The First Tee – The Masters

The time has finally come for our trip down Magnolia Lane for the first major of the year – there are better writers who have wittier openers, so I won’t make the effort this year – which means the return of fantastic contests on both DraftKings (the Milly Maker, larger-than-normal SE) and FanDuel (the guaranteed FGI contest).

Housekeeping notes for this week of PGA DFS:

• The cut is T50, and the field is incredibly small at either 86 or 87, depending on the Houston Open winner. The Masters is the only major where they also have the “ten shots within the leader” cut line, so the possibility exists to get even more players through; if you have a 5/6 or worse lineup this week, just log out on Friday and enjoy sweat-free golf.
• There’s no ShotLink data at Augusta that’s publicly available, which means the statistics are very rudimentary
• FGI is killing it with content both here and at ESPN this week, and most of the staff are also featured on the big Pat Mayo Experience Milly Maker podcast, so make sure to check everything out!

This is what I wrote in last year’s column, and it remains true: One of the long-time beliefs surrounding the Masters is that first-timers can’t win, because conquering Augusta can’t happen without first understanding it and all its nuances. While that may be true – Fuzzy Zoeller was the last first-time winner, in 1979 – it’s not exactly relevant to daily fantasy. Using an Augusta rookie on DraftKings is an overall smart strategy this week because the Average Joe that throws their (20) dollars in on a lark will keep that in mind and play it safe with more known quantities. There are a few (first-timers) that have the potential to finish in the top-5 here, and if ownership ends up slightly repressed because they’re first-timers, that could make for a high-upside play.

Both Jon Rahm and Thomas Pieters performed very well in their first run at Augusta last year, and Pieters ended up in the 4-8% ownership range.

THE COURSE

Augusta National is a par-72 that checks in at 7,435 yards, with four par-3s and four par-5s. Nine of the ten par-4s play above 440 yards, and they all averaged over par over the past five years – the short par-4 3^rd that sits at 350 yards was below par once (2015), but 49/50 times above par speaks to just how hard the par-4s are here. The importance of playing at least par golf on the par-4s can’t be understated, but a high finish will also take advantage of the par-5s: last season, 19 eagles were made on the 5s, and only the 15^th averaged worse than -0.2 relative to par.

With the slightly-above average width on fairways – that mostly dogleg right-to-left – it’s pretty easy to keep it in the fairways; around 70% of tee shots find the fairway. Missing the fairway at Augusta doesn’t tend to be punitive, as the rough is cut incredibly short, but it could mean finding pine straw and tough lies for a second shot. The other factor of missing the fairway could be landing in the trees or in some tough fairway bunkers. The key off the tee will be distance and positioning for the approach shot – but off the tee play is the most important (non-putting) aspect to find success at the Masters. With the course favouring that right-to-left dogleg, golfers that can draw the ball will have a distinct advantage; in the case of left-handed hitters, they’ll be able to hit the easier cut, or fade.

Approaching the greens at Augusta is a tough test, not because the greens are tough to get to, but because the undulation in the fairways can cause some tough lies for approach shots. The roll in the fairways will cause a lot of below-the-feet iron shots, and they’ll need to be hit with mid-irons typically. The longer hitters will have an advantage here – which again speaks to how important distance off the tee is – because they’ll be able to use short irons and wedges, which will allow for better spin and distance control.

The other aspect that will make hitting the greens tough is the speed and firmness (always weather-dependent) of the bentgrass greens at Augusta. The stimpmeter here is close to 14, which will be the fastest greens golfers have seen this season, and the greens slope away from the green and have lots of undulation. This means a lot of lag putts and avoiding landing above the hole – three-putt avoidance will be important to avoid big numbers, but for strong approach golfers that will be an easier task.

STATS

The Strokes Gained stats to focus on in order (not including Tee to Green):

• Off the Tee
• Approach
• Putting
• Around the Green

Counting stats to focus on in order:

• Carry Distance (more accurate version of Driving Distance, because it eliminates roll)
• Par-5 Scoring
• Birdie or Better %
• Putts per Round
• Par-4 Scoring
• Greens in Regulation

Top-Tier Golfers

Bubba Watson ($8700): A two-time winner of the green jacket, Bubba is back to looking like his old dominant self after a horrendous 2017 that included health issues that caused him to lose a bunch of weight and playing with a mini-putt ball that he couldn’t shape the way he always has. Since switching back to the Titleist ball this year, Bubba has won twice (WGC Match Play and the Genesis Open) and has only missed one cut in seven events (CareerBuilder). Compare that to 2017 when he missed seven cuts in 24 events and had only four top-10 finishes – which includes the QBE Shootout, WGC Match Play, and the Zurich Classic team event. Given his form and price tag, he’s sure to see some ownership as a two-time winner, but he’s my pick to win this year.

Statistically, Bubba rates out perfectly for this course when his putter is going. He’s got the length off the tee that’s necessary to win at Augusta – 3^rd in distance over all tee shots at 307.3 yards – and although he’s not as accurate as you’d like at only 56%, that distance helps him gain strokes from the tee box at a great rate: .906 SG: Approach, currently 6^th in that category. With the rough not really existing at ANGC, Bubba can miss the fairway and still give himself great looks, especially with the way he can shape shots.

As a left-handed golfer, Bubba also gets a weird advantage at Augusta; six of the past 14 winners here have been lefties, thanks in part to the common right-to-left dogleg the course favours. Beyond his wins, Bubba has also made eight of nine cuts (last year the exception), but his best non-win is a meagre T20. He’ll be a chalky boom/bust pick this week at a reasonable salary.

 

Jon Rahm ($9300): Although he fell back in the pack on Sunday in his Masters debut last year, Rahm was very impressive through 54 holes at Augusta, sitting at even par through 54 in what was a very tough week for scoring. For a first-timer, Rahm flashed all the tools necessary to succeed in the years to come, and this year he should sport an even better finish.

Since the start of 2018, the feisty Spaniard has amassed four top-25s – including a win at CareerBuilder and a runner-up in the Tournament of Champions – while missing zero cuts in seven events. His play at the Match Play had a disappointing result (T52), but he rates out very well for Augusta:

• 2^nd in SG: Off the Tee (1.036)
• 2^nd in Driving Distance (All Drives), 312.0 yards
• 13^th in Putts per Round – although he’s three-putted 17 times (3.37%)
• 2^nd in overall Birdie or Better percentage, 28.17%
• T4 in Par-4 Scoring, T34 in Par-5 Scoring

Much like Bubba, Rahm’s a long hitter that tends to be inaccurate with the driver, and for a golfer that’s seemingly got horrific SG: Approach numbers (137^th on Tour, losing 0.161 strokes), Rahm is still hitting 69.05% of greens in regulation. Over his last 24 measured rounds, Rahm is the 16^th-best putter in the field on bentgrass, compared to 31^st on Bermuda, which is another notch in his belt for the speedy greens of Augusta National.

Other golfers to consider: Justin Rose ($9300) – chalk, chalk, chalk; Dustin Johnson ($11400) – poor year by his standards but expected low-ownership for the current number one is hard to pass up.

 

Value Golfers (below $8000)

Ryan Moore ($7000): Moore has had a fantastic time at Augusta, playing it nine times and only missing the cut twice – including four top-25s, one of which was last year’s T9. He’s been having a good year relative to his price point, with a T5 just a few weeks ago at Bay Hill, and a T9 at Riviera which is a good companion course to Augusta. Moore has missed two cuts in only five events (WMPO and Valspar), and is a pick that doesn’t exactly fit the “bomber” prototype that tends to succeed here: he’s 182^nd in Driving Distance (286.6 yards), but he didn’t play in Mexico or Hawaii which has inflated a lot of his competition’s averages. All that being said, Moore is very accurate and consistently puts himself in great spots for second shots, which will help make up for the lack of distance off the tee – he sits 16^th in Distance from the Edge of the Fairway, which is a stronger statistic to look at for accuracy purposes.

Moore is a very steady player on the par-4s, but he’ll need to improve on the par-5s to really have a chance to finish near the top this week; he averages 4.01 on par-4s (21 measured rounds), but 4.62 on par-5s.

 

Gary Woodland ($7200): This year’s WMPO winner has had middling success in his five shots at a green jacket: two missed cuts and a W/D, but he does have finishes at T24 and T26. He’s had a fine year on tour in 2018, with three top-25s in eight events (including the win) and only two missed cuts which came on courses with tight fairways.

Gary has never been a strong putter which will hurt him at Augusta, but statistically he rates out well beyond that:

• 15^th in Strokes Gained: Off the Tee
• 9^th in Driving Distance
• 39^th in Strokes Gained: Approach
• 25^th in both Par-4 and Par-5 Birdie or Better %

 

Other values: Bryson DeChambeau ($6900) – his form is just fantastic, and his debut at Augusta was very strong for an amateur (T21 in 2016). Strong bentgrass putter.

 

Good luck this week! You can follow me on Twitter @adalyfrey if you have any questions, and my DMs are always open.