The First Tee – St Jude Classic

The lead up into the U.S. Open, the St. Jude’s Classic is a rather boring, straight-forward affair at a TPC course, and loads of field changes thanks to US Open qualifying. There are typically a handful of notable WDs from this event. Make sure to stay on top of Twitter (Rob Bolton and PGATourMedia are both great sources), and to read the weekly FGI email Wednesday night.

The St. Jude Classic typically sees a winner in the -10 to -13 range, with no score greater than -13 since Brian Gay’s -18 in 2009. The cut is usually above par – +1 has been the cut four times in the past five years, and E once – so don’t expect high-scoring DFS plays this week.

The Course

TPC Southwind in Memphis, Tennessee, is a fairly typical TPC course: golfers can leave driver in the bag if they’re more comfortable with shorter clubs, water hazards are a big factor, and the rough is pretty tame. The Prichard design is a par-70 that sits at just 7244 yards, with the two par-5s sitting between just 530- and 554-yards. Last year, the 530-yard 16^th saw 17 eagles (compared to just six on the par-5 3^rd), and both holes ranked #1 and #2 for easiest holes on the course.

Getting a hot start on the front-9 is imperative, with the first three holes averaging under par last year. Those three holes were three of the six holes that averaged below par, with the course as a hole playing just a touch over par at 0.035 on average. Seven of the twelve par-4s at Southwind sit above 450 yards, but that includes the 453-yard 18^th, so it’s realistically a pretty even split.

As mentioned, golfers off the tee can club down to ensure they hit the fairway, as the course length is very manageable even for shorter hitters. With slightly above average fairway widths – at 275-yards out, the average fairway is 29 yards across – golfers could find an advantage by hitting driver, but that can put water into play which is always a scary proposition; as noted in last year’s First Tee article, from 2012-16, 930 tee shots ended up wet. Beyond the water, the course is also loosely lined with trees, and has the typical easy fairway bunkers of a TPC course. Hitting the rough won’t set a golfer back however, as the rough at Southwind is relatively tame. For that reason, target the longer hitters that could still muscle a wood (see: Koepka, Finau, etc.)

The typical approach dispersion here is 150-175 yards out, and 175-200 yards out. Obviously if you’re looking at players that will get aggressive and go longer off the tee, you’ll want to account for that and change the target dispersion range. On approach, golfers will be looking into small greens that play firm and fast (~12 on the stimp), fairly close to what was shown last week at Memorial. Once on the Bermuda greens, there’s lots of undulation, and putting at Southwind has proven to have a bigger impact than the average course on Tour. Missing the greens isn’t typically punitive, but getting up & down will be a key at a low-scoring course.

The Stats

The Strokes Gained stats to focus on in order (not including Tee to Green):

• Approach
• Putting
• Off-the-Tee
• Around-the-Green

Counting stats to focus on in order:

• Bogey Avoidance
• Greens in Regulation %
• Approach Shots 150-200 Yards
• Par-4 Birdie or Better %
• Optional: Carry Distance (I’ll be personally targeting players that are long off the tee this week, but that’s personal preference based on longer hitters making more birdies)

Top-Tier Golfer

Brooks Koepka ($11100): Much like last time he hit the links – when he finished 2^nd at the Fort Worth – Koepka is a play based more on past statistics, as this year has been a tough one for him; beyond the wrist injury that sidelined him for almost four months, his stats look awful thanks to playing tough courses with a bum wrist. He hasn’t actually reached enough measured rounds on the year (only 18 so far), but he’s dominated at TPC Southwind in the past: T2 (2016), T3 (2015), T19 (2014), and a dismal T37 last year (dismal relative to his other finishes.)

Even without hitting enough measured rounds, there are still some stats that jump out about just how talented Brooks is:

• 30 birdies/round (T8)
• 3 yards Driving Distance, All Drives (T12) – and that’s without playing in Mexico which would’ve given him quite a bump
• 44% Birdie or Better (7^th) / 20.83% Par-4 Birdie or Better (7^th)

Looking back at last year, Brooks was a combined -36 when he had 150-200 yards in, and he left himself an average proximity of 25’11” from 150-175 and 29’7” from 175-200. He’s one of the best on Tour at hitting bounce backs – mostly because of how strong he is at scoring – and although he may not end up winning this week, he’ll have the chance to be the highest-scoring golfer for DFS purposes.

 

Other golfers to consider:

Kiradech Aphibarnat ($8400)

Pros: In the field as a sponsor exemption, which could be motivational if you’re into narratives. Only one missed cut this year across the world, and is playing this week off a T13 at Memorial after a T5 in the BMW PGA Championship across the pond (a stacked field event.) Very strong putter that scores well on both par-4s and par-5s, and is a top-50 golfer off the tee. Should see low ownership.

Cons: Has never played TPC Southwind before. His PGA strokes gained numbers aren’t the most appealing, especially on approach where he sits 166^th. Not the longest hitter by any stretch, and has only hit 63% of greens in regulation.

Tony Finau ($9300)

Pros: Finau is a lot like Brooks in that he’s a big hitter that excels at scoring, and is strong from 150-200 yards out. He ranks 18^th in SG: Tee to Green, is hitting 69.15% of greens in regulation, and is -68 when he hits the fairway (good for 23^rd). Has no finishes at this course, but hasn’t missed a cut since Valspar in March, and has four top-10s in 13 events so far.

Cons: Not having played this course is probably a disadvantage if you’re a course history believer. Finau’s putting is always what holds him back, and he only hits 52.81% of fairways. With only two par-5s on the course, he loses that extra edge that he would otherwise have.

Value Golfer (below $8000)

Chez Reavie ($7600): Reavie has been mostly dynamite in his shots at the St. Jude Classic, with three finishes of T27 or better in four tries; he missed the cut his first time here, in 2011, but is coming off a T4 here last year. Reavie typically works very well on par-70 courses, because it takes two par-5s out of the equation, which he tends to struggle on – Chez ranks 167^th in Par-5 Scoring, while ranking T10 in both Par-3 and Par-4 Scoring.

While he’s not the longest hitter (in fact, none of the value picks this week are), Reavie still gains strokes off the tee thanks to his pinpoint accuracy: 72.31% Driving Accuracy (3^rd), and 20’11” Distance from Edge of Fairway (T13). He’s been very strong with his irons when he avoids the rough, averaging just 30’6” to the pin when he’s hitting from the fairway, and he’s especially strong from 125-175 yards out; this isn’t the ideal distance this week, but it captures ~40% of expected approach shots for Reavie.

The one thing that always holds Reavie back is his putter, as he three-putts a putrid 3.07% of the time (101^st) and has an overall SG: Putting rank of 101^st. For all the good aspects Reavie brings, it’s worth eating his poor putter and locking in his value.

Brian Gay ($7500)

Pros: Past winner (2009) and has three total top-10 finishes here, with seven made cut in 12 attempts. Has had a solid year on Tour, with two top-10s in 14 events, only missing five cuts. Absolutely nails when he’s on the green, one-putting 43.6% of the time (5^th) with the 7^th-best overall putting average. For a relatively inexpensive DFS play, Gay does score well (3.88 birdies/rd) and is good on both par-3s and -4s. Deadly accurate off the tee which bodes well on a course with so many hazards.

Cons: Struggles in the key 175-200 yard approach range (165^th proximity / 113^th relative to par), and struggles overall with longer irons. He’ll need those regularly as he’s a very short hitter, averaging only 276.7 on all drives. Ranks just 99^th in SG: Tee to Green.

Wesley Bryan ($7100)

Pros: One of the best putters in the field, ranking 32^nd in SG: Putting and 3^rd in Overall Putting Average. Beyond that, he’s 12^th-best at one-putting, which he manages 42.71% of the time. One of the best wedges on Tour – sticking it an average of 14’3” from 50-125 yards out (1^st), so he’ll have an advantage on the shorter holes. Has great proximity when he does manage to hit the fairway. Coming off two straight made cuts, which is sadly a good sign.

Cons: Has poor form this season (6 made cut, 7 missed) and has only played this course once (T58 in 2016). About as bad as it gets off the tee, ranking 206^th in SG:OTT (losing 1.483 strokes/round) thanks to hitting it short and missing fairways. Hasn’t been scoring as well as a strong putter should thanks to poor play OTT.

You can follow me on Twitter @adalyfrey and good luck this week!