The First Tee – Safeway Open

The 2019 season kicks off this week at the Steele Safeway Open, after an embarrassing show of golf in Paris at the Ryder Cup. Phil is the only golfer coming back from across the pond for this one, so travel won’t be an impact for the rest of the field; as always, the swing season events feature a lot of mid-tier regulars and Web.com graduates.

This Week

THE COURSE

The Safeway Open takes place at Silverado Country Club (North) in the Napa Valley, for the fifth time – ignore any tournament history before 2015. Scores have been fairly consistent here, -15 to the winner three of four times (-18 the other), and the cut coming below par every time.

As a par-72 that plays short at 7,166 yards, golfers tend to hit it long off the tee – averaging 299 yards last year – with little concern for accuracy; Silverado is actually one of the top-10 toughest courses in terms of fairways hit, sitting 10^th or harder over the past three years. Golfers don’t have to worry too much about missed fairways as the rough is thin and cut short, so the only concern about uncorking drives is the fact that the fairways are lined with trees.

The four par-5s at Silverado are extremely scoreable and 21 eagles were made on the -5s in each of the past two years; scoring well on these holes is key this week, as the top of the leaderboard is typically littered with players that found success on them. The par-5s range from 538 yards at the short end up to 575 yards, which are all relatively short, and par is a horrific number.

There’s only one par-4 above 450 yards, with six of the -4s sitting between 400-450 and three below 400, but the key for golfers this week beyond scoring on par-5s will be avoiding trouble on the par-3s: the two toughest holes on the course are the 240- and 212-yard par-3s, and the 15^th at 189 yards is the fifth-toughest hole.

Most approach shots here will be of the short/wedge variety, as almost 30% of approach shots come between 50-125 yards out – and that number is skewed a bit by longer approaches on par-5s. The approach shots aren’t tough in any way, with 66.82% of greens hit in regulation, and the average proximity to the hole is extremely close on average at just 36’ (30’ from the fairway.) The only concern for golfers approaching the green is missing into a bunker, as the greenside bunkers here are tough – and there’s enough sloping towards the bunkers from the greens that players will find themselves in the sand often enough.

Once on the greens, putting isn’t nearly as impactful as other courses, as the greens are slow and bumpy poa annua. You can roster bad putters here given the ease of hitting the greens and how slow they are.

The Stats

The Strokes Gained stats to focus on in order (not including Tee to Green):

• Approach
• Putting
• Off-The-Tee
• Around the Green

Counting stats to focus on in order:

• Birdie or Better %
• Approach Shots 50-125 Yards
• Par-5 Birdie or Better %
• Driving Distance
• Par-3 Scoring

 

Top-Tier Golfer

Joaquin Niemann ($10300) – please note that Niemann’s stats are technically unofficial because he only had 42 measured rounds

Pros: Was 10^th in SG: Tee to Green last year, thanks to being long off the tee (296 all drives) and ranking 6^th in both SG:OTT and SG:APP. Niemann was a whopping 25-under par (21^st) between 50-125 yards out, with an average proximity to the hole of just 16’11”, and he managed to hit 72.98% of greens in regulation. He made 62 birdies or better on par-5s (50%), had an overall BoB% of 25.25%, and sat just below par on par-3s at 2.99 – reminder that this is a slightly small sample, though.

Cons: Niemann’s concerns are mostly on and around the greens, as he averaged -0.183 strokes around the greens per round and was awful hitting out of the sand, and he was an awful 40-over par when he missed the green and ended up in the rough. He would have ranked 114^th in SG: Putting if he qualified, and really struggled putting when he was outside 10’. His price is a bit heavy, and he has no course history.

Emiliano Grillo ($10000)

Pros: His putting was phenomenal last season, 12^th in Strokes Gained with a birdie conversion rate of 31.16% (44^th). He’s 40^th in SG: T2G (0.620/round) thanks to accurate play off the tee and strong approaches that see him hitting 69.20% of greens in regulation. He’s very solid on par-3s and -4s, scores at a great rate of 3.89 birdies per round and makes BoB on 21.80% of holes, great for DFS purposes. He won here back in 2016 and has two top-28 finishes in the 2017/2018 seasons.

Cons: There aren’t many holes in Grillo’s game, beyond play around the greens and distance off the tee. That lack of distance will put him behind the pack on the crucial par-5s, and his ranking of 143^rd relative to par from 50-125 yards out (-20 on 170 attempts) isn’t the prettiest although his proximity from that range is only 17’11”. When Grillo misses the fairway – which isn’t often, to be fair – he ranks 186^th in proximity and sits 75^th relative to par.

 

Value Golfer (below $8000)

Joel Dahmen ($7100):

Pros: At only $7100, Dahmen’s talents from tee to green can’t be ignored: 46^th off the tee, 37^th on approach, and 35^th in T2G overall. He’s a touch below average in distance but he hits the fairways consistently. He’s very good even when he does miss the fairway (12^th RTP/7^th proximity), hits a good chunk of greens in reg (68.82%), and is good at scoring on both par-4s (57^th) and par-5s (56^th).

Cons: Has missed the cut here in his only effort at this course, and struggles in a huge way on the greens (166^th SG: Putting.) He’ll struggle on the par-3s, as he averages 3.04 but hits birdie or better on only 12.32% of those holes – mostly thanks to the bad putter. Reminder that his putting should be mitigated a touch with the slow poa greens, but he’s bad to put it mildly.

John Huh ($6700):

Pros: Strong with his irons relative to his price point, especially from the key 50-125 yard range where he’s 26-under par (162 attempts) with an average proximity of 17’4”. Ranks 60^th in SG: APP and hits 65.80% of greens in regulation. Gains strokes putting (68^th) and is above average at both one-putting and three-putt avoidance. Will have an advantage on the tough par-3s as he’s 10^th in Par-3BoB% and has a Par-3 scoring average of 3.02. Good overall birdie or better numbers, which is huge at his price point for DFS.

Cons:  He’s more accurate than long, which isn’t fantastic on a course where distance will be a factor. He’s missed three of four cuts here – his best finish T35 two years ago. Thanks to his lack of distance, Huh doesn’t exactly light up the par-5s, hitting birdie or better on only 41.37% of those holes.

You can follow me on Twitter @adalyfrey and good luck this week!