The First Tee – The Players Championship

The Tour rolls into Ponde Verde, Florida this week for the PLAYERS championship at TPC Sawgrass, the so-called “fifth major.” This is always one of the stronger fields on Tour given that the winner gets a five-year exemption to tour events and three-year exemptions to all of the Majors – to say nothing of the 10.5-million-dollar purse.

One note on DraftKings pricing this week: it is Charmin soft. With a great field, some of the names below $8000 are astounding (to say nothing about how soft it is above 9k): Brooks Koepka, Louis Oosthuizen, Patrick Cantlay, Tony Finau, Adam Scott, etc. Consider differentiating this week by leaving a lot of salary left over.

From 2009 to 2017, the winning score has bounced between -9 (Stenson, 2009) and -15 (Day, 2016). Last year, Si Woo Kim won with a -10, while the cut came at +3; this is a course where the cut can sit anywhere between -1 and +3, but last year played extraordinarily tough thanks to the re-design of the course and some weather.

There are lots of boom/bust players at Sawgrass: Rickie Fowler has a win and a 2^nd to his name, with multiple missed cuts, Kevin Na has three top-10s but three missed cuts, and the list goes on. Don’t put too much emphasis on course history, and a gentle reminder that no player (beyond Eldrick) has won the PLAYERS and the Masters in the same year before.

The Course

Last year was the first since the 2016 re-design (approved by but not done by Pete Dye), and the course played 1.24 strokes tougher on average. Some notable stat changes from the 2017 version compared to earlier years:

• Proximity to the hole was 42’1” (second-hardest on Tour), a full five feet further than in any of the previous five years
• Birdie average of only 3.25; five years prior saw averages of 3.77, 3.57, 3.58, 3.64, 3.60
• Par-3 scoring average jumped to 3.20, while it’s average ~3.10 between 2012-16

As a reminder, some of the changes made to TPC Sawgrass were new Tifeagle Bermuda greens (which will always make proximity harder, as new greens stay hard), pine straw in place of rough on some holes, a large water hazard between 6 & 7, and the 12^th getting changed completely into a high-risk/high-reward hole.

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TPC Sawgrass now plays as a 7189-yard par-72, with four par-5s between 523- and 583-yards, and three par-4s below 400 yards. The driveable par-4 12^th sits at just 302 and is one of just five holes on the course to average below par – the other four holes below par being the par-5s. Three of the par-5s are reachable in two and saw a combined 35 eagles last year (one ace on 17 and two eagles on 12) and are some of the only holes on the course where driver should be pulled.

The real focus from a “hole type” perspective would be Par-3 Scoring/Birdie or Better %, as these are the make-or-break holes on the course; specifically, look at players that have performed well on the -3s in past, as the makeup of the holes is also a strong representation of what’s needed to succeed on Sawgrass in general; the par-3s demand pinpoint accuracy and excellent mid-iron play – especially the short 17^th, the peninsula green that’s the highlight hole of the PLAYERS.

Off the tee, golfers will have to contend with lots of water in play, and tree-lined fairways and pine straw. As well, the fairways at Sawgrass feature lots of undulation. With those factors and the overall length of most holes in mind, taking driver out of play and sacrificing distance for accuracy tends to be the play here. The All Drives average distance over the years tends to sit between 275 and 285 yards, while accuracy is fairly steady around 61%, with most misses going right thanks to the shape of the holes.

Accuracy off the tee always matters, but the fairways are undulating so even a well-placed tee shot could find trouble with tough lies for approach shots.  Focusing on golfers that excel at approach shots with longer irons is pertinent, as the most common approach shot distance over the last five years has been above 200 yards given that driver isn’t typically in play off the tee.

The Bermuda greens should be more receptive than last year but prepare for longer putts again this year; the greens here run very quick, listed at 13’ last year on the stimpmeter, and the green surfaces themselves feature lots of undulation and tiering as is typical for a Dye design. For golfers that miss the green, the ability to scramble is an absolute necessity – only 51% of missed greens saved par last year, fourth-hardest on Tour (Quail Hollow was 48%).

The Stats

The Strokes Gained stats to focus on in order (not including Tee to Green):

• Approach
• Putting
• Off-The-Tee
• Around the Green

Counting stats to focus on in order:

• Bogey Avoidance
• Greens in Regulation %
• Par-3 Scoring
• Approaches from 200+ Yards
• Scrambling
• Putting outside 10’

Top-Tier Golfer

Jason Day ($10800): Coming off his second win of the year, Day will look to continue a great year at a track he’s had some success at: beyond his win in 2016, he’s also picked up finishes of T19 and T6 and out of his 22 rounds he’s played, half of them have been below par which is strong at Sawgrass. His form is one of the best at the moment, with last week’s win being the most recent highlight, but he’s also yet to miss a cut in seven events and has finished in the top-25 in five of those – including a T2 at Pebble Beach.

Although his SG: Approach rank is nothing short of Web.com Tour levels, Day is still 12-under par from outside 200 yards (out of 59 attempts). His iron struggles are the one major, major argument for not using JDay this week, as his overall proximity ranks are horrendous – as close to DFL as it gets.

Beyond those struggles though, Day should smash competition this week thanks to his incredible play both on and around the greens: he’s the 13^th-best scrambler (65.73%) and 4^th in SG: Around the Green (0.603), the best putter by strokes gained and inside 10’ at 93.24%, and he’s converted birdie or better with the putter 36.92% of the time (4^th best). With scrambling such an important factor and birdie-making so key for DFS scoring – Day averages 4.46 birdies per round – expect Day to be in a winning lineup. He should also see lower ownership as the prices are so soft and people tend to ignore last week’s winner in DFS.

Other golfers to consider:

Bryson DeChambeau ($8300) – Pros: 6^th-most efficient outside 200 yards on approach, 14^th SG: Tee to Green, big-time scorer (4.26 birdies/round) especially on par-5s (2^nd-best P5 scoring average). Has probably played TPC Sawgrass on a golf simulator (this is a joke). Cons: struggles at scrambling, struggles at putting, bad on par-3s. Hasn’t played here in his career.

Dustin Johnson ($10300) – Pros: Best in class off the tee and from tee-to-green, big-time scorer (1^st in holes per eagle / 2^nd in birdie average), can hold his own around the greens, hits 70% of greens in regulation. Finished T12 here in 2017 and is still the number one player in the world – has five top-10 finishes in only eight events. Cons: Only has one top-25 finish here, the aforementioned T12 last year. Doesn’t really score on par-3s, poor proximity from outside 200 yards although efficiency is good. Notes: he would be my second pick to win after Day.

Tiger Woods ($8600) – Pros: 4^th-most efficient approach outside 200 yards, can leave driver in bag (110^th in SG: Off the Tee), still 17^th SG: Tee to Green even with such poor play off the tee. Two wins and five top-10s here. Cons: also horrible on par-3s this year even with great iron play, has been putting with the spirit of both Luke List and Adam Scott inside him. Hasn’t played Sawgrass since 2015 which means he didn’t deal with the course renovations.

 

Value Golfer (below $8000)

Emiliano Grillo ($7500): With a cooperative putter, Grillo has had a fantastic year so far: six top-25s and only one missed cut in eleven events played – which came in team play in New Orleans – with four of those top-25s being top-10 finishes. Grillo is entering the week off three straight finishes of T16 or better if you ignore the team play, including a T9 at Quail Hollow last week and a T3 at the Houston Open. From a course history perspective, Grillo has finished 11^th last year (-3) but missed the cut in 2016 thanks to a second-day 75; in six rounds, he’s been below par three times.

With his putter going, Grillo now checks a lot of boxes statistically:

• 13^th SG: Off the Tee – thanks to a nice Driving Accuracy of 69%
• 33^rd SG: Approach – 36^th in Proximity from outside 200 yards, 28-under par from that range
• T4 in Par-3 Scoring – averaging par on par-3s this year, Grillo also makes birdie or better 17.31% of the time on P3s
• 49^th in Scrambling – 62.01% which would be a great feat on a tough course for missed greens
• 41^st SG: Putting – considering his 2017 end-of-year rank of 139^th in this category, he’s come a long way

Grillo is a naturally shorter hitter, but he still hits fairways at a great clip even when he pulls driver; on a course where the bulk of the field will leave driver in the bag, his normal disadvantage of being short off the tee is mitigated in a big way. His ownership should stay relatively low given all the low-priced bigger names around him, and he should pop this week.

Other golfers to consider:

Rafa Cabrera-Bello ($7400) – Pros: Accurate but short off the tee, approach stud (7^th SG: Approach), strong on par-3s (T22 Scoring, 17^th BoB%), finds all the greens (70.75%), T4 here last year. Cons: Poor scrambling and putting numbers (112^th in both Scrambling% and SG: Putting), can’t stay away from three-putts (190^th, 4%), MC here in 2016.

Brendan Steele ($7200) – Pros: 29^th-best in Strokes Gained: Approach and an absolute monster off the tee (4^th-best), hitting 71% of greens, scores well thanks to his distance off the tee. T6 here last year. Cons: Four missed cuts here, always bad around the greens – hasn’t averaged any strokes gained in that category since 2014 – and a poor putter.

Bud Cauley ($7000) – Pros: 25-under par on approaches outside 200 yards (36^th), strong around and on the greens – 33^rd SG: Around the Greens, 24^th SG: Putting, his best holes are par-3s. Cons: For a short hitter he’s still inaccurate off the tee, and he’s been horrible with an 8-iron to wedge. Hasn’t played here since 2013, missed cut both times he’s played it.

You can follow me on Twitter @adalyfrey – my DMs are no longer open, sorry – and good luck this week!