The First Tee – The Wyndham Championship

This Week

The last event before the playoffs, the Wyndham Championship is mostly interesting to watch the bubble players in the 115-140 range on the money list, to see who can slip into the top-125 to retain their PGA card. What that means is a weaker field where Webb Simpson is the betting favourite, and DFS darlings like Morikawa, Wolff and Hovland are all priced-up.

The Course

The Wyndham Championship is played at Sedgefield Country Club in Greensboro, North Carolina and is a birdie-fest with easy-to-hit greens but narrow fairways. It’s a par-70 listed at 7124 yards, with some of the easiest par-3s and -5s on tour – the scoring average on the par-3s over the past five years (NOTE: the tournament wasn’t played in 2017 due to flooding) hasn’t been worse than 2.99.

For a course that averages over a stroke below par, there obviously aren’t many trouble holes here: last year, four of the five par-4s above 440 yards played above par, as well as the longest of the par-3s. Making birdie on the par-4s is so important this week – especially given it’s a par-70 – and is usually accomplished by good iron play in the 175-200 yard range.

Off the course, golfers will be looking at narrow fairways pocketed with tough bunkers, but not much else in the way of hazards as there’s no water and the trees that line the course are very spread-out. At the 275- and 300-yard marker, the course averages 28- and 26-yards across, so golfers will usually keep driver in the bag; the average distance off the tee here is in the low 280s, and even then fairways only get hit at a 59-61% clip.

The rough here isn’t much to speak of, which is part of why so many greens still get hit (74.25% last year) even if the fairways don’t. The other aspect that makes the greens easy to hit is the angles in, as basically every approach shot will be straight.

Golfers will be shooting into smaller-than-average greens that play firm and fast – especially in North Carolina heat – and they feature lots of undulation and plateauing. The greens are Champion Bermuda and very tough, ranking 11^th-toughest or harder every year in putting average, three-putt avoidance and one-putt percentage. Good putters should get a bump this week.

Comparable courses/events:

Trinity Forest (AT&T Byron Nelson) – Greens in regulation are hit at a similar clip, and lots of birdies made at both tracks. Tough Bermuda greens (comparable three-putt % and putting averages). Similar length when accounting for the difference in par, with Trinity being a par-71.

Stadium Course (Part of the Desert Classic rotation) – Short off the tee with narrow fairways, so less-than-driver off the tee. Lots of greens in regulation, and similar Bermuda greens. Major difference is Stadium is a par-72 that’s 100 yards shorter, so length is very different.

TPC Scottsdale (Waste Management Phoenix Open) – More of a bomber’s track than Sedgefield, but the scoring is comparable in terms of scoring average and birdies/round. Tricky Bermuda greens that play fast much like this week, and easy par-3s.

Augusta National (The Masters) – Not in terms of the course setup, but similar leaderboards when looking at historical winners (Reed, Sergio) and contenders (Moore, Spieth).

STATS

The Strokes Gained stats to focus on in order (not including Tee to Green):

• Approach
• Putting
• Off-the-Tee
• Around the Green

Counting stats to focus on in order:

• Par-4 Birdie or Better %
• Approach Shots: 175-200 Yards (150-175 for the longer drivers)
• Distance from the Center of the Fairway / Driving Accuracy %
• Three-Putt Avoidance
• Scrambling

Top-Tier Golfers

Collin Morikawa ($10400): Fresh off a win at the alternate-event Barracuda, Morikawa costs a pretty penny this week – he’s more of a gambling favourite than Jordan Spieth! – but he’s been very impressive in his short career so far, with his worst finish in six events played coming at the Traveler’s, a T36. He’s finished first, T4 and T2 in his last three events, and all three came at similarly-easy courses with similarly-easy competition.

He’s still yet to meet the number of measured rounds to qualify statistically on the PGA site, but in 20 measured rounds he’s demonstrated what it takes to find success at Sedgefield:

• 1^st in SG: Approach / 1^st in Greens in Regulation (73.06%)
• 2^nd in SG: Tee to Green
• 24^th in Driving Accuracy (68.57%) – because he doesn’t qualify, there’s no ranking in “distance from center”
• 1^st in Par-4 BoB% / 3.88 Par-4 Scoring Average
• 39% overall BoB%, 4.6 birdies/round

The one caveat on these stats, beyond the small sample, is that he’s put these numbers up at the Canadian Open, Traveler’s Championship, Barracuda, 3M Open and John Deere Classic – not exactly PGA National or Copperhead. That’ll give him an obvious bump given this schedule is more like a fall swing season than anything else.

 

Chez Reavie ($9400): He has three missed cuts here which could help keep his ownership low – especially relative to his price point, as his price tag is more prohibitive than a regular week – but he’s also picked up finishes of T37 (last year), T58, T9 and T10, and is coming off a T27 at the WGC, a win at the Traveler’s and a T3 at the US Open although he also missed at the Open and the Rocket Mortgage Classic.

Reavie’s short, accurate play sets up well at Sedgefield, and his T4 and T28 at TPC Scottsdale and the Desert Classic respectively help bear that out. Reavie ranks second in both Driving Accuracy % and Distance from the Center of the Fairway, so he should find himself in good positions off the tee even if he’s much shorter than average; that strong positional play has seen him hit 67% of greens in regulation so far, and he sits 8^th and 12^th in Approach Shots: 150-175 and 175-200 Yards, respectively. He’s a great par-4 player (3.98 scoring average, 18.6% BoB%) and overall is averaging 3.95 birdies/round, which is a step up from where he’s been historically – his performance on par-5s has greatly improved, although he’s not the guy to look to for an eagle.

Others: Adam Hadwin ($8500), Rory Sabbatini ($9200)

 

Value Golfer (below $8000)

Adam Long ($6500): Long hasn’t played Sedgefield before so there’s no history to look at, but his surprise win came at the Desert Classic which features the comparable Stadium Course. He’s coming off a T24 at the WGC last week and a made cut at the John Deere Classic, but overall his form this year has been inconsistent to put it mildly; that obviously impacts his stats, so he’s a very boom/bust proposition this week on purely statistical merit.

All that to be said, Long’s a mini-version of Chez Reavie, as he’s short but accurate off the tee (fourth in Distance from the Center of the Fairway, 66.35% of fairways hit) with strong proximity numbers – he ranks 27^th in overall proximity to the hole and has positive SG: Approach numbers (+.122/round, 88^th).

Russell Henley ($7800): Henley’s form is ramping up with a T15 last week at the Barracuda following a solo second at the John Deere Classic, and although his short history here is mixed (MC last year, T46 in 2016), his game suits the course and this year he put up a T35 at Trinity Forest and a T15 at TPC Scottsdale.

Henley’s an accurate golfer off the tee (11^th in Accuracy %, 14^th in Distance from the Center of the Fairway) and his iron play has been above-average, ranking 44^th and 37^th in SG: Approach and Greens in Regulation percentage respectively; he’s typically better with wedges and shorter irons, but he ranks 70^th in approaches from 175-200 and has the 21^st-best proximity overall. Henley’s better on par-4s than anything else and has a woeful par-5 BoB%, but that’s mostly down to his poor putting. His putter is losing on average 0.318 strokes/round, but historically Henley is much better on Bermuda greens – he gained strokes putting in Phoenix and ranked 56^th putting at Trinity Forest.

Others: Abraham Ancer ($7700), Kevin Streelman ($7800)

Pushing for a top-125 with DFS appeal: Patton Kizzire #126 ($6300), Daniel Berger #127 ($7400), Andrew Landry #128 ($6800), Sebastian Munoz #129 ($7000), Hank Lebioda #141 ($6300)

 

You can follow me on Twitter @adalyfrey and good luck this week!