The First Tee – The Open Championship

This Week

For the first time since the 1950s, the Open will take place at Royal Portrush in Northern Ireland. The course previously hosted the Irish Open in 2012 (winning score of -18), but has since undergone renovations to lengthen the course and set it up to hold enough spectators to be Open-worthy.

As always, the pricing on both DFS sites is soft as the field is obviously strong, so there are many ways to skin a cat this week in terms of lineup construction.

THE COURSE

Royal Portrush GC is a par-71 that’ll play at 7337 yards, and is the typical links setup as would be expected for an Open Championship. The course is wide open to the elements as it’s directly on the ocean – so checking the weather (specifically the wind) on Wednesday evening prior to lock will be crucial – and has the other regular links features, such as rolling hilly fairways, thick fescue off the fairway, and tough bunkering (62 total).

The course has three short par-3s (between 177-194 yards) as well as a longer one at 236, three gettable par-5s in the 530-590 range, and five of the 11 par-4s play outside of 450 yards, so good mid-to-long iron play will be key on approach shots and the par-3s. Golfers will be hitting into often-slightly-elevated bentgrass greens that feature contouring as the main defense against approach shots, as the real defense of the course is the weather; if the weather is mild in terms of wind, golfers could easily go pin-hunting given how receptive the greens are.

Golfers will be need to hit the tee shot well to hit those approach shots, as the course features wide fairways but real trouble if the fairway gets missed: tricky pot bunkers, mounding, thick fescue, and OB sticks that are so tight to be almost claustrophobic. Driver will most likely stay in the bag for most golfers this week if the wind kicks up as expected, as the low ball flight of driving irons is a great way to combat the winds.

Comparable courses/events:

Full Rotation (The Open) – This is a bit of a cop-out, but Royal Portsrush should be very similar in nature to courses in the Open rotation: Carnoustie, Royal Birkdale, Royal Troon, St. Andrews, etc.

Shinnecock Hills (U.S. Open, 2018, 2004) – Although much longer than Royal Portrush, Shinnecock is a wide-open links course that’s exposed to the elements and rewards good tee shots. Comparatively penal courses in terms of OB areas / rough / bunkering.

Gullane G.C. (Scottish Open, 2018, 2015) – Gullane has the same rolling style featured here, and is also extremely exposed to the weather. The bunkering and rough are similar, as are the green setups; setup in terms of length and par were different (7133 and par-70).

STATS

The Strokes Gained stats to focus on in order (not including Tee to Green):

• Approach
• Putting
• Off-the-Tee
• Around the Green

Counting stats to focus on in order:

• Approach Shots: 175-200+ Yards
• Distance from the Center of the Fairway (or Driving Accuracy)
• Bogey Avoidance
• Par-4 Scoring
• Launch Angle (or Apex Height as they’re relatively similar), the lower the better
• Links history – this isn’t a stat, but at a relatively unknown course, success at similar links tracks helps

Top-Tier Golfers

Adam Scott ($8800): The main concern with Scott’s play so far this year is his relatively poor driving accuracy (61.4%, 115^th) – which speaks to how good the rest of his game is. He ranks 27^th, 9^th, 4^th and 23^rd in SG: OTT, SG: APP, SG: ARG and SG: Putting respectively, and comes in at sixth overall from tee to green; he’s averaging 4.28 birdies per round, is crushing the par-5s (second in scoring average and BoB%), and holding his head above water on par-4s as he ranks 53^rd and 59^th in scoring average and BoB respectively.

Scott’s got a very low launch angle and has had a ton of success across the pond, with only five missed cuts in 19 tries at the Open, the last missed cut coming back in 2009. He’s yet to win, but he’s picked up a solo second along with four other top-10 finishes, and he’s finished in the top-25 nine times overall. He hasn’t played since the US Open, but he’s in fine form as he’s only missed two stroke play cuts this year and is on a string of T7, 2, T8 at his last three events played.

Scott is a very affordable piece compared to his talent, and could see a decent chunk of ownership this week but he should be able to pay off his price tag with ease.

Gary Woodland ($8200): Woodland has never missed the cut at an Open Championship, although he’s typically in the middle of the pack – he’s played seven times and has only one top-25 finish. That’s fine though, as Woodland’s 2019 season has been his full coming-out party after he won the US Open, and he’s got the game off the tee to contend with Royal Portrush.

Woodland is a poor putter which won’t change this week (111^th in SG: Putting), but he ranks eighth from tee to green and actually leads the tour in birdie average at a whopping 4.70. He’s a big hitter who can still find a fairway – he’s 15^th in all drive distance and 67^th in accuracy at 64.9% – and a course where the optimal play is iron off the tee fits his eye perfectly as he should be able to hit fairways while still having an advantage with his length.

He’s a very impressive iron player, hitting the 10^th-most greens in regulation (70.37%) and with the 18^th-most strokes gained on approach, but it’s his play with mid-to-longer irons that really stands out:

• Approach Shots from 150-175 Yards : 24^th in proximity / 4^th relative to par (-20)
• Approach Shots from 175-200 Yards: 38^th in proximity / 58^th relative to par (E)
• Approach Shots Outside 200 Yards: 3^rd in proximity / 21^st relative to par (-40)

Gary can flight his ball down at will and hit stingers, so if the wind picks up he shouldn’t be as impacted as some of the field.

Others: Patrick Cantlay ($9000), Francesco Molinari ($9400), Xander Schauffele ($9500)

 

Value Golfer (below $8000)

Eddie Pepperell ($7600): In his two shots at the Open (2018 and 2015), the most interesting man on Twitter has made the cut in both with finishes of T49 at St. Andrews and T6 at Carnoustie. He’s had a tremendous year with only two missed cuts in 13 events played, and that includes a T43 at the Scottish Open and T4 at the Irish Open in the past two weeks; he has three top-10s overall on the year between the PGA and Euro Tour.

Unfortunately he hasn’t played much in North America (PLAYERS and RBC Heritage along with two WGC events, the Masters and PGA Championship) so his stats are mostly from the European Tour:

• 764 SG : Tee to Green / +.470 SG : Approach (ET)
• Scoring Average of 69.67 (ET)
• 94 Par-3 Scoring Average (ET), 18.18% Par-3 BoB% (PGA)
• 9% Fairways Hit (which is 32nd on the Euro Tour – he’s hit 65.26% on the PGA)
• -0.92 relative to par on Approach Shots Outside 200 Yards

Louis Oosthuizen ($8000): Oosty’s history at the Open is a bit of a mixed bag, with five missed cuts and a W/D in twelves tries, but a win and a T2 as highlights. He finished T28 last year at Carnoustie and picked up a T46 at the Irish Open last week, and has previously played well at the Dunhill Links Championships.

Statistically he’s no great prize at first look, as he’s only 57^th in SG: Tee to Green and a dismal 123^rd in Greens in Regulation, but Oosthuizen is deadly accurate off the tee and he’s aces on par-4s. He’s a shorter hitter off the tee – his average birdie made distance is 189.6 which is right in the wheelhouse for this week – and is dynamite with a wedge in hand, gaining the fifth-most strokes around the green.

He’s got a low launch angle (9.58) and can easily navigate the weather in Northern Ireland.

Others: J.B. Holmes ($6600), Erik van Rooyen ($7100), Andrew Johnston ($6800)

 

You can follow me on Twitter @adalyfrey and good luck this week!