chez Reavie ($7200): Reavie has only missed one cut here in his seven attempts, and his was his first try back in 2008; conversely, he’s only picked up two top-25s in that time, but he’s had good success on Dye tracks in the past. He’s coming off a missed cut at Shinnecock (by a stroke) but finished T6 at St. Jude, and has two runner-up finishes this season on tough courses.

The one factor that tends to hold Reavie back is his play around the greens, specifically from the fringe and any sand – which could be a factor. He’s lost strokes around the green but has been fantastic at scrambling to save par (9^th, 64.05%) and is an average-to-slightly-above-average putter.

Beyond that though, Reavie checks many boxes:

• T4 in Driving Accuracy / 36^th in SG: Off the Tee
• 34^th in SG: Approach / 47^th in Greens in Regulation
• 21 under par from 125-150 (6^th) / 15 under par from 150-175 (6^th)
  • These numbers reflect Reavie’s lack of length off the tee more appropriately, which is good since he’s struggled from 50-125
• T9 in Par-4 Scoring (3.98) / 19^th in Par-4 BoB% (18.61%)
• 8 birdies per round, which is impressive for a short hitter

 

Brice Garnett ($6700)

Pros: Accurate off the tees and getting to the green in regulation at a 65% clip, Garnett’s stats don’t really reflect his talent. Finished T20 here last year and made the cut in 2016, Garnett has made the cut on most TPC/Pete Dye courses this year and has only missed one cut since April (at the FWI). Should come in at extremely low ownership. 26-under par from 50-125 yards out.

Cons: Statistical mess. Bad putter, is losing strokes in every category except for off the tee, and doesn’t score well (19% BoB%). Lots of reasons to make him a high-risk/high-reward play, but he’s extremely affordable and has a strong golf game beyond the stats.

You can follow me on Twitter @adalyfrey and good luck this week!