The First Tee – The Open Championship

THE OPEN! Best non-Augusta week in golf, especially if you’re taking the week off to stay up all night watching golf. Conversely, it’s the worst week in golf if you’re taking the week off because you just got divorced.

The Course

It hasn’t been played as a regular men’s event since 2007 – when Padraig Harrington beat Sergio in a playoff at -7 – but Carnoustie has hosted both the Champions Tour (2010, 2016) and the Women’s British Open (2011) in that time. Beyond that, Carnoustie is one of three courses in the Alfred Dunhill Links Championship, so there is somewhat more recent and relevant history to look at. One caveat: all these events are different from what the 2018 Open setup will be, given that both the yardage and par will be tougher.

Typically, Carnoustie is a regular links course, which means tough fescue, rolling fairways, and wide open to the elements; none of that is different this year, but with Scotland having such a dry summer, the course is extremely baked out which will add a ton of distance and roll to tee shots, and make sticking it on the greens even tougher than normal. There are already reports of shorter hitters smashing it off the tee – Brandt Snedeker tweeted his 427-yard drive – so distance won’t be as much of an advantage for long hitters as it is most weeks.

The Open setup this year will have Carnoustie playing as a par-71 at 7402 yards, with 13 par-4s to only three par-3s and two par-5s. That setup is a touch different from a regular par-71 which usually has an extra par-3 and par-5, so par-4 scoring will be the equalizer this week. Both par-5s are short-ish (especially with the weather) at 580- and 513-yards, but with narrow fairways don’t expect many eagles. Seven of the par-4s play above 450-yards, but there are some very short, very gettable par-4s as well at just 396-, 382- and 350-yards.

Hitting the narrow-ish fairways should also be easier, as the play off the tee will be to use a driving iron; in similar conditions at Hoylake in the middle of the last decade, Tiger Woods (who won) kept the driver in his bag for basically the entire tournament. From reports, the fescue at Carnoustie is rather tame compared to past Opens thanks to the weather, so missing into the first cut off the fairway shouldn’t be too punitive. The only real concern is tee shots that get incredibly wayward as there are tight out of bounds restrictions, and the fairway bunkers that will make approach shots tough.

Given the added distance off the tee this week, golfers that have success with a wedge will have a real advantage. With the approach distance expected to typically sit between 50-125 yards, golfers that find most of their approach success with their longer irons can safely be ignored, as that skill should rarely come into play (except on the par-5s). On approach, golfers won’t have to deal with too many blind shots, but they will have to deal with very challenging lies thanks to the rolling fairways – balls below the feet, for example. Water hazards exist as Barry Burn runs through the course, and will come into play as it has in the past here (see: van de Velde, Harrington).

Sticking onto the mostly-bentgrass greens will be a challenge thanks to the firm conditions, but they’ve been tough greens to hit in the past regardless (56% GIR in 2007 per Josh Culp). There’s actually not much undulation and slope on the greens, but in the wide-open links play, both putting lines and actually holding the green can be strongly affected by the wind. If the green is missed, the bunkers at Carnoustie are incredibly tough, and need to be avoided at all costs; like the fairway bunkers, it’s often better to miss into thick grass than to hit a bunker.

The Stats

The Strokes Gained stats to focus on in order (not including Tee to Green):

• Approach
• Off the Tee
• Around-the-Green
• Putting

Counting stats to focus on in order:

• Bogey Avoidance
• Approach Shots 50-125 Yards
• Distance from Edge of Fairway
• Par-4 Scoring
• Scrambling
• Launch Angle (lower the better)

Top-Tier Golfer

Tommy Fleetwood ($9400): Although Dunhill Links isn’t the same setup, Tommy Fleetwood set the course record at Carnoustie less than a year ago, shooting -9 with a bogey-free round. It’s important to note just how different the setup and course conditions are from November ’17, but having a course record can’t be construed as a bad thing in any way, shape or form.

Fleetwood’s coming-out party has continued this year, with only two missed cuts on the year – although his most recent was at the Open de France just two weeks ago – and six top-10s on both the Euro and PGA Tours which includes a win (Abu Dhabi) and a runner-up at the U.S. Open thanks to a final round 63. He had a relatively disappointing T27 at last year’s Open on his home course, but he enters this week without any of the pressures of performing at a home course, and he’s consistently played extremely well on links courses.

• 9^th SG: Off the Tee / T12th in Distance from the Edge of the Fairway
• 55^th SG: Approach / 66% of Greens in Regulation %
• 18^th SG: Around-the-Greens (very good on a course with tough greens to hold)
• 11^th in Birdie or Better %
• Launch angle of 10.37 degrees

Statistically, Fleetwood’s game sets up very well for links-style golf, and at only $9400 on DraftKings, he’s a tremendous value although he should be ~20% owned. The one concern for Fleetwood is that he’s a better player with longer irons.

 

Other golfers to consider:

Justin Rose ($10200)

Pros: So many to choose from: 18^th in SG: OTT, 27^th on Approach, 7^th in Putting, 11^th from tee to green. Best on the PGA relative to par from 50-125 yards out, incredible on par-4s, and 4^th in birdie or better percentage. Hasn’t missed a cut in the 2018 season (13 events), coming off a T9 at the Scottish Open

Cons: A touch inaccurate off the tee relative to how strong he is in every other facet. Has a high launch angle which isn’t ideal if the winds pick up. That’s it, that’s the list. He’s the probable Open champion. 

Tiger Woods ($8900)

Pros: Has a T12 at Carnoustie (’07), coming off a T4 at the National, and almost every aspect of his game is firing on all cylinders. 3^rd in SG: Approach and 17 under par from 50-125 yards out (28^th), he’s only hitting 66% of greens in regulation but has been dynamite with his irons – he’s just put himself in bad spots off the tee shot, hence why he gains so many strokes on approach. Incredible on missed greens, extremely strong scorer.

Cons: Awful putting on the year (although much improved at his last event), and even worse accuracy off the tee- whether his driving accuracy becomes a factor is still a question mark, because Tiger has the game to hit stinger irons off the tee and leave driver in the bag.

Value Golfer (below $8000)

Byeong Hun An ($7100): He’s had a fairly strong year on both the PGA and European Tour, only missing three cuts, and picking up four top-10 finishes including a T2 at Memorial. He did miss the cut at the Dunhill Links back in November and isn’t exactly known for his links acumen, but An offers a strong value at only $7100 this week.

His accuracy is a bit of a concern, but Benny An still sits 16^th in SG: Off the Tee and has been very strong from tee to green, gaining 1.123 strokes per round. He’s extremely strong specifically from the 50-125 range, sitting at 20-under par with an average proximity of 17’6”, and he’s hitting 67% of greens in regulation.

Beyond the accuracy issues, the main concern this week will be on the putting greens where An is a horrible one-putter (148^th) and is 109^th in SG: Putting.

Kyle Stanley ($6900)

Pros: 8^th in Greens in Regulation, deadly accurate off the tee (T2 in distance from edge of the fairway) and a very strong par-4 scorer. Great on approach although his SG numbers aren’t great, but that’s mostly due to how good he is off the tee; he’s usually in better positions than the field for his approach shots.

Cons: Bad around the greens which doesn’t bode well for a course where hitting the greens will be tough. Coming off a missed cut last week at the JDC, missed the cut at the Open last year and doesn’t have a lot of links experience. Typically a poor putter but actually has been having a strong enough year in that regard.

You can follow me on Twitter @adalyfrey and good luck this week!