The First Tee – Shriners Open

It’s finally back to regular golf: a full field and a two-day cut!

This Week

THE COURSE

The Shriners Hospital for Children’s Open takes place at TPC Summerlin, which is a typical TPC course that doesn’t offer much in the way of excitement but should see plenty of scoring. Since the 2004 iteration, the lowest winning score was last year’s -9 (Cantlay), but beyond that it’s dropped below -20 just twice (-16 and -19) – a pretty crazy spread over 14 events.

One part of what makes this such an easy course to score on is the short length – only 7255 yards for a par-71, with two of the three par-5s being very short (560/563 yards) and a couple par-4s below 390 yards. It’s also played at altitude, so the course actually plays slightly shorter than its official yardage. One thing to note: the fairways typically narrow after the 300-yard mark and approach shots are incredibly easy from the fairways, so longer hitters will club down and shorter hitters with the altitude will see a boost with the driver, so it should be fairly even off the tee; if anything, pay more attention to the golfers that consistently hit the fairway from the tips.

On approach, golfers will be aiming for large greens that are incredibly easy to hit, thanks to their size and the overall (boring) design of the course. There’s no real range on this course that sees more action than any other, as all PGA shot distances (i.e. 50-125, 125-150, etc.) are all hit from at 15% or higher – golfers that hit well from the shorter distance have a small advantage, but it’s not noticeable enough to target.

The bentgrass greens play slow-ish relative to some of the courses seen after the fall swing season (~11 on the stimp), but should be relatively easy for even bad putters. There’s lots of undulation in the greens, but they overall don’t offer many challenges. Missing the greens won’t cause too many issues as far as saving par goes – although with the different altitude, reading how much wedge to hit will be different from most other courses golfers are used to which will mean an adjustment – but missing out on birdies will hurt more than a bogey.

STATS

The Strokes Gained stats to focus on in order (not including Tee to Green):

• Approach
• Off-The-Tee
• Putting
• Around the Green

Counting stats to focus on in order:

• Birdie or Better %
• Par-4 Scoring
• Greens in Regulation %
• Driving Distance
• Distance from the Center of the Fairway

Top-Tier Golfer

Tony Finau ($11300)

Pros: Finished T16 here last year and 2016, finished T7 in 2015, and is coming off a playoff runner-up at the WGC last week. His big length off the tee is always a great equalizer on a track where birdies and eagles make such a difference, as Tony last year ranked 4^th in Driving Distance and 11^th in birdies per round. He makes all his money on the par-4s and -5s, and hit a massive 70.51% of greens last year which will help his poor putting.

Cons: Coming over from the other side of the world, and could be a WD risk is the main concern beyond Tony’s price point. Beyond that, you could consider his poor accuracy off the tee – he ranked an awful 180^th in accuracy last year with just 54.55% of fairways hit – as well as his poor putting. His putting historically has been much worse than his rank of T65 in that category, so it remains to be seen whether last year was an aberration on the greens or if he’s figured it out a touch.

 

Gary Woodland ($9700)

Pros: Gary is basically the slightly-discounted version of Tony Finau, as a long off-the-tee hitter who should find a ton of success in a birdie-fest. Woodland has great form off a T5 at CIMB and a solo second at the CJ Cup, and has a T18 and T67 at this event. He ranked a fantastic 19^th in SG: Tee to Green last year (4^th OTT/21^st APP) by smashing it 300.6 yards on average (all drives) and hitting the 10^th-most greens in regulation (71.01%.) He crushes par-5s and had an overall BoB% of 21.98% last season.

Cons: Putting is always what does Woodland in, and his 162^nd-rank in three-putt avoidance / 104^th rank in SG: Putting are clear examples of that; he converted 30.27% of birdie putts, but that also includes the two-putts on par-5s where he botched an eagle putt. A combination of a poor putter and bad play around the green (-0.255 strokes per round) have hurt him in the past and probably will continue to.

OTHER: Patrick Cantlay ($9900)

 

Value Golfer (below $8000)

Bronson Burgoon ($7800):

Pros: Off a T2 at the CIMB Classic – another birdie-fest – Burgoon is actually one of the better values in the field; he had a relatively good season last year, with a T6 and T2 at the Quicken Loans and JDC respectively, and made 11 cuts. Statistically, he ranked 71^st in SG:T2G (not ideal), but he’s a longish hitter off the tee (41^st) and was strong on approach (42^nd SG:App / 54^th GIR%.) Very good on par-5s and had the 37^th-best Birdie or Better % which is so important at a tournament where scores can get wild.

Cons: He only has one finish at the course, a missed cut in 2016. His play around the green is one of the major reasons he wasn’t better in 2018, but that shouldn’t much matter here; he did rank 188^th in SG: ARG though, and lost on average 0.307 strokes per round there. Burgoon historically hasn’t been much good on par-4s – he made birdie or better on only 16.51% – and his overall par-4 average is a dismal 4.05.

 

Austin Cook ($7800):

Pros: Finished T20 here last year, and only missed five cuts in 29 events last year – including a win and eight top-25 finishes. Cook has always been an extremely good putter (37^th last year) which has helped him convert 31.04% of birdie looks on the greens, and pick up a birdie average of 3.92/round; he’s been very good on par-3s and ranked 34^th last year in BoB%. Very accurate off the tee.

Cons: Although he had a good finish here last year, he missed the cut in both 2016 and 2017. Cook is very reliant on the putter and his accuracy, as he’s one of the shorter players off the tee (130^th in Driving Distance) and actually loses strokes on approach. If golf started with the ball on the greens, Cook would probably win five times a year on Tour, but alas.

You can follow me on Twitter @adalyfrey and good luck this week!