The First Tee – Sentry Tournament of Champions

This Week

The new year is upon us and golf is back, with the Sentry Tournament of Champions taking place in Hawaii, at the Plantation Course at Kapalua. This is a small-field tournament (last year’s winners) with no cut, with the winning score typically in the -20 to -25 range (although Jordan Spieth won with a -30 just four years ago).

The Course

After the 2019 ToC, Kapalua closed for major renovations, but there won’t be much impact for the professionals. The fairways were re-grassed, the bunkers got better drainage systems installed to combat heavy rain, and the greens were re-done with all new TifEagle Bermuda. The new greens are the only change that could impact play compared to prior years, as new grass takes a couple years to really take hold; the greens will be much firmer than years prior until the grass matures, so approaches will be tougher to position and hold.

The Plantation Course is one of the (ever rare) par-73 courses on tour, with four par-5s, eleven par-4s, and only three par-3s. It plays officially at 7596 yards this year, although it’s actually not as long as that yardage makes it sound; three par-4s play outside 500 yards, but the remaining eight par-4s are below 430 yards and the longest par-3 is 219. Three of the par-5s are manageable distances and reachable in two – nothing beyond 550 – but the 18^th hole is a whopping 677 yards.

The other aspect of this course that makes it not that long is that a lot of the holes play downhill, which adds extra roll-out unless the course is soaked. Weather will be a factor in that regard, but the course is also wide open to the elements so if the wind picks up that’ll be something to consider.

Fairways at Plantation are wide – the average width at the 300-yard marker is an incredible 62 yards – and with little in the way of hazards, golfers can hit driver as often as they like and they do: the all-drive distance over the past five years averages 293 yards, and Plantation also sees the longest drives on tour most years. Because of the fairway width, fairways are hit at ~70% clip, and misses are usually fine as the only hazards are scattered trees and fairway bunkers.

Approaching the green is the key to winning here as it is most weeks, with most approach shots coming in the 125-150-yard and 150-175-yard range. The course is Augusta-like with undulation in the fairways, which means the bonus of added distance off the tee can be countered with weird lies and the ball below the feet at times.

The Bermuda greens here are slow (9.5-10’ on the stimpmeter) but very large with an average size of 8,000 sq. ft. so they’re rarely missed. It’s tough to stick it close to the pin thanks to the shaping and undulation on the greens, so although 75% of greens in hit in regulation, birdie putts often come from 30+ feet away. The average proximity to the hole last year was 38’11” (sixth-toughest), which was actually the second-best proximity here over the past five years. Golfers that excel at lag putts should find success.

Comparable courses/events:

Waialae Country Club (Sony Open) – Another Hawaii course, the Sony Open is a birdie-fest with slow Bermuda greens that’s open to the elements. The major difference between the two courses is that Waialae features much more narrow fairways, but greens get hit at a comparable clip and there’s some leaderboard overlap – Patton Kizzire won the Sony in ’18 and finished T8 at Plantation as an example of a “lesser” player finding success at both courses.

Augusta National (The Masters) – The rolling fairways and wild Bermuda greens are very comparable, and longer hitters find success at both courses. The best in class play both events which is why there’s such a leaderboard overlap, but Spieth/Dustin Johnson/Jon Rahm/etc. usually play tremendously well at both, and last year’s winner (Xander Schauffele) finished T2 at Augusta.

STATS

The Strokes Gained stats to focus on in order (not including Tee to Green):

• Approach
• Putting
• Off-the-Tee
• Around the Green

Counting stats to focus on in order:

• Birdie or Better %
• Approach 150-175 Yards
• Putting Inside 10’
• Greens in Regulation %
• Driving Distance
• Approach 125-150 Yards

Top-Tier Golfers

Jon Rahm ($11400): Last season on the PGA Tour, Rahm was the tenth-best player from tee-to-green (+1.17SG/round) thanks to dominant play off the tee (fifth), above-average approach play (34^th), and play around the green that didn’t cost him anything (78^th). His putter was on fire – he finished 36^th in SG: Putting – especially from inside 10’, where he hit on 89.01% of putts (20^th).

Rahm’s a big-hitting golfer (11^th in all drive distance) who scores at an elite rate which is perfect for a no-cut event; his 24.92% Birdie or Better rate last year was good for T4. At last year’s ToC, Rahm put up 19 birdies and gained 7.05 strokes from tee-to-green, but was done in with poor putting.

At the Tournament of Champions and the Masters, Rahm has chalked up finishes of 4^th and T9 (Augusta), and T8 and solo second at Kapalua. He’s never played the Sony Open, but his strong finishes in the other two tournaments is both a testament to his true talent, and an encouraging sign for this week.

Collin Morikawa ($8600): Between the 2019 and 2020 seasons, Morikawa only has 40 measured rounds to his name, so his statistics don’t actually “qualify” to be listed in the official standings, but the raw stats show a player that should find a ton of success at Kapalua:

• 09 SG: Approach over those 40 rounds (+0.927SG/round, would’ve been third in 2019)
• 81% Putts made Inside 10’ over those 40 rounds (would be 30^th in 2019)
• 52% BoB% in 2019 (would be third in 2019)
• -0.293 relative to par from 125-150 yards out
• -0.176 relative to par when hitting from the fairway, which he accomplished 72.1% of the time

Morikawa didn’t miss a cut on tour last year (14/14) and finished in the top-10 five times, which includes his win at the Barracuda, and a T2 at the 3M Open. He hasn’t played with competition this good since the Zozo (T22), but he did play the Dunlop Phoenix at the end of November and finished T5. Unfortunately, Morikawa has no experience at the comparable courses or experience at Kapalua.

Honourable mention: Justin Thomas ($11200)

Value Golfer (below $8000)

Matthew Wolff ($7900): Wolff played 11 events last year (including the WMPO as an amateur) and picked up his win at the 3M Open, which was his only top-10 (excluding the QBE Shootout) but one of five top-25 finishes; he missed only one cut. Like Morikawa, Wolff has no comp. course experience and has obviously not played the Tournament of Champions before.

Also like Morikawa, Wolff didn’t play enough rounds to qualify statistically, but the big hitter had phenomenal scoring numbers in 2019 by making birdie or better on 25.1% of holes and averaging 4.34 birdies per round. Part of that strong scoring is due to his play off the tee – his all drive distance was 296.9 yards (T16) – but the other part of the scoring is his putting; inside 10’, Wolff has made 88.59% of putts over last season and this season (528/596), converting birdie putts 35.61% of the time.

He was very strong on short approaches last year (T4 relative to par from 50-125 and T13 RTP from 125-150), and when he’s hitting from the fairway – which he should do consistently this week thanks to the course setup – he’s aces; in the 2020 season Wolff is -0.206 relative to par when approaching from the fairway (T20), and last year he was -0.163 to par (T4).

 

Kevin Kisner ($7700): It’s no surprise that the South Carolina-born, Georgia Bulldog-educated Kisner is more comfortable with Bermuda grass (in terms of scoring), so that bodes well for this week. That fact checks out with his course history and comp. course history, as Kisner has finished ninth and T17 at Kapalua, has two top-5 finishes at Waiale (and a T25), and has never missed a cut at Augusta in four attempts. Kisner is coming off a T8 and T7 at the unofficial QBE Shootout and Hero, but managed 24 made cuts in 28 events last year with ten of those being top-25 finishes.

That Kisner managed such a good year on tour while struggling statistically is impressive, because he was a measly 83^rd in SG: Tee-to-Green, and he only hit 66.99% of greens in regulation last year. Part of the poor T2G number is from losing strokes around the green, but he also ranked only 74^th off the tee and 52^nd on approach; Kisner’s not a long hitter which isn’t ideal for scoring, but should be fine at this course with all the added roll in the fairways.

Kisner is nails with the putter inside 10’ (ninth last year), has strong par-4 scoring (3.99, 23^rd) and finds most of his success with shorter irons which will be fine here.

Honourable mention: Keith Mitchell ($7000)

 

You can follow me on Twitter @adalyfrey and good luck this week!