The First Tee – Sanderson Farms

This Week

The Sanderson Farms Championship has been hosted at the Country Club of Jackson in Mississippi for the past five years, with the winning score ending up in the -16 to -21 range over that time. Don’t look prior to the 2015 season for any course history, as this tournament was previously hosted at Annandale.

The Course

The Country Club of Jackson is a par-72 listed at 7460 yards, with three very easy par-5s (23 combined eagles last year) and a long tougher one at 612 yards that last year ranked as only the ninth-easiest hole on the course. For what’s ostensibly a long course, there actually aren’t that many long holes: only three par-4s play outside 450 yards, and only two par-3s play outside 200 yards; distance will obviously matter – especially on heavy birdie courses – but good iron play is more important this week.

On average, the fairways here are only 28-29 yards across (275-300 yard markers) which is just a touch below average but the fairways don’t get hit at a good clip – just 55.4% last year and 54% the year before, which makes this one of the ten hardest courses in terms of accuracy off the tee. The course is wide open though, with some very loosely-spaced trees and some thin rough the only defenses off the tee. Most golfers here will still pull driving irons or woods off the tee, so a good driver of the ball or a naturally-long hitter will have an advantage.

Approach shots will be hitting into large, fast Bermuda greens and will need to avoid water on seven holes. Historically, the greens are hit here at a great clip (between 65-73% over the past five years) which shows how unimportant hitting the fairway is; most approaches will be in the 50-125 range which means good wedge play, but looking at players who excel outside 200 yards will help on the long par-3s and -5s.

The greens themselves shouldn’t offer too much trouble, as they’re pretty straight-forward reads and not enough undulation to really mess people up. It’s pretty rare to see three-putts here (except from horrendous putters) and with scoring so high here, bogeys made on the green is a death knell this week.

Comparable courses/events:

TPC Sawgrass (The PLAYERS) – Both par-72s with similar overall scoring (although CCoJ is an easier course) and similar fairways. Fast Bermuda greens and comparable weather with the PLAYERS having moved to March.

TPC San Antonio (Valero Texas Open) – Almost the same setup (par 72, ~7400 yards) with tight fairways outside of 300 yards, and straight-forward Bermuda greens. Greens hit at a lower rate here and scoring is a bit muted with winners in the mid-teens instead of high-teens, but this course is a great comp for Jackson.

STATS

The Strokes Gained stats to focus on in order (not including Tee to Green):

• Approach
• Off the Tee
• Putting
• Around the Green

Counting stats to focus on in order:

• Birdie or Better %
• One-Putt %
• Approach Shots: 50-125 Yards
• Good Drive %
• Par-5 Scoring

Top-Tier Golfers

Scottie Scheffler ($9900): In his debut here last year Scheffler finished T45 with 15 birdies to eight bogeys and a double, and he’s entering the week off a T7 at the Greenbriar – and on an incredible four week run going back to the Korn Ferry Tour, where he grabbed a win, T11 and T7 before jumping onto the big Tour. He also finished T20 at the Valero this year.

Scheffler only had 14 measured rounds last year so take his stats with a dose of salt, but in those 14 rounds he would rate as:

• 10^th in SG: Off the Tee (54^th distance / 51^st accuracy)
• 27^th in SG: Approach and 2^nd in GIR%
• 7^th in SG: Tee to Green
• 7^th in Par-4 Scoring (3.97) / 61^st in Scoring Average

The main concern with Scheffler is his putter as he lost 0.78 strokes per round on the greens and only converted birdie putts 26.8% of the time, but he also avoided three-putts well and is very familiar with the Texas-style Bermuda greens here, as he’s a native of Dallas and played college golf for the Longhorns.

Brandt Snedeker ($10700): Sneds has no history here, but he had an excellent year on tour with only three missed cuts in 23 events, which included five top-10 finishes and 11 top-25 finishes overall. At comp. courses, Snedeker’s finished as high as T5 at Sawgrass (2019) and fourth at TPC San Antonio (2011, finished 15^th in 2018).

He’s an excellent putter and has been throughout his career so that shouldn’t regress – he finished 12^th in SG: Putting last year – and his overall play from tee to green has been solid although not outstanding, as he ranked 63^rd in that category. The main reason Sneds suffers T2G is his lack of distance off the tee (155^th last year), but his approach game was also a bit off last season as he only hit 64.9% of greens in regulation.

He’s an excellent par-4 player and he’s phenomenal around the greens with a wedge in his hand, so he should be able to take advantage of the shorter holes and consistently birdie the par-5s.

Value Golfer (below $8000)

Sebastian Munoz ($7900): Although his numbers from last year aren’t sparkling from tee to green (77^th, +.268/rd), Munoz managed to pick up birdies at a great pace – enough to make him a very viable play this week; he ranked 60^th, 65^th and 22^nd in par-3, -4 and -5 Birdie or Better % which ranked him 30^th overall at 23.13%.

Munoz is an above-average hitter in terms of length off the tee (63^rd) although his accuracy suffers, but this week that shouldn’t be much of a problem as most of the field will miss the fairway. He’s lost strokes to the field due to the accuracy and ranks 122^nd off the tee, but he made up for that play off the tee by hitting 68.26% of greens in regulation and absolutely dominating with his wedges: T10th in proximity from 50-125 yards and -31 relative to par (-0.242) from that area which is good for T7. He’s also been good relative to par from outside 200 yards (T8).

Munoz doesn’t make bogey with his putter often and is very strong putting inside 10’, and he’s coming off a T7 last week at the Greenbriar. Since missing the cut at the Rocket Mortgage Munoz has made seven straight cuts which includes three top-11 finishes, and he’s a perfect 2/2 at this course with finishes of T35 and T50 in 2017 and 2019 respectively.

Doc Redman ($7200): He’s got no course history here but is coming off a T24 last week at the Greenbrier where he flashed a lot of skill. Much like Scheffler, Redman’s stats from last year don’t qualify as he only played 16 measured rounds, but if he did they would sparkle:

• 10^th in SG: Off the Tee (19^th distance, 24^th accuracy)
• 2^nd in GIR (71.67%) although only 119^th in SG: Approach
• 8^th in Birdie or Better % (24.72%)

Obviously his Scoring numbers are a little off due to a small sample, but Redman made 16 birdies on only 80 par-3s and really excelled on shorter holes (average birdie distance was just 168.3 yards).

Last week at the Greenbrier, Redman lost strokes putting (-0.88/rd) but was very strong tee to green (22^nd) and he should be able to carry that over to this week. His putter is a weak spot and will continue to be, but at his price tag he offers a lot of value.

 

You can follow me on Twitter @adalyfrey and good luck this week!