The First Tee – The Players Championship by Adam Daly
This Week
The so-called ‘fifth major’ (which is horseshit, Deane Beman) is upon us this week, as the Tour rolls into Ponde Verde, Florida for the PLAYERS championship at TPC Sawgrass. This will be the first week with a great field since the Masters, with 48 of the top-50 ranked golfers in the world teeing it up.
The Course
TPC Sawgrass has seen some changes since the 2016 playing, with renovations taking place almost immediately after Jason Day was crowned the champion:
- The greens have been updated with TifEagle Bermuda
- Rough in areas has been taken out and replaced with pine straw
- A new water hazard has been put in between holes 6 and 7
- The 12th hole has been revamped in a large way – shortened to make it a driveable par-4, the straw and trees on the left have been removed, replaced with a pond in place on the left that the green slopes towards. Very high-risk, high-reward, which means some beautiful double circles upcoming as well as some double squares.
These updates will give a fresh face to what is already one of the most beautiful courses in the world, and were all given the go-ahead by 91-year old original designer, Pete Dye.
The PLAYERS has one of the most exciting finishes in golf, as the 16th, 17th and 18th are where golfers’ weeks are made or broken – the par-5 16th is the shortest par-5 of the week at just 523 yards, and is typically the easiest hole on the course (played at -0.414 in 2016), sometimes averaging more birdies than pars. Following that is the iconic par-17th at just 137 yards that requires a wedge into an island green that saw 66 bogeys or worse last year, but for all the pomp and circumstance at 17, it’s actually the 18th that has the biggest impact. The 18th is a par-4 at 462 yards, and has been the hardest hole on the course over the last two years – the entire left side of the fairway is water, which has led to double digit double bogeys on this dogleg left.
The course is now listed as a 7,189 yard par-72, with four par-3s and four par-5s – three of the par-5s will be reachable in two, and the four par-3s range from 137 yards all the way up to 237 yards. The par-3s are a great representation of what’s needed to succeed on the overall course, as they demand pinpoint accuracy and excellent iron play. All four par-3s have hazards in their own way, either with actual water hazards or green-side bunkers that will cause lots of problems.
A course as picturesque as TPC Sawgrass doesn’t come without its hazards, and it has that in spades with water on practically every hole. Off the tee, golfers will have to contend with tree-lined fairways over pine straw, undulating rolling fairways, and lots of the aforementioned water. Because of all that, the safest decision is taking driver out of play, sacrificing distance for accuracy – naturally longer hitters will have an advantage, but don’t count on seeing many 320+ yard drives this week.
Accuracy off the tee will be important, but the fairways are undulating so even a well-placed tee shot could find trouble with tough lies for approach shots. The most common approach shot distance over the last five years has been above 200 yards, which makes sense given that driver isn’t typically in play – although not weighted highly, that’s one of the stats to check out this week.
The new Tifeagle Bermuda should be very firm with the greens getting replaced just eight months ago, which will make it tough to hold approach shots this week – greens in regulation is a key here because it means the ball stayed out of hazards (bogey avoidance is big), but firm greens could set up long putts. The greens are already undulating and tiered, typical of a Pete Dye design, so expect lots of two-putts or worse. Last year’s stimpmeter was listed by the Tour at 13’, and about the same can be expected this year – the greens are always very quick here (check Twitter to see what it’s listed at for this year).
Stats
LARGEST CORRELATIONS | |
SG T2G | 66.77% |
Bogey Avoidance | 60.81% |
Birdie Or Better | 56.35% |
SG APP | 48.14% |
Total Putts Gained | 45.47% |
Greens in Regulation % | 45.19% |
SG OTT | 34.29% |
SG ARG | 33.78% |
Putts per Hole | 29.98% |
Putting 10-25′ | 25.38% |
The Strokes Gained stats to focus on in order (not including Tee to Green):
- Approach
- Putting
- Off-The-Tee
- Around the Green
Counting stats to focus on in order:
- Bogey Avoidance
- Birdie or Better %
- Greens in Regulation %
- Par-4 Scoring
- Approaches from 200+ Yards
- Putting from inside 10-25’
The Event
The PLAYERS is one of the more interesting tournaments given its field, the weight thrown behind it by the PGA Tour (“fifth major”, located at the PGA Tour HQ, endless commercials on PGA Tour LIVE, etc),and the beauty of the course.
Last year’s winner Jason Day took the championship down with a final score of -16, and expect that to be close to the winning score this year – from 2009 to 2016, the score has bounced between -9 (Stenson, 2009) and Day’s -16. There will be lots of birdies, but also lots of bogeys, so DraftKings scores won’t be astronomical – ~115DK points to the winner.
One of the interesting statistics thrown out there by Russell Whalen (@NYCPunter) was that, Tiger excluded, no golfer has won the Masters and the PLAYERS in the same season. As well, there are lots of boom/bust players at Sawgrass: Rickie Fowler has a win and a 2nd to his name, with multiple missed cuts, Kevin Na has three top-10s but three missed cuts, and the list goes on.
The Golfers
The Core
Justin Thomas ($8900): Although he’s only played the track twice, JT calls the PLAYERS his favorite event on Tour (non-major), and has the short course history to show for it with a top-25 his first time out followed by a T3 last year. On courses where he doesn’t have the opportunity to spray his driver all over the course (54.68% Driving Accuracy), Thomas is always an immediate consideration given how strong the rest of his game plays. He has the highest birdie average (4.89) and sits first in Birdie or Better % which always bodes well for DraftKings, but more importantly he’s been a stud on approach. JT is currently 16th or better in Greens in Regulation, Strokes Gained: Approach, and Proximity to the Hole, which offers a nice snapshot of just how well he’s been playing after the tee shot. One warning is that at this soft price point, expect Thomas to be highly owned.
Russell Henley ($8200): 16th in Bogey Avoidance is a good place to start for the Georgia native, who’s been having an excellent year on Tour – 1st at the Shell Houston Open, and top-10s at Valspar and the RSM – and should easily continue that here. Much like Thomas, Henley has shown an excellent approach game this year, hitting 71.20% of his greens in regulation (14th) and is a top-60 golfer in every approach range including the ever-important 200+ yards. Henley is a stud on the greens – more specifically, Bermuda greens – and has made 37.74% of his putts between 10-15’ (25th) on his way to the 7th best Strokes Gained: Putting on Tour. Although he missed the cut here last year, Henley was T24 in 2015 and T17 in 2014, so there’s some good course history at play as well.
Jordan Spieth ($10800): After a week where the talk was Dustin Johnson’s (almost) triumphant return to the links, it’s easy for most to forget just how good Jordan Spieth actually is. Although he won’t go under the radar in terms of ownership (by any stretch), it’s important to reiterate his talents that translate to this course:
- 1st in SG: Approach
- T1 in Bogey Avoidance
- 2nd in Birdie or Better %
- 5th in Par-4 Scoring
Although the flat stick hasn’t been up to his typical world-beating standards, Spieth still sits 31st in SG: Putting, and his poor ranking for putts made inside 10-15’ is easily explained by small sample size. Just like Thomas, with the driver out of his hand this week, Spieth has a great opportunity to win just on approach alone.
The Fade
Just a small note here – I play one lineup, so every week I’m fading the full field minus six, just by virtue of only using one lineup. The Fade of the Week is thus chosen for expected value vs. expected ownership, NOT because they’re necessarily good or bad plays.
Jason Day ($10000): Although it’s very appealing to get Jason Day as a “sneaky” play with his price coming as only the fifth-highest, back-to-back champions don’t happen at the PLAYERS. Day has yet to show that he’s regained his world number one form, coming T22 at Augusta and his best finish coming back at Pebble Beach with a T5. His putting stroke isn’t at the same level as last year, and although Day is typically a slow starter, by this time last season he’d already won twice (Arnold Palmer, Dell Match Play) and was entering off a T5 at the Zurich rather than a missed cut like this year. He won’t be highly owned so he’s worth a sprinkle if maxing out lineups, but stay underweight on the underwhelming Aussie.
You can follow me on Twitter @adalyfrey, and if there’s something you’d like to see change in this column my DMs are open! Good luck this week