The First Tee- The Masters – by Adam Daly

Welcome to Masters week, which also happens to coincide with my debut here at FantasyGolfInsiders, taking over the First Tee. For new readers, this article takes a look at what the “pros” did last week, and looks at some golfers for this week’s event; for regular readers, you’ll notice a new format in how the “pros” information is displayed.

Pro Results – Takeaways

It’s tough to take a lot away from this week, given the slaughter that was the cut line. With misses coming from Henrik Stenson, Jordan Spieth, Adam Scott, et. al, there was really only one golfer in the “elite” range that was worth paying for – Rickie Fowler. From the “pro” lineups, every pro had 40% or more exposure to a MC, and FlavorFlav missed with both Spieth and Patrick Reed at high exposure.

If there’s one lesson learned this week, it’s to limit exposure in MME; SaahilSud ended up with zero 6/6 lineups due to his 86% Adam Scott, and FlavorFlav ended up with 0.67% 6/6 lineups with over 50% exposure to both Spieth and Reed.

The largest take-away this board should offer, as every week – and also one I’ve learned myself this year – is just how important it is to play higher stakes to make any money. The difference in payouts for jetblackx’s 382^nd place finish in the $3 compared to 11^th in the $333 is a four-figure swing.

This Week

The big stop for the Tour this week is at Augusta National for the Masters, if you haven’t been paying attention so far. DraftKings is running their MillyMaker contest this week, and FGI has loads of information to dig into, with more to come for the first Major of the year.

The Course

Augusta National is a par-72 that checks in at 7,435 yards, with four par-3s and four par-5s. With the slightly-above average width on fairways – that dogleg from right-to-left – it’s not hard to hit the fairways (~69%). Missing fairways could mean ending up behind trees, tough bunkers, or very slight rough, but in general missing fairways at Augusta won’t ruin a round.

Gaining distance has always been a factor in having success at the Masters, and it shows in how well Strokes Gained: Off the Tee correlates to average finish position – around 30%, the highest correlation of all the Strokes Gained categories.  Looking at Total Driving/Good Drive % ranks is a good area to start with. (h/t to Colin Drew for the correlation)

With the course favouring that right-to-left dogleg, golfers that can draw the ball will have a distinct advantage; in the case of left-handed hitters, they’ll be able to hit the easier cut, or fade. As Phil Mickelson pointed out in his Feherty interview, six of the last 13 Masters winners have been left-handed. With the draw being so important, a golfer like Dustin Johnson who generally hits a cut may struggle a touch here (comparatively speaking), although he has made excellent strides in that this year.

The bentgrass greens are such a big part of what makes Augusta National so special – with a stimpmeter close to 14, a typical slope away from the hole, and wild undulation everywhere on the green, both putting and approach shots are key at the Masters. Coming in on approach, golfers will need to short-side the ball below the hole to have the opportunity to score. Landing high on these greens will set up for some three-putt (or worse) opportunities, and lots of lag putting trying to minimize damage rather than score.

Given all that, the Strokes Gained stats to focus on in order (not including Tee to Green):

• Off The Tee
• Putting
• Approach
• Around the Green

Counting stats to focus on in order:

• Driving Distance
• Par-5 Scoring
• Putts Per Round
• Birdie or Better %

The Event

The Masters invites the top-50 ranked golfers in the world, all past Masters winners, all players who won on the PGA Tour in the last year, and recent Major winners among others. This makes for a field of about 100 (currently 94), but it’s important to note that Augusta’s cut line is also a tradition like no other; rather than top-70 and ties, the Masters takes the top-50 golfers (and ties), and any player within ten shots of the leader.  The latter came into play last year, when Jordan Spieth gave a couple shots back on Friday to sneak Bubba Watson into the cut.

For DFS purposes, that cut rule means that only 46% will miss the cut this week, putting a premium not just on getting 6/6 through the cut, but on hitting either the winner or multiple top-10s to finish well. Taking the MillyMaker down will essentially be a lottery ticket.

One of the long-time beliefs surrounding the Masters is that first-timers can’t win, because conquering Augusta can’t happen without first understanding it and all its nuances. While that may be true – Fuzzy Zoeller was the last first-time winner, in 1979 – it’s not exactly relevant to daily fantasy. Using an Augusta rookie on DraftKings is an overall smart strategy this week, because the Average Joe that throws their 33 dollars in on a lark will keep that in mind and play it safe with more known quantities. There are a few young guns that have the potential to finish in the top-5 here, and if ownership ends up slightly repressed because they’re first-timers, that could make for a high-upside play.

The Golfers

The Core

Jordan Spieth ($11500): Spieth has been playing absolutely lights out this season, and has the course history at Augusta that will drive ownership in droves. Although he’s not currently the Vegas favourite, Spieth was a couple water balls away from going 2 – 1 – 1 in his first three cracks at this course, and somehow isn’t expected to be the highest-owned player in the field.  Last season Jordan faltered in a big way with his driver, and this year his accuracy hasn’t improved much, which will be a concern when there are longer, more accurate hitters in the field; conversely though, Spieth is far and away the best player on approach, which will definitely make up for the wayward tee shots – especially when the rough is non-existent. Spieth is the best Par-5 scorer in the field and an elite putter (2^nd in SG:Putting last year, 39^th this year).

Justin Rose ($9200): Through 28 rounds this year, the Gold Medal-winning Rose currently sits 8^th in SG: Off the Tee, is hitting just under 70% of his Greens in Regulation (ranked even higher on GIR from 200+ yards), and importantly hasn’t been hurt by his putting (71^st). Although Rose isn’t known for one thing in the same way DJ is for his length, or Spieth/Day are for their putting, the Brit has the overall game that sets him up well at the Masters. At $9200 and sitting just behind Rickie Fowler in pricing, Rose should go under-owned as the more popular play will be pairing Fowler or Rahm with the Big 3. Rose has excellent history here, never missing the cut, and with four Top-10 finishes including a T2 in 2015.

Thomas Pieters ($7700): After absolutely blowing up on the back 9 on Friday at the Arnold Palmer Invitational, Pieters may get some repressed ownership this week from people that have recency bias, on top of the fact that the real “Belgian Bomber” (sorry, Nic Colsaerts) is a rookie. The thing to note about Pieters and his two awful missed cuts on the PGA this year, is that they both came on Bermudagrass greens, with slow-to-average green speeds. Compare that to the rest of his year: coming 5^th on speedy Poa Annua in Mexico, 2^nd on the same green type at the Genesis Open, and 14^th at the WGC-HSBC on very speedy Bentgrass. As one of the longest hitters on Tour – that can also hit a draw when he has to – Pieters should have a field day at Augusta, and is cheap enough to wedge in with Spieth and Rose without having to play a Larry Mize or Mike Weir-type.

The Fade

Just a small note here – I play one lineup, so every week I’m fading the full field minus six, just by virtue of only using one lineup. The Fade of the Week is thus chosen for expected value vs. expected ownership, NOT because they’re necessarily good or bad plays.

Jon Rahm ($8600): With Jon Rahm being sub-10k, and having been talked up in every possible way in every corner of the internet, it should be expected to see absurd ownership numbers for the Spaniard at Augusta. His price is cheap enough that he makes an easy stack with one of Jordan-DJ-Rory – the coupling of Rahm and one of the Big 3 will all be over 10% owned, easily. If he misses the cut, that will eliminate ~35% of the field in one fell swoop.

Why should Rahm be avoided, after what’s been an excellent coming out party? Rahm, after all, has been a stud Off the Tee – ranked 3^rd on Tour after Sergio Garcia and DJ, and he’s also one of the longer hitters at an average of 302.7 yards (22^nd). While those are excellent numbers and OTT is the most important stat of the week, it’s also crucial to look at putting this week, where Rahm has struggled. From 5’-10’ Rahm has only made 52.59% of his putts this season (159^th), and Inside 10’ he’s not much better, T125th on Tour. Those “Throw-Up Zone” putts between 5-10 feet can make or break a round at Augusta, and when combined with the rookie factor and projected ownership, it makes Rahm easy to avoid.

 

You can follow me on Twitter @adalyfrey, and if there’s something you’d like to see change in this column my DMs are open! Good luck at Augusta