The First Tee – Tour Championship by Adam Daly

This week the PGA 2017 season comes to an end with the last leg of the FedEx Cup, the TOUR Championship at East Lake Golf Club. It’s a 30-player no-cut event, so it’s a good strategy to leave some money on the table if you’re playing. FULL DISCLOSURE: I’m personally not playing because a 30-man event is suboptimal for a one-lineup player, and I would typically recommend calling it a season unless DraftKings/etc. have lots of overlay come 11:39 a.m. on Thursday.

This Week

THE COURSE

The TOUR Championship is happening at East Lake Golf Club, as it has since 2004, and unlike last week’s free-for-all (congratulations to Marc Leishman), scores are typically in the -8 to -12 range with the exception being Tiger’s -23 in 2007. Last year saw Rory McIlroy (not in the field) beat Kevin Chappell and Ryan Moore in a playoff to steal the FedEx Cup from under Dustin Johnson with a score of -12, and eight of the 30 players shoot above par.

East Lake is a par-70 sitting at 7385 yards, making it a little longer than at first glance, with only two par-5s that can be scored on but eagles are almost non-existent – again, a big change from last week. The 600-yard 18^th is a great finishing hole for the event with a large body of water on the right side of the fairway around 375 yards, so expect lots of golfers to try for the green in three unless someone really needs to make a move at their last chance of the day.

Nine of the par-4s sit above 440 yards, which will help explain why 33% of approach shots are from beyond 200 yards. With very narrow fairways on this Atlanta course, drivers should typically stay in the bags which will make those approach shots that much tougher. The ideal place to hit for a golfer if confident in their long irons is actually around the 250-275 range off the tee, which will see the widest part of the fairways.

Realistically though, golfers will still have to pull driver, which makes this one of the harder courses to hit the fairway on. Only ~53% of fairways have been hit on this course since 2010 (courtesy Josh Culp), and for those that end up missing, the rough can be very costly. It’s Bermuda rough, which can leave awkward lies that leave golfers scratching their heads as to how the ball will come out, so driving accuracy is at a premium this week – the DA% correlation to finish position on this course is about 10% higher than on average.

For golfers that do land in the fairway, they’ll be faced with those long approaches into some average-sized Bermuda greens that can run fast, and play firm. That will lead to some tough putting distances and few birdies, which will put an emphasis on putters that can hit from distance and at worst end up with a two-putt.

STATS

The Strokes Gained stats to focus on in order (not including Tee to Green) – TEE TO GREEN HAS MORE EMPHASIS THAN NORMAL:

• Approach
• Putting
• Off-The-Tee
• Around the Green

Counting stats to focus on in order:

• Bogey Avoidance
• Greens in Regulation %
• Par-4 Scoring
• Driving Accuracy
• Approach Outside 200 Yards
• Scrambling

The Golfers

Jordan Spieth ($11600) – It’s not a big leap to pick the number one-ranked Fed Ex golfer who sits as the most expensive golfer in the field, but Jordan Spieth has shown time and time again that if he’s not the best golfer in the world, he’s the second. When it comes to Bermuda courses, Spieth has the most strokes gained total as well as the most strokes gained putting, and should continue to find that success this week. Being that it’s Monday night, ownership on Spieth could realistically go anywhere – he’s always lower-owned than he should be in big spots, but with only 30 in the field he’ll definitely be popular one way or the other.

Spieth is coming into the finale sitting in first place and a good chance at ten million dollars, and off three excellent weeks of solo second, solo second, T7. He shot a fourth-round 65 at the BMW last week to push his way back up which was a good sign both of his pure talent, and that he can find it at any time.

Spieth is 2^nd on Tour in strokes gained: tee to green, and is a stud from 150-200 yards; outside 200 he struggles, so Spieth will have to bomb it a bit which may come back to bite him – the main concern with Jordan is he can be a little reckless with his accuracy which is less than ideal at East Lake, but he’s been better of late in that regard and is so good after his tee shots that his struggles may be moot.

Value Picks (Below $7600):

• Brian Harman ($6300): A large part of bogey avoidance this week will come from avoiding three putts, given the talent levels of 2017’s best 30 overall golfers in getting to the green in regulation. Luckily, Brian Harman is the second-best golfer in the field at putting on Bermuda in terms of Strokes Gained, and is no slouch when it comes to scrambling – another big factor in avoiding bogeys. This week will be vastly different from last week in that a score of 500 will win (500 would have maybe min-cashed last week), so position points will have a big impact; Harman may not shoot a 59 in his life, but he’s effective at avoiding bogeys (T29th) and with his putting skills could get some longer birdies to drop.

He’s struggled outside 200 yards, but has been good from 175-200 so the talent level does exist, and he sits a very solid 28^th on Tour in par-4 scoring (66^th in P4BoB%). At only $6300 and surrounded by Kyle Stanley and Adam Hadwin, Harman could conceivably slip under the cracks and be one of the lower-owned options.

• Other value picks:
  • Russell Henley ($6600): After a week of Xander Schauffele chalk that hit, Henley should also slip in ownership being priced right beside “X gon give it to ya”. Much like Harman, Henley is an excellent putter on Bermuda and tends to have his best performances there (he won on Shell which is almost a hybrid, but technically Bermuda).
  • Adam Hadwin ($6200): Hadwin will feature here again mainly thanks to his hot putter. Hadwin only finished T40 last week, but bested most of the golfers in the 12-40 range thanks to his 21 birdies (T5), and may finish poorly again here but score enough to justify his basement price.

Good luck this week and thanks for a great season! You can follow me on Twitter @adalyfrey if you have any questions, and my DMs are always open.