The First Tee – Shriners Open by Adam Daly

Cut at last, cut at last, thank Tiger almighty, there’s a cut at last. (Sanderson Farms as a secondary contest doesn’t count). The Tour heads to Las Vegas for the Shriner’s Hospitals for Children Open, a great week to take care of some charities that also has a decent field thanks to being in Vegas. The names at the top won’t jump out at anyone that’s not a golf nut, but it’s good enough for November golf.

This Week

THE COURSE

Shriner’s takes place at TPC Summerlin, unfortunately a pretty typical TPC course (Weed/Zoeller design) that doesn’t offer much in the way of excitement but should see plenty of scoring. There were 1820 birdies and 61 eagles made here last year and the winning score was Rod Pampling’s -20. Since the 2004 iteration (when it had Justin Timberlake attached), the worst score was Smylie Kaufman’s -16 in the 2016 season which was just the second time it was below -20 in the past 13 years.

One part of what makes this such an easy course to score on is the short length – only 7255 yards for a par-71, with two of the three par-5s being very short (560/563 yards) and a couple par-4s below 390 yards. It’s also played at altitude, so the course actually plays slightly shorter than its official yardage. One thing to note: the fairways typically narrow after the 300-yard mark and approach shots are incredibly easy from the fairways, so longer hitters will club down and shorter hitters with the altitude will see a boost with the driver, so it should be fairly even off the tee; if anything, pay more attention to the golfers that consistently hit the fairway from the tips.

On approach, golfers will be aiming for large greens that are incredibly easy to hit, thanks to their size and the overall (boring) design of the course. There’s no real range on this course that sees more action than any other, as all PGA shot distances (i.e. 50-125, 125-150, etc.) are all hit from at 15% or higher – golfers that hit well from the shorter distance have a small advantage, but it’s not noticeable enough to target.

The bentgrass greens play slow-ish relative to some of the courses seen after the fall swing season (~11 on the stimp), but should be relatively easy for even bad putters. There’s lots of undulation in the greens, but they overall don’t offer many challenges. Missing the greens won’t cause too many issues as far as saving par goes – although with the different altitude, reading how much wedge to hit will be different from most other courses golfers are used to which will mean an adjustment – but missing out on birdies will hurt more than a bogey.

STATS

The Strokes Gained stats to focus on in order (not including Tee to Green):

• Approach
• Off-The-Tee
• Putting
• Around the Green

Counting stats to focus on in order:

• Birdie or Better %
• Driving Accuracy
• Par-4 Scoring
• Greens in Regulation %
• Bogey Avoidance %

The Golfers

Patrick Cantlay ($9700): Cantlay went 13/13 in made cuts last season in one of the best stories of the year – including a 2^nd at Valspar and a 3^rd at RBC Heritage to go with 8 top-25 finishes – and his price tag still doesn’t reflect how good he is. Cantlay was elite both off the tee (10^th in SG: OTT) and getting to the green (14^th in SG:T2G), but his main struggles were courses where scrambling or sand would come into play. At TPC Summerlin that’s not a concern, so he should be locked in this week even at pretty high ownership numbers.

Cantlay’s numbers from the stat categories:

1. Birdie or Better% – 21.41%, 41^st
2. Driving Accuracy % – 61.47%, 81^st
3. Par-4 Scoring – 4.01, 27^th
4. Greens in Reg % – 69.21%, 13^th

Although the accuracy doesn’t jump off the page, Cantlay’s ability to find the green even after missing the fairway is close to elite, and he’ll get some heavy scoring done on the three par-5s which should help him pay off his cheap-ish salary.

Values:

William McGirt ($7700): $7700 is technically $200 more than normal for the value plays section, but go fuck yourselves his price tag doesn’t reflect his upside and he works well with Brian Stuard. Although McGirt missed the cut here last year, he has an 8^th, 33^rd, and and 28^th place finish in his other three attempts, and fits the mould of the course very strongly. He’s accurate off the tee (7^th), hits plenty of greens in regulation (45^th), and traditionally is one of the best par-4 scorers out there.

Brian Stuard ($6900): Stuard is deadly accurate off the tee and has a T15 here (2014), but has also missed two cuts (’17 and ’15) which will make him a pretty high-risk/high-reward play. From a statistical perspective, Stuard sat 5^th in Driving Accuracy last year (71.32%) but didn’t gain strokes off the tee thanks to his short hitting; with an average of only 272 off the tee, it makes sense that his SG: Off the Tee shows poorly. On this track at this elevation, that’ll be mitigated and his play from in tight is very solid (32^nd from 50-125) which will have an impact.

Other values: Scott Brown ($7400), Scott Piercy ($7400), Beau Hossler ($7100)

Good luck this week! You can follow me on Twitter @adalyfrey if you have any questions, and my DMs are always open.