The First Tee – The Memorial

This Week

The Memorial takes place at Muirfield Village Golf Club, a Jack Nicklaus design, and it’s an invitational like last week at Colonial which means a slightly smaller field than normal (~120). This week usually sees a stronger field than most weeks as it’s an opportunity to pay respects to Nicklaus, and its place on the schedule – it’s two weeks ‘til the U.S. Open, so the last tune-up for golfers who like to skip the week before a major.

The Course

Muirfield G.C. in Dublin, Ohio is a par-72 listed just under 7400 yards, and is typically a tough test of golf similar to what was seen last week at Colonial; the winning scores here over the past five years averages out to -14.5, with the cut coming right around par. Most of the scoring will have to get done on the par-5s, as the four par-5s make up four of the seven holes that averaged below par here last year, and 40.9% of total birdies or better. Those par-5s are all relatively short as they play between 527- and 567-yards.

It’s the par-3s and -4s here that will make or break a week, as seven of the ten par-4s play outside 447 yards and only one of them plays as “easy” (average of -0.1 or lower), and none of the par-3s play below par; in fact, the scoring average on the par-3s over the past five years is a very tough 3.16 and this course has some of the toughest on tour, ranking between the toughest and 12^th-toughest in four of the past five years, with last year being an anomaly.

The fairways at Muirfield are wide – averaging 31 yards across at the 300-yard marker – but there are so many doglegs on the course that distance isn’t a big factor, as it’s more important to position the approach shot here than it is to eat up too much fairway with a worse angle in. The rough (at least the first cut) is pretty thin and not much to worry about, but it’s a dangerous game missing both the fairway and first cut as it gets treacherous very quickly; the course has some scattered trees, creeks and fairway bunkers, but in general there shouldn’t be concerns about hazards.

The average approach shot here should be longer than most weeks, in the 150-200 range, and golfers will be hitting into small bentgrass greens that are tough to hold. They’re tough to hold thanks to playing so quickly (~13’ on the stimp) and firm, as well as having a ton of undulation. The greens here are typically some of the hardest at seeing putts inside 10’ drop – ranking 12^th, 8^th, 10^th, 4^th and 8^th-toughest over the past five years – so finding people who have putt well here previously could be a big help.

Scrambling correlates much higher to finish position at this course than the majority of courses on tour as so many shots fail to find the green in regulation, and while scrambling isn’t a perfect stat thanks to its reliance on both wedge play and putting, it’s something to target this week.

The Stats

The Strokes Gained stats to focus on in order (not including Tee to Green):

• Approach
• Putting
• Around the Green
• Off-The-Tee

Counting stats to focus on in order:

• Bogey Avoidance
• Greens in Regulation
• Par-3 Scoring
• Putting Inside 10’
• Birdie or Better %
• Approach Shots: 150-200 Yards

Top-Tier Golfers

Patrick Cantlay ($10200): In his two appearances at Muirfield Village, Cantlay has played very well: a T35 his first time out in 2017 and a solo fourth last year, with only one round above par to three rounds in the 60s. On the season, Cantlay’s only missed two cuts (in stroke play), and every time he’s made the cut he’s finished in the top-25 – five of those seven were top-10 finishes.

This season there’s no better scrambler than Cantlay, as he’s scrambled successfully a whopping 68.8% of the time (although he’s struggled relatively from 0 to 20 yards out). The knock on Cantlay around the greens has always been his bunker play and while that’s not ideal – 50.7% sand save rate, 8’4” proximity from the sand – it’s not the bunkers that make scrambling here so hard, so that can be pushed aside as a negative this week.

Beyond the scrambling, Cantlay checks a lot of boxes:

• 1^st in Par-4 Scoring / 9^th in Par-4 Birdie or Better %
• 1^st in Bogey Avoidance
• 5^th in SG: Tee to Green thanks to rankings of 15^th, 14^th and 21^st off the tee, on approach and around the green respectively
• 5^th and 9^th in Proximity from 150-175 Yards and 175-200 Yards respectively

The concerns with him this week will be his lack of accuracy off the tee (somewhat mitigated thanks to the wide fairways) and his putting inside 10’.

Matt Kuchar ($9400): You should know exactly what you’re getting when you roster Matt Kuchar: incredible accuracy both off the tee (8^th) and with his irons (7^th-best proximity to the hole/best greens in regulation percentage), not a ton of distance, and his week will basically go as his putter goes if it’s not an overly-long course.

Like Cantlay, Kuchar has struggled with putts inside 10’ and although he’s positive in SG: Putting, he’s still only picking up 0.212SG/round which is good for 71^st on tour. He’s also struggled on one-putts and avoiding three-putts, but that’s the variance you have to risk when using Kuchar; he still scrambles well (21^st) and has the 42^nd, 5^th and 3^rd-best scoring averages on par-3s, -4s and -5s respectively thanks to his accurate game. He ranks third on tour in bogey avoidance and a whopping ninth in overall BoB% so he should be able to put up a good chunk of DK points and keep himself in contention.

On the season Kuchar is 12-for-12 in cuts made, and he’s made the top-10 in a full HALF of all events played including a win in Hawaii and two solo seconds (Match Play and Heritage). His course history is outrageous, with only one missed cut (in 2003) in 13 attempts, and he’s finished in the top-10 seven times which includes a win and a second.

 

Value Golfer (below $8000)

Talor Gooch ($6900): After returning from injury two weeks ago on the Web.com tour (where he finished T13 at the Knoxville Open), Gooch made the cut on the number at Colonial last week and ended up with a T29 – his worst finish of the season when making the cut. Gooch has missed four times in eight PGA events this year but has picked up a T3, 4, T20 and T29 the other four tries, and he’s shown he plays better on bentgrass greens. One of the concerns in picking him this week is his lack of history here, but he shines statistically:

• 5^th in SG: Approach / 7^th in Greens in Regulation
• 19^th in Scrambling from the Rough (67.92%) although 60.63% (83^rd) in overall Scrambling
• 16^th in Birdie or Better percentage / 10^th and 15^th in Par-4 and -5 BoB% respectively
• 14^th in Proximity to the Hole
• 25^th in Bogey Avoidance
• -43 to par when hitting the fairway (306 attempts), T10

There are definitely some warts in his game, like his dismal driving accuracy (166^th) but as mentioned with Cantlay above, that should be mitigated by the wider fairways. Beyond that, his putting inside 10’ and three-putt avoidance are a little scary at 95^th and 172^nd respectively, but again he has played better on bentgrass. He’s a big-time scorer at a small-time price tag, so he makes for a great value play.

 

Emiliano Grillo ($7900): Coming off back-to-back top-25 finishes and with only one missed cut in 2019, Grillo is having a fine year on tour and has some strong history here as he’s gone three for three in made cuts with two of those top-25 finishes. The Argentinian has five rounds in the 60s here compared to three above par.

Although his putter is an absolute bag of trash (198^th in SG: Putting), he’s been a touch better on the greens recently as he’s only lost ~0.6 strokes putting over the past three events played and he’s actually moved up five spots in the rankings since then! The other main concern with Grillo is his play around the greens, as he’s been very poor from in tight throughout his career: he’s 167^th in SG: Around the Green and 176^th in Scrambling.

While those are pretty big concerns, especially here, Grillo has been phenomenal off the tee (28^th) and on approach (10^th), good enough to make up for his poor play around the greens to rank 20^th overall from tee to green. He’s accurate off the tee and positions his ball very well, he hits greens at a great rate (70.02%) and he’s a par-3 stud with the 11^th-best BoB% on those holes. His price tag is a bit high, but his made cut rate is so impressive that he’s worth it.

 

You can follow me on Twitter @adalyfrey and good luck this week!