The First Tee – The Open Championship by Adam Daly

Keying up for the third Major of the year, the Open Championship – don’t call it the British Open – comes back to Royal Birkdale in Southport, England for the 10th time in its history. With an obviously stacked field, time zone differences, and links golf, this is one of the most frustrating events – but is also incredibly fun to watch and tilt.

Just a reminder: the Open is Top-70 and ties, so no weird Augusta 10 shots rule and no reduced field cut like the U.S. Open – just like a regular week.

The Course

Royal Birkdale is a fairly standard links golf course in many ways – coastal, hilly, wide open to the elements, blind shots, and many well-placed bunkers. The main difference between Royal Birkdale and a typical links course is the fairways, where on a typical links course they’ll be undulating and leave tough lies with balls below or above golfers’ feet, at Royal Birkdale the fairways are mostly flat which will make it relatively easier on approach.

The course sits at 7,156 yards as a par-70, and as mentioned has hosted the Open nine previous times. Not that there are many golfers in the field with enough course history to make a real impact (this is the third time played here in 19 years), but anything pre-2008 was on a completely different course – RB had thousands of trees removed after the 1998 iteration, and also underwent repositioning of both greens and bunkers.

This is something to keep in mind with Justin Rose, who finished T70 on this course in 2008; people may look to his T4 as an amateur in 1998, but it’ll be important to filter out that noise as it was essentially a different course. Also it was 19 years ago.

There are seven par-4s between 400 and 450 yards, so that will be the par-4 efficiency group to look from. Being a par-70, par-4 scoring will have a higher impact than par-3 or -5 regardless – with a winning score expected close to par, not making bogey on par-4s will go a long way towards victory. The four par-3s all sit between 177 and 200 yards, so looking at P3 Efficiency in that range will also be effective.

One of the features of Royal Birkdale beyond the typical links effects is the doglegs off the tee – there are some severe doglegs on this course, so being able to pick proper landing spots to set up good approaches is so important. Getting wild off the tee and spraying the ball just isn’t an option on these narrow fairways as the rough will be up and anything not in the fairway could end up in steep bunkers, heather or fescue, or face awfully tough lies not found on the flat fairways. Players won’t have to smash the ball, but there are definitely some holes on this course where a longer player will be able to carry over the doglegs to leave just a wedge to the green.

The bunkers at this course are plenty, and are plenty severe. They’re well-placed throughout fairways which will set up some tough approach shots, but are even tougher and more numerous around the greens; the post-1998 renovation saw the addition of 20 new bunkers and the re-positioning of 27 more, and what should have been a relatively easy Open in 2008 ended up with a +3 winner – the previous highest score had been Mark O’Meara’s E in 1998. The re-bunkering went a long way towards hurting scores, and was maybe the biggest factor after the removal of the trees (there were 20mph winds that week).

If the ball finds the fairway – and weather cooperates – Royal Birkdale is actually a pretty straight-forward course from approach to the bottom of the cup: with no tough lies, receptive greens that don’t offer as much slope as some other courses, and at relatively short distances, just hitting it straight with an iron or wedge is all that’s needed. There are some definite hazard areas in and around the greens (dunes, some run-offs, etc.), so usually the safest play is to aim for the dead centre of the green and take chances with the putter.

Once on the bentgrass greens, golfers will find some tiered greens and undulation, but again this is a fairly standard test for most professional golfers. Speed-wise, don’t expect them to be “glacially” slow like Royal Troon was (10’), but anywhere from 11-12 should be expected. The Open tends to like slower greens as a ‘tougher’ test of putting, which really neutralizes putting advantages for all but the elite.

As on any course that’s open to the elements, the X factor this week will definitely be the weather; a very calm week could push scores here around four or five strokes below par, while getting winds up around the 20mph range like in 2008 will give a premium to players that flight the ball low. Without knowing exactly what the weather will do, by default look for low launch angle hitters – or make it a deciding factor when comparing two comparable players. The other X factor for Open Championships tends to be age, with older golfers usually seizing the day and the Claret Jug by Sunday’s end; a large part of winning an Open is being crafty and smart enough to work around the course without getting in trouble, and these courses tend to demand experience.

 

Stats

A lot of what was expected (by me) at Erin Hills should come to pass at Royal Birkdale this week – the width of the fairways in Wisconsin were a major misjudgement on my part, but there are certain similarities in the stats to look to this week.

The Strokes Gained stats to focus on in order (not including Tee to Green):

• Approach
• Off-The-Tee
• Putting
• Around the Green

Counting stats to focus on in order:

• Bogey Avoidance
• Driving Accuracy %
• Greens in Regulation %
• Launch Angle – any time the wind can be a major factor, golfers that shoot low angle drives won’t be as impacted by the wind. On a coastal course with no trees, Royal Birkdale will definitely be impacted by the wind.
• Par-4 Efficiency 400-450 Yards
• Driving Distance – although GD% covers distance, Driving Distance on its own has a major correlation with making Birdie or Better and is obviously important this week where they’ll be rare.

 

The Golfers

Paul Casey ($8100) – Casey was a write-up to play at the U.S. Open but unfortunately lost his putting stroke yet again, which will make him a tough play to stomach – and he will come with some ownership after finishing T7 here in ’08 and sitting at a reasonable price.

That putting stroke may yet be the death of both Paul Casey and the DFS players that keep playing him, but he’s had decent approach putt numbers this season which bodes well on a course where golfers won’t be pin-seeking – just turn the TV off of you see him standing over a 4’ putt.

With the putting caveat out of the way, there are so many aspects of Casey’s game that set him up very well for success here nine years later:

• Driving Accuracy 65.44 (43^rd)
• Greens in Regulation 70.70% (3^rd)
• Par-4 Scoring 3.97 (5^th)
• Bogey Avoidance 12.81% (T3)

Beyond just the statistical plusses, Casey can hit screamers off the tee and clearly can hit the fairway at an above average clip. That will put him in excellent position on approach, where he’s one of the elite golfers on both the PGA and Euro Tours – 7^th in Strokes Gained: Approach, and he’s excelled from longer distances. What that will mean for a mid-length hitter off the tee is that he can swap the driver out off the tee to find better success, and then smoke his irons off good lies to find the green.

Casey would be my pick to win, so offers excellent value at only $8100 on DraftKings. He’s had great success at Majors – 34 of 53 cuts made, and nine top-10s – and has looked great this season with a solo 6^th at Augusta and a 26^th just recently at Erin Hills.

Value Picks (Below $7600):

• Russell Henley ($7000): Has a good form off a T5 at the Greenbrier, finished T11 and T27 at the Masters and U.S. Open respectively, and has made the cut at the Open twice in four chances (including a T20 in 2015). He’s slightly above average at hitting fairways (64.66%), has a very low launch angle, and seems to have finally figured out how to putt on bentgrass greens after being a Bermuda specialist for years. He’ll go extremely low-owned with no chatter around him, and is elite at avoiding bogeys this season.
• Brandt Snedeker ($6800): Sneds will be extremely-highly owned this week as a value play with lots of acclaim surrounding him, as a guy who showed just how talented he is with his T9 at the U.S. Open and who fits a lot of the key characteristics. The crafty veteran doesn’t make bogeys but is hurt on most courses by a lack of distance – at Royal Birkdale, that won’t have a negative impact. Snedeker is consistently one of the best putters on Tour, sits as the 2^nd best on Approach from 125-150, and has had great success on coastal courses.
• Stewart Cink ($6300): Checks a lot of boxes:
  • Low launch – 10.23 degrees (140^th, which is good. The lower the better!)
  • Par-4 scoring – 9^th, 3.98
  • Bogey Avoidance – 32^nd, 15.08%
  • Approach – 13^th, 0.637 strokes gained
  • Crafty veteran – 44 years old, 22^nd year as a pro

He does struggle finding the fairway, but on a course where Cink can try to find the fairway with a long iron or a wood, he won’t have to try to keep up with the Joneses from a distance perspective.

The Fade – Adam Scott ($8800): Scott will be on a lot of rosters this week, as a sub-$9000 play that finished T16 here in 2008, but he should absolutely be faded. His putter went limp at Erin Hills as it is wont to do, and he can’t find the fairway to save his life this season. Although there are certain factors in his game (low ball flight, great with his irons) that would point to success here, expecting him to spend more than two rounds putting at a level he’s not used to is too much of an ask for a golfer that will be 20%+.

IMPORTANT CAVEAT: The First Tee fades are sitting at a 0.0% MC success rate this season, so your mileage may vary.

 

Good luck this week! You can follow me on Twitter @adalyfrey if you have any questions, and my DMs are always open