The First Tee – RSM Classic

This Week

THE COURSE

The RSM Classic takes place at two courses in Georgia at the Sea Island Resort: the Seaside Course, a par-70 that plays at 7,005 yards and the Plantation Course which is a par-72 listed at 7,058 yards.

I won’t focus much on the Plantation Course, as it only gets played once (pre-cut) to the Seaside’s three rounds; Plantation is the easier course of the two as it has the four par-5s (between 519- and 590-yards) and only two par-4s above 450 yards. Plantation is away from the coast which means it’s more protected from the elements and should be easier to hit the fairways, but the greens are smaller which will put more of an emphasis on good approach shots. Like the Seaside course, the greens here are Bermuda but are relatively straight-forward as far as reading putts and holding greens goes; with the small greens, getting up-and-down or play around the green will be important.

The Seaside Course is a completely different animal, as it’s got very wide fairways but is exposed to the elements, playing close to links-style; it’s a tougher course than Plantation as mentioned, but the par-5s are both very scoreable – they play at 582 and 565 and saw a combined 18 eagles last year – and there are only two par-4s longer than 450 yards. Distance is the great equalizer at Seaside if the wind stays down given the width of the fairways, but if the wind is blowing golfers will aim for lower launch angle tee shots.

On approach, golfers will be shooting at larger greens than on Plantation (typically from the 150-175 range for average-to-short hitters, adjust as needed) but the greens here are tough to hold. The Bermuda greens have lots of undulation and sloping away from pins, so although the greens are generally soft and receptive, there are lots of areas where the ball just won’t stick. For that reason, Scrambling is also important at this course.

STATS

The Strokes Gained stats to focus on in order (not including Tee to Green):

• Approach
• Putting
• Around the Green
• Off the Tee

Counting stats to focus on in order:

• Par-4 Birdie or Better %
• Driving Distance
• Greens in Regulation %
• Scrambling %
• Approach Shots: 150-175 (for the average tee shots, adjust down for bombers)

Top-Tier Golfer

Cameron Champ ($10,900)

Pros: Champ’s distance off the tee will help immensely on the Seaside course with their wide fairways, which should neutralize some of his accuracy concerns, and would go a long way towards putting up birdies and eagles in bunches. He’s been putting very well early in the season, and has hit 75% of greens in regulation so far; Champ comes in with his worst finish a T28 in four events, which includes a win (Sanderson) and a T10 last week.

Cons: He only has 12 measured rounds (16 rounds in total) this season so his stats need to be taken with a grain of salt, and also the quality of his competition needs to be considered as well when it comes to Strokes Gained stats. His Approach numbers haven’t been kind so far and his play around the green even worse, and his accuracy off the tee so far has been EXTREMELY bad.

 

Russell Henley ($9500)

Pros: Henley’s course history at the RSM is pretty appealing: T10 (2017), T6 (2016), T4 (2015) in his last three attempts. Last year, Henley was very strong on approach and deadly accurate off the tee – which will both be huge helps on Plantation – and tends to putt better on Bermuda greens. Henley was 7^th-best relative to par on approach shots from 150-175, which works since he’s an average-to-short hitter off the tee. Strong par-4 scorer.

Cons: Beyond his made cut last week, Henley’s month has been pretty ugly with two straight missed cuts at the Safeway and Shriners. That form is ugly without question, but even an in-form Henley struggles when he misses the green (a LOT!), and his lack of distance as mentioned won’t help. He’s downright bad relative to the field on par-5s.

OTHER: Webb Simpson ($11800)             

 

Value Golfer (below $8000)

Keith Mitchell ($7500):

Pros: He won’t finish in the top-10 but Mitchell always has a ton of DFS relevance thanks to his big hitting: last year, he averaged 4.09 birdies/round (13^th) and had the 12^th-best Birdie or Better %. Beyond that, he crushed par-5s – 17^th in scoring average and 9^th in par-5 BoB%. Although his SG numbers don’t pop, Mitchell had the 10^th-best distance off the tee and still managed 69.42% of greens in regulation.

Cons: Beyond his play off the tee, Mitchell’s strokes gained statistics are ugly to put it mildly: 143^rd in SG: Approach, 133^rd in SG: Around the Green and 184^th in SG: Putting. Of all those categories, the main concern for Mitchell should be the putter, as Mitchell’s fine on approach when he’s sitting in the fairways (which he should do often here.)

 

Ben Silverman ($7500):

Pros: In his only shot at the RSM last year, Silverman finished T8 and is entering this week off a T75 (meh) at the Safeway and a T39 at Sanderson Farms. Silverman is one of the better putters in the field, ranking 49^th in SG: Putting last season and he avoided three-putts at a great rate. His main talent is putting to put it mildly, but Silverman has also been good from 150 yards (relative to par.)

Cons: The “course history” must be jacked up in the DraftKings pricing algorithm this week, as Silverman’s recent form wouldn’t justify his price tag at $7500. Beyond his recent form, Silverman’s statistical basis is…bad. Very bad. Last year he ranked 164^th in SG: Tee to Green, and his overall Birdie or Better % of 20.83 is only good for T90. He’s a VERY high-risk/reward play.

You can follow me on Twitter @adalyfrey and good luck this week!