The First Tee – Sentry Tournament of Champions – by Adam Daly

Golf at last, golf at last, thank Big Cat almighty, there’s golf at last! The 2018 season is about to kick off, the FGI team is all set for another great (profitable) year, and what better way than a 34-man Tournament of Champions in Kapalua?

THE COURSE

The Sentry Tournament of Champions (formerly SBS Tournament of Champions) takes place at the Plantation Course at Kapalua in beautiful Hawaii – that can occasionally get hit by some weather doldrums, but is typically everything you’d want golf to look like when you’re sitting at home in another Canadian (or Minnesotan) winter: blue skies, green Bermuda grass, and 34 winners from the 2017 PGA season.

The Plantation Course is a bit of an odd course from the scorecard, being that it’s a par-73; the course has four very simple par-5s (three between 521-555 yards with the third sitting at 663), eleven par-4s (only four of which are over 400 yards), and only three par-3s. It sits at 7,452 yards.

With this being the first tournament of the year and the strength of the field sitting as high as it is, the set-up couldn’t be better for low-scoring golf: the worst winning score was Dustin Johnson’s -16 in 2013 (in bad weather and only 54 holes), and it typically sits in the low -20s.

One of the factors that helps make Plantation so easy is the absurd width of the fairways – at 300 yards out, the average width of the fairway is 62 yards across. Compare that to a Pete Dye ‘accuracy’ course like Harbour Town (RBC Heritage), where the average fairway width at 300 yards is only 21 yards across. The course is littered with fairway bunkers but very few dangerous areas off the tee, so players this week can uncork the driver on basically every hole – but often don’t, looking at approach shot dispersions.

With the ease of the off-the-tee game, the great differentiator this week will be approach shots, specifically the wedges and short irons – 32% of approach shots come below 125 yards. Hitting the greens shouldn’t be too tough: the Bermuda grass greens are very large (7120 sq. ft per FutureOfFantasy). The greens are undulating and hilly, and the large breaks are designed similar to Augusta (but much, much slower), so pinpoint accuracy on the approach will be key.

STATS

The Strokes Gained stats to focus on in order (not including Tee to Green):

• Approach
• Putting – Strong putters have an obvious advantage on these greens when compared to other tracks where putting skill is mitigated a bit. Normally there’s a lot of variance in putting so I don’t put much weight in it, but it has a much higher correlation than normal.
• Off-the-Tee
• Around the Green

Counting stats to focus on in order:

• Birdie or Better %
• Approach 50-125 Yards
• Scrambling %
• Greens in Regulation %
• Driving Distance – D.D. doesn’t have a huge correlation at this course, but it does have a strong correlation to making birdies.

The Golfers

Justin Thomas ($11100): This may be a good spot to get the reigning champion at lower-than-expected ownership (relative to the size of the field), with JT priced at the top of the field ahead of past winners Jordan Spieth and Dustin Johnson; Thomas won last year as he went nuclear to kick off his 2017, and he should be able to keep that up this week.

Thomas was the best golfer from 50-125 yards out last year (15’6” from the cup on average) and was the sixth-best golfer in SG: Approach. He’s dynamite with wedges and short irons in his hands, and with the ability to smash driver at Plantation without fear of going wild off the tee, he should consistently be in strong positions to score. His overall proximity to the hole was 5^th last year, and he only really struggled from 175 yards and further, which won’t be a concern here at all.

On the greens, JT has fairly pedestrian numbers for an “elite” golfer: 47^th in SG: Putting, 46^th in 3-Putt Avoidance, and 110^th in Putts Inside 10’. Where he’ll shine relative to the field is his numbers outside 10’ – he was second in 1-Putt %, and 19^th/27^th/40^th/23^rd from 10-15/15-20/20-25/Outside 25, respectively.

He can bomb it (8^th in Driving Distance, 6^th in SG: Tee to Green) which helped lead him to the second-most eagles (per hole) last season, and he had the best Birdie or Better % both overall and on Par-4s. Look for him to put up numbers in bunches and walk away as the repeat champ.

Also consider: Dustin Johnson ($10300) – a past winner here, the world ranked #1, dynamite in the key stats. His price is a little out of whack, so he’ll definitely garner some ownership.

 

Values:

Russell Henley ($7800): Henley has finished T3 here (2015), tends to show up in Hawaii (1^st, 51^st, T17, T13), and is absolutely nails on Bermuda grass. With all the Augusta comparisons at this track, Henley has finishes of 31, 21, 11 at the Masters since missing the cut in 2013. Although form isn’t much of a deciding factor given all the breaks in the schedule, Henley last missed a cut at St. Jude’s in June.

Statistically, Henley checks a good number of boxes relative to his price: he’s an excellent Bermuda putter that avoids 3-putts tremendously (24^th), scores well on par-4s (24^th P4BoB%) and in general (33^rd in BoB%), and is better than average from 50-125 out.

Other values: Wesley Bryan ($6200), Adam Hadwin ($6600)

Good luck this week! You can follow me on Twitter @adalyfrey if you have any questions, and my DMs are always open.