The First Tee – Sentry Tournament of Champions

The Tournament of Champions is a no-cut, short-field event, so as always: consider playing SE/3- or 5-max if you don’t have the resources to mass multi enter. But hey, golf is back!

THE COURSE

The ToC takes place at the Plantation Course at Kapalua in Hawaii, which is one of the rare par-73 courses that golfers will see: four extremely scoreable par-5s, eleven par-4s, and three par-3s. Plantation is very open to the elements, so weather will be a major factor in how scores play out, but typically golfers shoot very well, so expect a birdie-fest.

Sitting at 7,452 yards, Plantation seems long at first, but so much of the course plays downhill and the extra par-4 end up shortening the track a bit. In the past, both bombers and short knockers have won, so there isn’t much of a prototype to focus on this week when looking for a winner – but as I mention pretty often, distance is a big factor in what goes into making birdie, so default goes to longer hitters.

Golfers can really unload off the tee regardless if they’re long or short, because the fairways are incredibly wide – 62 yards across on average at the 300 yard marker – and little-to-no hazards off the tee. Trees line the outside of the fairways but they’re loosely packed, and there are plenty of fairway bunkers to catch balls, but there’s not much else beyond that.

One of the keys this week be the approach game, as in the past that has proven to have the biggest impact on finish position. One of the factors that makes Plantation a little different from most courses is that the fairways undulate and weave in the same fashion as Augusta, which means weird lies; most golfers will be approaching greens with just a wedge – even the short hitters.

The large Bermuda greens are also built in the same mold as Augusta, so they’re undulating and hilly which will highlight just how good the approach shot in has to be to stick close. One major difference from Augusta is how slow the greens are here; putting is the second-most important factor this week after approach shots, because so much of the field should be putting themselves in birdie-putt position.

STATS

The Strokes Gained stats to focus on in order (not including Tee to Green):

• Approach
• Putting
• Off-the-Tee
• Around the Green

Counting stats to focus on in order:

• Birdie or Better %
• Approach 50-125 Yards
• Scrambling %
• Greens in Regulation %
• Driving Distance – D.D. doesn’t have a huge correlation at this course, but it does have a strong correlation to making birdies.

Top-Tier Golfer

Webb Simpson ($8500):

Pros: His approach game combined with an excellent putter propelled him to a career resurgence last year as he hit 67.9% GIR and ranked 5^th in SG: Putting. Webb is especially good on approach shots from 50-125 yards, ranking 6^th in proximity last year (16’1”) and scoring a wicked 49-under par on 214 attempts. Webb’s always good with a wedge in his hand, which also explains his great play around the greens (13^th).

Cons: A lack of distance always makes a golfer a tough recommendation, and Webb ranked 132^nd in All Drives distance last year – which also explains his poor showing in SG: Off the Tee. Although his GIR and approach numbers look good, Webb’s typical proximity to the hole (35’3”) was below-average, and he got helped out by the putting mentioned in the Pros section; the main concern with Webb beyond distance is figuring out if he caught lightning in a bottle and had a career year putting that he won’t repeat, or if he’ll continue to putt this well. He’s also not a huge birdie-maker, but at this course he should be fine.

 

Brooks Koepka ($10200):

Pros: Priced as the fourth-most expensive player, even though he’s the world number one. Extremely long hitter (5^th in All Drives distance,) dominant on par-4s and -5s (8^th/3^rd respectively,) and 19^th on Tour in SG:T2G last year. His ranks should be higher, but missing the easy part of the season and playing a bad tournament with a wrist injury make them look worse than they should on the year.

Cons: His putter is one of the only “average” features about him, as he ranked T68 in SG: Putting last year thanks to bad three-putt avoidance; conversely though, Koepka converted the 10^th-best rate of birdie putts (33.42%) so his putting isn’t a major con. On short approach shots, Koepka ranked a dismal 62^nd in proximity to the hole, shooting 29-under par in 136 attempts. There aren’t many holes in his game.

OTHER: Dustin Johnson ($11000)             

 

Value Golfer (below $8000)

Gary Woodland ($8000):

Pros: His tee shots and his approach shots help set Woodland apart on the course, ranking 3^rd in SG: OTT thanks to his massive distance and above-average accuracy, and 24^th in SG: APP thanks to extremely good mid-irons and hitting 70% of greens in regulation. While his approach shots from in close (50-125) aren’t anywhere close to as good as his mid-iron approach shots, he still ranks close to average on short approaches, and his longer approaches bode well for the very score-able par-5s. His long distance off the tee should help set him apart and set him up for birdies and the odd eagle over the length of the tournament.

Cons: Anything around or on the green poses a problem for Woodland, as last season he ranked 177^th (SG: ARG) and 114^th (SG: P) and converted just 54.4% of par saves and 29.9% of birdie opportunities. From in tight to the green or in the sand, Woodland ranks near the bottom of the PGA in every category, and with tough-ish greens at Plantation in terms of undulation, it could spell trouble for Woody. He’s bad on par-3s.

 

Keegan Bradley ($7300):

Pros: Keegan is extremely good with his irons, ranking second in SG: Approach last year and hitting 69.18% of greens in reg. His average proximity of 34’2” ranked 15^th overall, and he improves that number by 4’ when he’s in the fairway, which is another thing Keegan is a good at – he hit 67.9% of fairways last year which placed him 15^th. At his price tag, his iron play is too good to ignore.

Cons: The putting remains abhorrent: Keegan ranked 174^th last season in SG: Putting, losing 0.358 strokes per round in that category. He rarely converts birdie putts and he’s especially bad outside 10’, and it will be a major, major factor for him – need the rest of his game to stay as strong as it has, and Keegan will need one of those random “good putting” weeks. Beyond that, Keegan’s not the longest hitter – ranking 75 last year with an All Drive average of 288.5 – and so his par-5 numbers don’t jump out much. His overall birdie or better percentage of 21.15% would qualify as below average.

You can follow me on Twitter @adalyfrey and good luck this week!