The First Tee – Tour Championship

The FexEx Cup wraps up the season at East Lake with the TOUR Championship, a 30-man, no-cut field which will put a lot of stars & scrubs build into the picture. Put more of a focus on birdie-makers this week than finish position.

FULL DISCLOSURE: I’m personally not playing because a 30-man event is suboptimal for a one-lineup player, and I would typically recommend calling it a season unless there’s a lot of overlay.

THE COURSE

Scores here are typically in the -8 to -12 range, with the best score ever recorded here a whopping -23 from Tiger back in 2007 – this final score was a full ten strokes higher than any winning score since then, with Henrik Stenson’s -13 ranking second best over the past 11 years. Golfers can still make bogeys or worse, but birdie-making is crucial to DFS success more than most weeks thanks to the small field and no-cut setup.

East Lake is a par-70 listed at 7385 yards, with the two par-5s being easy scoring holes – last year they averaged -0.567 and -0.508, with a combined ten eagles and 121 birdies to just 12 bogeys. Scoring here is imperative, although the 18^th is harder to get eagle chances at as it’s listed at 590 yards and water can come into play on the right. 75% of the par-4s are longer, beyond 440 yards, with the toughest hole a brutal 520 yards that saw only six birdies last year, and the four par-3s are mostly straight-forward but long.

Golfers tend to pull driver here thanks to the length of the course, but there are narrow fairways – just 24 yards across at the 300-yard marker, with the 250-300 range offering the widest areas of the fairway; over time this has led to a lot of missed fairways, but the rough is fairly thin and easy to hit out of, so as long as the drive ends up no worse than the primary cut, missing the fairway isn’t too penal.

With the longer par-4s, most golfers will have approach shots in the 175+ range, and it’ll be important to adjust that depending on who is getting targeted; the best long drivers could look in the 150-175 range, while the average golfer should be looking more at the 175-200 or even beyond 200 range.

The Bermuda greens here are firm and fast, and of average size. They’re actually fairly straight-forward once on, but missed greens are costly, and it’s not the easiest course to get onto the green on thanks to the firmness and Georgia heat – 65.14% GIR last year. Targeting strong putters in general and strong putters outside 10’ is always a good idea here.

The Stats

The Strokes Gained stats to focus on in order (not including Tee to Green) – TEE TO GREEN HAS MORE EMPHASIS THAN NORMAL:

• Approach
• Putting
• Off-The-Tee
• Around the Green

Counting stats to focus on in order:

• Par-4 Birdie or Better
• Greens in Regulation %
• Driving Accuracy / Distance from Edge of the Fairway
• Approach Outside 175 Yards
• Scrambling

The Golfers

With a small field, I’ll skip full write-ups and just do pros/cons of four golfers, one from each salary tier.

$10,000 and up – Justin Rose ($11,400)

Pros: In his eight events here, Rose has shot below par in 21 rounds (out of 32) including six 66s, leading him to five top-10s and two runner-up finishes. In 18 events on the year (all tours) Rose has finished the top-10 ten times and in the top-25 15 times, with only the one missed cut on the year coming a couple weeks ago when his putter stopped working. He’s both long (40^th) and accurate (35^th) off the tee, is actually under par when hitting out of the rough, and has the second-best BoB%.

Cons: The highest-priced golfer in the field always makes fitting him in a little tougher, and even then he’ll still see some ownership thanks to his skill level/history here/recent form. On approaches outside 200 yards, Rose ranks 80^th in proximity to the hole and 40^th relative to par, which are awful numbers compared to the rest of his approach ranges; it’s not expected he’ll need to hit it there often, but it’s not helpful for the longer par-4s.

$8,500 to $10,000 – Tony Finau ($8,600)

Pros: Tremendously large and tremendously wet long off the tee, Finau’s natural length fits this course very well; Finau ranks 3^rd in Driving Distance and 15^th in approaches outside 200 yards, but his key range this week is 150-175 and 175-200 where he ranks 49^th and 4^th respectively. On approaches overall, Finau has gained the 24^th-most strokes per round. Most importantly, Finau is a huge birdie-maker: 11^th-best BoB% on par-4s and 7^th-best on par-5s, and he averages 4.15 birds per round.

Cons: He’s only played here once, last year – although he finished T7 with a -7, and he should see extremely high ownership this week given his recent form and scoring. His putting isn’t “Luke List” bad but he ranks 71^st in SG: Putting and suffers on looks outside 10’, and when he misses the green he’s extraordinarily bad – especially when he hits the sand. He’s not the most accurate off the tee to put it mildly, but he’s still only 26^th relative to par from the rough.

$6,900 to $8,500 – Tommy Fleetwood ($7,900)

Pros: With his price point, Fleetwood has a ton of upside: 13^th in SG: Tee to Green, 7^th in birdie average/6^th in BoB%, and extremely good on par-4s and -5s. He’s a long hitter off the tee and should be able to take advantage of shorter holes, as he’s -25 on approaches between 125-150 (5^th), and -24 on approaches between 150-175 yards (2^nd). Decent putter outside 10’.

Cons: No course history. Bad when he’s hitting out of the rough – 174^th relative to par, 120^th in terms of proximity – and he misses the fairway ~36% of the time. His one-putt percentage isn’t ideal at 35.75% (168^th) and he’s just an average player on par-3s; relative to Fleetwood’s skill level, average is a bad thing.

$6,900 and below – Gary Woodland ($6,700)

Pros: On a longer course with narrow fairways, Woodland’s SG: Off the Tee ranking of 3^rd is very strong, and with the bulk of the field missing fairways, Woodland’s ranking of 12^th relative to par out of the rough is very solid. He’s 19^th in SG: Approach and is a big-time birdie-or-eagle maker, 32^nd overall in BoB% and has the length to make the rare par-5 eagle at this course.

Cons: His course history isn’t the prettiest, with a T9 being the highlight, although he has nine rounds under par including a 63. His driving accuracy is less than ideal at 62.94%, and his play both around the green and on the green is bad to put it mildly. Woodland is 113^th in SG: Putting and only one-putts 33% of the time.

Good luck this week and thanks for a great season! You can follow me on Twitter @adalyfrey if you have any questions.